COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 99

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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #981
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Is any of this shit progressing exponentially?
    One (not me) could argue the oppressive and destructive measures that you are so concerned about

    just might be the thing keeping you from observing exponential growth of cases and/or deaths.

  2. #982
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    Show me the growth.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shiva Kaul View Post
    This is the dumbest “citizen journalism” I have seen. videos of empty parking lots somehow imply the medical system isn’t stressed? Did you expect bullets to be flying?

    Yes, surgical centers and other facilities are barren. Most often, because the surgical procedures usually performed there, are very consumptive of PPE. Or, the staff would need to follow unusual contact and droplet precautions, and cannot be supplied with PPE. Because it is in drastically short supply, and this does present an immediate crisis in the medical system, denials on this board notwithstanding.
    Show us a picture of an "overwhemed" hospital here in the US.

  3. #983
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    I am really sick and tired of being told that, because I support the current lockdowns, I obviously just don't understand. Or that I clearly just don't care about the economic plight of small businesses, about workers getting laid of, about the overall economic cost to citizens, etc etc. So, one final time, and for the record: I do understand, and I care about all of these things. I am fully aware that the consequences of the current shutdown are terrible, and I deplore all of them. Moreover, anybody who doesn't is an idiot.

    The awful problem, however, is that -- to use somebody else's better words -- this isn't a choice between one bad outcome (lots of dead people) and another bad outcome (a crashed economy). It's a choice between one bad outcome and *both* bad outcomes. This thing is NOT the flu. If we do nothing, it's capable of killing more than a million of people in the US. And even if the current restrictions were followed religiously, it's still on track to kill at least several times more people than even the worst flu season. And these are *not* just people who were about to die anyway. Also, unlike car accidents and smoking, it's highly infectious. So we can't just leave it up to people to "do the right thing" -- because even of the vast majority of us did, a relatively small fraction of idiots would be enough to screw things up for all of us.

    So -- and this is my final attempt at this -- how the hell do you think the economy will function if this thing is allowed to go more or less unchecked? If you told New Yorkers right now that they are free to go to a restaurant, do you think they would? And we're not even at peak there yet. (Yeah, I know, Texans are a hardier breed.) You just can't have a functioning economy where everybody is worried about catching a disease that has a ~1% overall mortality rate, and about spreading a disease that has a far higher chance yet of killing their more vulnerable loved ones.

    And yes, South Korea and Taiwan and Singapore have managed to suppress the outbreak without such prolonged Draconian measures. That's because they cracked down *hard* much earlier on in their outbreaks, when the numbers were small enough that cracking down could focus on on contact tracing and quarantining. But how the hell are you planning to contact trace and quarantine the quarter of a million *known* cases in the US at this point?

    I don't particularly give a shit whether you believe this, but I don't personally stand to gain one tiny bit from any of this. I'm not a government employee, and while my job is safer than most, I can be laid off. Perhaps more importantly, I strongly support the idea that the state -- and particularly tax payers with relatively secure jobs like me -- should step in to save as many small businesses as possible and help workers who've lost their job. I'd be more than happy to pay significantly higher taxes for that. I've also already volunteered whatever skills I have to help with the current crisis, not least in the hope that such efforts may reduce the amount of time this crises will last. And if some miracle drug or vaccine comes along sooner than expected, or if there is any evidence that the outbreak is suppressed better and earlier than it looks, I'll be the first to say that restrictions should be (carefully and gradually) released, so that the economy can get going again.

    Lastly, I just wanted to say "Thank You" to Bruno. It's pretty amazing to see a health-care worker being accused of not having skin in the game. His worry that he might get infected seems pretty fucking rational to me. And since he is apparently going to work in spite of this worry, that makes him pretty fucking courageous in my book.

  4. #984
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Dr. Kaul, you and your buddies better find some more bodies pretty fucking soon, because the rest of us are getting tired of this bullshit.
    I do think outcomes will worsen (largely via nosocomial infection) if this state of affairs persists. But right now, my point is mostly about occupational safety, and the fact that much of the medical system is currently disabled.

    We already have nurses on gag orders about their lack of PPE, quitting their jobs out of personal safety concerns. And ambulances in NY which no longer take patients in cardiac arrest to the ER.

    This is the epicenter of the situation in the US, and it is tailing off right now.
    I expect it to tail off soon - this is not an eternal emergency. Even Cuomo expected a peak in mid-April. I don’t understand why you lump me in with those calling for 3-month lockdowns.

    10 million people have filed for unemployment, and all you can say is that empty hospital parking lots is fake news?
    I think the economic situation is grave, and should soon overrule the PPE / vent / bed situation. (I have the capacity to recognize multiple problems at once.)

    died "of" COVID-19
    if you are going to keep making this distinction (and insinuating that COVID-19 is merely incidental), you need to learn a bit about ICD-10-CM coding. The definition of “died of ___”, in terms of a single cause of death, is specified by a rather complex algorithm. In any case, US death statistics only include cases where COVID-19 was actually determined as a cause that contributed to death.

  5. #985
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    Now that we’re all separated, now that supplies are limited, and now that people are reporting each other for “violations”...

    What’s next? Maybe internet and wireless services are going to have intermittent service, or complete unavailable?

  6. #986
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    It's almost like people are dying *of* COVID-19, not just *with* it.... We should wait before acting though, just to make absolutely sure.
    I'm calling out a straw-man here, as I don't recall anyone stating either the position that 0 people have or will die *of* the disease, or that absolutely nothing should be done about it...

  7. #987
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Is any of this shit progressing exponentially? Anywhere?
    Since you asked so nicely -- COVID-19-related deaths in the US vs time:

    deaths.jpg

    This is a straight-line trend on a semi-log plot. Aka an exponential.

    And yeah, i know -- it's not *exactly* a straight line (because the reproduction rate isn't some God-given physical constant). But it's sure as hell close enough to tell you we have a big problem on our hands.

  8. #988
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    Beautiful graph.

  9. #989
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Beautiful graph.
    Do you know what an exponential is?

  10. #990
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    Quote Originally Posted by lazygun37 View Post
    Do you know what an exponential is?
    Do you know what unemployment is? Bankruptcy? Suicide? The destruction of a life's work? What do you do for a living that causes you to be this obtuse? Do you know what "obtuse" means?

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