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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #1191
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    It's likely there is overreaction in WF/elsewhere. If the goal is to keep hospitals capable of servicing the public (at the expense of other businesses), the goal is not achieved by prematurely cutting services.

  2. #1192
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frank_B View Post
    I have no objection that our response was awful. We weren't prepared. The current administration ignored basic scientific facts and now it's tough to put the smoke back in the box.

    Korea has been through this with SARS, MERS, Swine Flu, and even some TB outbreaks back in the 80's or 90's, I think. If you think that our government is actually capable of mounting a response to where we can get back to an "acceptable" number (close to zero) and then contact trace people, including asymptomatics, by, say, June 1, you are fooling yourself. Wuhan, for example, was on 100% lockdown for 76 days. We are nowhere close to a 100% lockdown, so we're probably talking about double that, with the high probability that the government fucks it up and we start all over again.

    Also, Korea doesn't worry about some of the same privacy issues we have in this country. They're installing apps on people's phones and using them like tracking bracelets. We could learn a lot from Korea in terms of how to test, how to pay for it, why we should wear masks, blah, blah, blah.... But, if you think that people in this country are just going to allow the government to install tracking apps on their phones then you're living in a fantasy land.

    Handling this the way they do in much of Asia would mean that we step on the freedoms of every American and while some won't mind this, all it takes is a minority to refuse.

    Another spending bill is coming up. I would rather they focus it on the 55+ crowd staying home and letting the rest of America go back to work. It'll build herd immunity. It keeps large swaths of the vulnerable population protected, and it gets the economy going. If you're over 55. Groceries will be open an hour or two earlier for you for the foreseeable future. Your paycheck is assured if you're still working. Some younger folks will get it. Some will die. But, at least the bulk of the workforce is working again. The current plan is not tenable, sane, or even healthy for this country.
    Actually, ~97% of the country is now on some sort of lockdown. Unfortunately, this took far to long which will end up prolonging this. Also, unfortunately some states exempted some gatherings as churches which is not going to help. We also need to keep an eye on China regarding when and how to lift the restrictions. You can clearly see them gathering again en mass in public again as soon as the restrictions were lifted, which could increase the likelihood of recurrence.

    BTW, the US is indeed tracking us with our phones as well. So much for privacy/security eh?

    Countries are tracking citizens''' phones because of the coronavirus - Business Insider

    Quote Originally Posted by wiigelec View Post
    No I’m implying that perhaps our current trajectory is already the result of the virus running unchecked and rampant in the community without quarantine, and that the majority of the lockdown is both unnecessary and counterproductive, despite yours and the government’s insistence that without it millions would get really sick and die...

    That's quite a logical leap.

  3. #1193
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrunoLawerence View Post
    You seem to have trouble with long-term and short-term implications. What I am suggesting is the long-term ramifications of not performing the current measures far outweigh any short-term problems we have on the economy by keeping them in place. Also, yes, for the most part people are following the recommendations and it appears to be working. If we do it appropriately it will look like it wasn't needed, but if we don't do it it will look like we should have done it. Which side of that coin would you prefer to be on?
    Somebody else deal with this fool. He thinks we are looking at short-term economic problems, because he doesn't understand economics. He doesn't understand epidemiology either.

  4. #1194
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    I dig this Texas former Congressman...

    End the Shutdown; It’s Time for Resurrection! - LewRockwell

  5. #1195
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Somebody else deal with this fool. He thinks we are looking at short-term economic problems, because he doesn't understand economics.
    BrunoLawrence is either crazy or trolling at this point, but reading his rants is filling in the Joe Exotic-sized hole in my heart now that I've finished Tiger King.

    In my neck of the woods (Columbus, OH) most of the early panickers are starting to come around. The lowering of case projections that came out the last couple days has really rustled some jimmies, in a good way. There's only two women in my social circle who won't let their kids out to play with the neighbors anymore. My gym's FB page is full of people asking them to open back up again.

  6. #1196
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrunoLawerence View Post
    Actually, ~97% of the country is now on some sort of lockdown. Unfortunately, this took far to long which will end up prolonging this. Also, unfortunately some states exempted some gatherings as churches which is not going to help. We also need to keep an eye on China regarding when and how to lift the restrictions. You can clearly see them gathering again en mass in public again as soon as the restrictions were lifted, which could increase the likelihood of recurrence.

    BTW, the US is indeed tracking us with our phones as well. So much for privacy/security eh?

    Countries are tracking citizens''' phones because of the coronavirus - Business Insider
    No. China's lockdown was a 100%, "if you cut the tape we put over your door, then you go make big rocks into smaller rocks at the gulag" type of lockdown. What we have here is a bunch of people largely abiding while enough of the country doesn't. That was my entire point: If you want a fully effective lockdown to work, you have to impinge on people's freedoms the way China and, to some extent, Korea, are doing. Otherwise, you have 95%-ish of the company doing the right thing while the rest of the people still spread the disease, make this thing longer, and ultimately stretch out the inevitable anyway.

    Regarding cell phone tracking:

    I know that when returning to Korea and clearing customs, Korean citizens are sent to a hotel for 14 days. Their phones have an app installed on them and the government specifically tracks their personal movement. They have to check in twice a day on their phone app and report temperature, any new symptoms, etc... That is part of their 14 day quarantine. I am not 100% sure if they are doing the same thing with residents already in the country who test positive. No way in absolute hell would that fly here.

    Again... Keep the most vulnerable at home. We've already proven we're willing to light the fuse on the money cannon. Let the rest of America go back to work.
    Regardless, this is a far cry from the US checking ad data to find where people are clustering. Even so, you can be sure the privacy people will certainly be on this.

  7. #1197
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    That's quite a logical leap.
    Plenty of data supporting the possibility and probability has been presented so far. Perhaps you would be so kind to address any of that in a more specific manner?

    Or are you perhaps one of the policy makers who will be patting themselves on the back when this is all said and done?

  8. #1198
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrunoLawerence View Post
    We also need to keep an eye on China regarding when and how to lift the restrictions.
    The same China that declared no new cases after they kicked out foreign reporters? The same China that conspired with the WHO to downplay the outbreak? The same China who was selected to serve on the UN's Human Rights Council Panel? They're our bellwether for responding to the coronavirus?

  9. #1199
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrunoLawerence View Post
    Actually, ~97% of the country is now on some sort of lockdown. Unfortunately, this took far to long which will end up prolonging this. Also, unfortunately some states exempted some gatherings as churches which is not going to help. We also need to keep an eye on China regarding when and how to lift the restrictions. .
    You are making the assumption that the response (quarantining 100% of the population) is superior than doing nothing at all. China's self report is about as useful as Your food diary.

  10. #1200
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Somebody else deal with this fool. He thinks we are looking at short-term economic problems, because he doesn't understand economics. He doesn't understand epidemiology either.
    What effects do you foresee on the economy if tomorrow morning we open everything back up and rapidly spread the virus? Are people still going to go to your gym? Would you still go out to eat? That may happen for a week or two, then you will start to see the consequences once the virus spreads.

    Quote Originally Posted by ltomo View Post
    BrunoLawrence is either crazy or trolling at this point, but reading his rants is filling in the Joe Exotic-sized hole in my heart now that I've finished Tiger King.

    In my neck of the woods (Columbus, OH) most of the early panickers are starting to come around. The lowering of case projections that came out the last couple days has really rustled some jimmies, in a good way. There's only two women in my social circle who won't let their kids out to play with the neighbors anymore. My gym's FB page is full of people asking them to open back up again.
    Cool, open the gym and let one asymptomatic carrier come in and start working out. Let's see how rapidly it spreads. How many people will be coming back in the next 1-2 weeks? Again, not a difficult concept to understand. This is exactly the type of response that will prolong this!

    BTW, the reason for the lower rates of mortality and hospitalizations compared to previous models is because the original models predicted that only 50% of the country would follow the recommendations. However, > 90% of the country is currently following them. So please continue bitching about being quarantined while you remain quarantined.

    Trump’s top health officials predict diminished coronavirus death toll - POLITICO

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