As far as I can tell, there are fundamentally two different schools of thought represented in this thread:
- Interventionist: that would bI know that many people here have strong ideological objections to lockdowns.e people like me, who think that that "lockdowns" that are being imposed all over the place are a necessary and reasonable response to the outbreak.
- Laissez-Faire: that would be people like Rip and most of the people contributing, who think lockdowns result in an avoidable economic depression that is worse than the outbreak itself would be without any lockdown. (I understand that many people also have strong ideological objections to lockdowns.)
It occurred to me that we actually have real-life examples of interventionist and laissez-faire strategies in the current outbreak. In fact, we have a pair of countries that are pretty similar in many respects, *except* in how the have reacted to the outbreak: Norway and Sweden.
The outbreak began at pretty much the same time in both places. Their populations and population densities are within a factor of two of each other. Sweden is higher on both counts, but even its population density is about 400 times lower than that of NYC, and, in fact, lower than that of Texas, for example.
However, whereas Norway responded to the outbreak with an almost immediate lockdown (before the first reported COVID-19-related death, in fact), Sweden has still not implemented a lockdown as of right now. So comparing Sweden and Norway should be a useful way to see the impact of the two types of strategies.
So I took the most recent version of the JHU data sets for both countries. I decided to focus on deaths, because -- in line with their laissez-faire approach -- Sweden is massively behind in testing. Specifically, Sweden has carried out only 5400 tests per million citizens, whereas Norway has carried out 22,300 tests per million. As a result, I expect case numbers will be far less reliable and meaningful than death numbers (but I can easily produce those also).
Here is the resulting comparison:
sweden_v_norway_lin.jpg
To avoid some of the confusion that's been caused by logarithmic plots, this one is simple linear counts vs time. For completeness, here is the corresponding semilog plot:
sweden_v_norway.jpg
As an interventionist, it seems to me that this comparison is pretty stark. Neither country seems to have reached the peak of the outbreak yet, but Norway has kept the number of deaths far lower -- by a factor of 7 -- and is pretty clearly flattening the curve. It seems to be succeeding in suppressing the outbreak. By contrast, Sweden looks to be in serious trouble.
Given all the discussions we've been having about whether an economy is sustainable in the middle of an unchecked epidemic, I also wondered about the severity of the death toll in Sweden in absolute terms. Looking up the mortality statistics, Sweden as a whole typically experiences about 200 - 300 deaths per day from all causes. If you look at the plots, you'll see that the latest daily increase was over 100 deaths in one day. So right now -- and this is clearly nowhere near peak yet -- COVID-19 is already producing a hugely significant excess mortality in Sweden.
Incidentally, Sweden does advise older citizens to stay at home and recommends that people voluntarily implement social distancing. So they are talking the sort of "common sense" measures that most laissez-fair advocates would be OK with, I think.
There have been reports in the last few days that the Swedish government may implement a lockdown soon, but it hasn't happened so far. Despite this, the recent fast rise in COVID-19-related deaths is now beginning to freak people out there (Sweden’s COVID-19 Fear Is Catching Up To The Rest Of The World , Why Sweden'''s Lax Coronavirus Approach Could Be Backfiring | Time). I would acknowledge that it's still too early to know for sure what would happen to the Swedish economy if the outbreak just continues. I actually suspect we'll never find out because the pressure on the government to impose a lockdown will be too great.
Anyway, I'd be interested to know what people on both sides of the argument make of this comparison.
That’s not my problem. If the manager of my local ShopRite handed me a mask when I walked in and asked me to wear it because he was concerned about the safety of his employees, I’d do it. Regardless of my thoughts on its efficacy, he’s a nice guy and it’s his store.
When men with guns tell me to wear something or they will fine me and arrest me, that’s a different story.
Apologies for the typo in the first bullet point -- the "I know that many people here have strong ideological objections to lockdowns." was an accidental cut and paste and was meant to be deleted...
If you follow the reasoning of Dr Wittkowski you would expect Sweden to experience a shorter but much steeper peak, while Norway will experience a much longer but less intensive peak. Total mortality (area under the curve for you calculus nerds) in Sweden should be higher but not significantly.Anyway, I'd be interested to know what people on both sides of the argument make of this comparison.
As you've said its too early to tell but even if Sweden is pressured into significant lock downs they may have held out long enough to have already built a significant herd immunity...
How have unemployment claims trended in Sweden and Norway?
No.
Hope it does not come to that.
Incidentally, the tiny town I live in has a tiny grocery store. I had not been in there in over a week. What a difference.
Worker at the door wearing a mask and trying to squirt some gel on me. I don't use hand sanitizer, it tears up my skin. (Like, looks like I have poison oak). Thought for a minute the nice lady was going to flip out when I refused it. So, my guess is it won't me long before stores won't let me in for that or the fact that I will not wear a mask. This will be an interesting period in regard to customers and customer service. I have about 2 months of meat in my freezer. My garden is not yet in, so I am (NOW) going to start hoarding can goods while they will let me in....might have to hunt some Axis deer.
Bastards.
Lazygun, do you also have a comparison of economic effects?
Because until you do, I'm not interested in anything you have to say. "Daily Counts":
COVID-19: Data - NYC Health