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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #1381
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    • starting strength seminar april 2024
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    I’ve seen a bunch of TV news reports from Australia that are ten times as critical of China as anything in the US.

  2. #1382
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    Quote Originally Posted by jfsully View Post
    Hence the "when you get sick from it." As we know, not everyone with the virus gets sick. But if you do, you would wish it was the flu instead.
    But can you avoid getting sick from it for the next 18 months (approximate time when the vaccine will be available)?

    The whole rationale behind the quarantine was to flatten the curve, in order to avoid deaths from lack of medical care due to an overwhelmed healthcare system; not avoid infection for two years (unreasonable for most people).

    From the NYC page: COVID-19: Data - NYC Health
    Till date per 1000 people overall, 5 people who are under 64 years, have been hospitalized. Some of these 5 would have not been in good health.
    And this is in New York which is a densely packed city. 5 out of 1000.

    Anyone know what the ventilator situation is? Is the US producing them now? When will the new supply be available?

  3. #1383
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    Quote Originally Posted by lazygun37 View Post
    As far as I can tell, there are fundamentally two different schools of thought represented in this thread:
    • Interventionist: that would bI know that many people here have strong ideological objections to lockdowns.e people like me, who think that that "lockdowns" that are being imposed all over the place are a necessary and reasonable response to the outbreak.
    • Laissez-Faire: that would be people like Rip and most of the people contributing, who think lockdowns result in an avoidable economic depression that is worse than the outbreak itself would be without any lockdown. (I understand that many people also have strong ideological objections to lockdowns.)

    It occurred to me that we actually have real-life examples of interventionist and laissez-faire strategies in the current outbreak. In fact, we have a pair of countries that are pretty similar in many respects, *except* in how the have reacted to the outbreak: Norway and Sweden.

    The outbreak began at pretty much the same time in both places. Their populations and population densities are within a factor of two of each other. Sweden is higher on both counts, but even its population density is about 400 times lower than that of NYC, and, in fact, lower than that of Texas, for example.

    However, whereas Norway responded to the outbreak with an almost immediate lockdown (before the first reported COVID-19-related death, in fact), Sweden has still not implemented a lockdown as of right now. So comparing Sweden and Norway should be a useful way to see the impact of the two types of strategies.

    So I took the most recent version of the JHU data sets for both countries. I decided to focus on deaths, because -- in line with their laissez-faire approach -- Sweden is massively behind in testing. Specifically, Sweden has carried out only 5400 tests per million citizens, whereas Norway has carried out 22,300 tests per million. As a result, I expect case numbers will be far less reliable and meaningful than death numbers (but I can easily produce those also).

    Here is the resulting comparison:

    Attachment 7277

    To avoid some of the confusion that's been caused by logarithmic plots, this one is simple linear counts vs time. For completeness, here is the corresponding semilog plot:

    Attachment 7278

    As an interventionist, it seems to me that this comparison is pretty stark. Neither country seems to have reached the peak of the outbreak yet, but Norway has kept the number of deaths far lower -- by a factor of 7 -- and is pretty clearly flattening the curve. It seems to be succeeding in suppressing the outbreak. By contrast, Sweden looks to be in serious trouble.

    Given all the discussions we've been having about whether an economy is sustainable in the middle of an unchecked epidemic, I also wondered about the severity of the death toll in Sweden in absolute terms. Looking up the mortality statistics, Sweden as a whole typically experiences about 200 - 300 deaths per day from all causes. If you look at the plots, you'll see that the latest daily increase was over 100 deaths in one day. So right now -- and this is clearly nowhere near peak yet -- COVID-19 is already producing a hugely significant excess mortality in Sweden.

    Incidentally, Sweden does advise older citizens to stay at home and recommends that people voluntarily implement social distancing. So they are talking the sort of "common sense" measures that most laissez-fair advocates would be OK with, I think.

    There have been reports in the last few days that the Swedish government may implement a lockdown soon, but it hasn't happened so far. Despite this, the recent fast rise in COVID-19-related deaths is now beginning to freak people out there (Sweden’s COVID-19 Fear Is Catching Up To The Rest Of The World , Why Sweden'''s Lax Coronavirus Approach Could Be Backfiring | Time). I would acknowledge that it's still too early to know for sure what would happen to the Swedish economy if the outbreak just continues. I actually suspect we'll never find out because the pressure on the government to impose a lockdown will be too great.

    Anyway, I'd be interested to know what people on both sides of the argument make of this comparison.
    You can't assume that Norway is flattening the curve and simultaneously assume that they are both at the same stage of the spread, so comparing the plots is wrong.

    This does not look like serious trouble: COVID-19

  4. #1384
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    Quote Originally Posted by jfsully View Post
    You guys are very kind and make this board fun and well worth the time spent reading. Come on up any time. We can throw tea in the harbor, commandeer Old Ironsides, and find a British dude to kick in the ass.
    I hear Anthony Joshua and Tyson Fury are available Sully if you’d like to try that.

  5. #1385
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    Quote Originally Posted by lazygun37 View Post
    Incidentally, Sweden does advise older citizens to stay at home and recommends that people voluntarily implement social distancing. So they are talking the sort of "common sense" measures that most laissez-fair advocates would be OK with, I think.

    There have been reports in the last few days that the Swedish government may implement a lockdown soon, but it hasn't happened so far. Despite this, the recent fast rise in COVID-19-related deaths is now beginning to freak people out there (Sweden’s COVID-19 Fear Is Catching Up To The Rest Of The World , Why Sweden'''s Lax Coronavirus Approach Could Be Backfiring | Time). I would acknowledge that it's still too early to know for sure what would happen to the Swedish economy if the outbreak just continues. I actually suspect we'll never find out because the pressure on the government to impose a lockdown will be too great.

    Anyway, I'd be interested to know what people on both sides of the argument make of this comparison.
    I think it's only fair to compare a country against itself i.e. the performance of it's health measures against the last 5 years.
    Lets say Sweden continues with it's current measures to tackle the virus until the end of the year. Out of curiosity, in your opinion what do you expect the total number of yearly deaths to be for 2020? Here's the last five year total number of death numbers in Sweden for you (Unfortunately I cannot locate the total number of deaths from the start of this year until today. If you can please share it with us)

    2019 - 88,766
    2018 - 92,185
    2017 - 91,972
    2916 - 90,982
    2015 - 90,907

  6. #1386
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    Given the source take this with a grain of salt: The Epoch Times and Falun Going have an axe to grind on communist china.

    YouTube

    The Epoch Times - Wikipedia

    Falun Gong - Wikipedia

  7. #1387
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    Quote Originally Posted by MitchellCole View Post
    Please explain how requiring people to wear underwear is not government overreach but requiring masks during a pandemic is so horrible?
    I’m honestly not sure how to respond to this. They are the same, and I’m not sure if you realize that or not.
    Quote Originally Posted by MitchellCole View Post
    I’d love to know your take on this statement: The Civil War was about slavery.
    That is a mostly incorrect oversimplification. My daughter learned about that too for a book report. I was actually kind of surprised they framed it as a states’ rights issue at her age and in NJ.

  8. #1388
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    Quote Originally Posted by lazygun37 View Post
    (sweden vs norway)

    Anyway, I'd be interested to know what people on both sides of the argument make of this comparison.
    First normalize for population.
    Then should look at population densities...and not for the entire country.

    Norway is only ~5 million people. Sweden is ~10M.

    Top Cities is Norway:
    1 - Oslo; 500K M people; density at 3500/sq/mi.
    2 - Berg; 200K people
    3- Trondhan 147K people

    Sweden
    1 - Stockholm 1.5M; 13,000 people /sq.mi.
    2 - Gothenberg 600K
    3 - Malmo 300K

    (New York CITY has 8.3 M ppl. on 302 sq.mi. = 27,810 density for sake of comparison)

    THEN look at age demographics.
    We know the Covid19-flu is the hardest on old people ...infections and/or deaths.
    Norway has less "old people" at 7.5% of its population being at age 75 y.o. or older than Sweden at 9.2%.
    Couple that %stat with the total population number and you get a wider margin.
    (Italy is like 11.6% / South Korea is 6.8% ...once again, for comparison)

    Normalize all that data above with your "total numbers of deaths" in the Y-axis on that Norway vs Sweden chart then get back to us.

  9. #1389
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    Quote Originally Posted by jklymus View Post

    Everyone lives on top of each other in new york, theres something like 28,000 people per square mile. Its basically a petri dish.

    On the other hand take an hour trip outside most major cities and you'll be met with vast nothingness, where people are miles from their neighbors.

    Do you think the same rules should apply equally for those 2 vastly different life styles? Do you really need to run around in a mask if there's no one around?

    Quote
    Blaine County Idaho, infection rate is 2,025 per 100,000 population (7 people per square mile)
    The Bronx, NYC, infection rate (highest of NYC boroughs) is 2,273 per 100,000 population (35,000 people per square mile)

  10. #1390
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    So, what's the reasoning for the quarantine? Why do they want to keep us inside? Are they transporting aliens? Pumping chemicals into the air? Trying to stop my linear progression?

    Yesterday they blasted all the lightning/tornado alarms in my area and cops with loudspeakers were telling everyone that they had to stay indoors for the rest of the day because there would be 45mph winds. The fastest the wind got was 15mph. Bizarre.

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