COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 153

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  1. #1521
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    • starting strength seminar december 2022
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    Quote Originally Posted by MatthewG View Post
    Just as I expected the UK Government has gone ahead with the idea...

    UK app to track coronavirus spread to be launched | Politics | The Guardian

    What are people's thoughts on this app?
    What's an 'app' ? :-)

  2. #1522
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    Quote Originally Posted by ltomo View Post
    For those wondering about the phone tracking, my brother just drove from Minnesota to Florida to visit his fiancť. He didn't get hit with any texts, but I warned him about the tracking. I'm curious to see what his return is like since he has to go through Illinois and Kentucky.

    For those who haven't yet, check out "Dumbing Us Down" and "Weapons of Mass Instruction" by John Taylor Gatto. Nick Delgadillo mentioned him on the podcast about homeschooling. They're a fascinating look into why so many people have just willingly given in to this stuff.
    Anyone know when exactly this started? I've driven from LA to Phoenix twice since both states have been on lockdown and big brother has yet to inquire about my whereabouts.

  3. #1523
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    Concerning the coronavirus, I wonder if ventilators increase mortality rates by removing the body's ability to create a stress adaptation?

  4. #1524
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    Quote Originally Posted by spacediver View Post



    We go back to "normal", and achieve rapid herd immunity. Assuming an infection CFR of 0.5 percent, this will mean about 35 million deaths worldwide, and about 1.5 million deaths in the United States.

    This would be catastrophic, to be sure, and may damage our society in ways more horrific than we can imagine.
    Why would this be catastrophic, other then in a media driven mass hysteria? From my point of view, all I see is everything about this, has been embellished and sensationalized to the point that all decisions are being made in response to the media hype and bureaucrats need to feel importation. 1.5 million is about half the yearly deaths of the US and what many are ignoring, is that many of those that will die from this, already had one foot in the grave and would be dying anyway. We will grieve the dead and move on, just like we have every other time.

  5. #1525
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    Quote Originally Posted by franklie View Post
    E those who get sick get treated with malaria medicine and antibiotics (azithrimicin) for a reduction in sick time and a chance for their own bodies to build up the antibodies and everyone goes back to work.
    If those treatments are actually effective, then yes, strategy E would be the best. What do we know so far about their ability to fight off the virus?

  6. #1526
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    For 4 times as many deaths as the flu, is this a reasonable response? Adult question, once again.
    It's not 4 times as many deaths. I thought I just explained that.

    flu doesn't infect as many people, so even if IFR were identical, less people would die from flu.

  7. #1527
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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnsonville View Post
    I am genuinely baffled at the reluctance some people have towards this treatment, and also the seemingly conflicting reports towards it. I understand the media going against it because Trump, but why isnít every doctor giving this to patients who are dying? Is there truly that much of a potential shortage and if so, why arenít they calling for companies to manufacture this instead of ventilators?
    It can be relatively dangerous because of the side effects those two medications have (link below). That's probably why some people (myself included) would be hesitant to give it a shot unless they were already knocking on death's door. I've refused that particular antibiotic multiple times because of the issues it can cause.

    Anti-COVID-19 Medications, While Possibly Life Saving, Can Have Life Threatening Complications if Used Inappropriately < Yale School of Medicine

  8. #1528
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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnsonville View Post
    I am genuinely baffled at the reluctance some people have towards this treatment, and also the seemingly conflicting reports towards it. I understand the media going against it because Trump, but why isn’t every doctor giving this to patients who are dying? Is there truly that much of a potential shortage and if so, why aren’t they calling for companies to manufacture this instead of ventilators?
    Apparently Iím as naive as a child, but maybe instead of a massive conspiracy it just doesnít work that well? Trump tweets about it and suddenly everyone on the internet is an expert about anti malaria drugs. Hey, Iíd be happy to be proven wrong.

  9. #1529
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    Quote Originally Posted by spacediver View Post
    There's a municipality in Germany where 80% of the population had an antibody test. Based on that data, which if I'm not mistaken is some of the highest quality data we have about this virus's lethality, an IFR of 0.4% was estimated.

    That's about 4 times as lethal as the flu in terms of IFR.

    But that doesn't mean 4 times as many deaths as the flu (one of the reasons for this is that herd immunity slows flu transmission down).

    SARS CoV 2 is a novel pathogen, and has a very different playing field than that of seasonal influenza.

    yeah, but that article even references the 1957-58 pandemic IFR at 0.27% ...where as the German paper sees the new CCPVirus at 0.37% IFR.

    USA had only 117K deaths back then (At a pop. of ~170M).

    It's looking like 100K-200K deaths right now from the current flu outbreak.

    Doesn't add up.

  10. #1530
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    For 4 times as many deaths as the flu, is this a reasonable response? Adult question, once again.
    This does deserve an adult discussion (which lots of people are having). But it needs to be based on the correct numbers, so just two small corrections/clarifications:
    1. The 0.1% fatality rate that keeps getting thrown around is a rough estimate of the typical CASE fatality ratio for the flu. According to the CDC, roughly 50% of people infected with flu with not display classical symptoms. Applying this to the actual CDC estimates of number of deaths and symptomatic cases over the last 7 years for which there is complete data gives a typical IFR of 0.07% And these are actually pretty HIGH numbers, because in recent years the prevalent flu strain has been H3N2. The estimated IFR for the 2009 flu pandemic -- which was H1N1 -- was far lower yet, somewhere around or below 0.01%.
    2. The number of deaths doesn't just depend on the IFR -- it obviously also depends on the number of people who get infected. The CDC data shows that, in the same 7 years as above, the estimated number of flu infections was between 19 million and 68 million people in the US. This is without any social interventions, obviously. The number isn't higher because the reproductive rate of the flu is relatively low; there are vaccines that aren't perfect, but do help (both in terms of preventing infections and reducing deaths); and people have some (partial) immunity from prior exposures to related flu strains. None of these things apply to COVID-19, so an unchecked outbreak could easily infect a large percentage of the US population. The point of herd immunity would occur around 70% of the population, or about 230 million people.

    So, let's put this together. The IFR of COVID-19 is around 5.7x that of the flu (0.4%/0.07%). To achieve herd immunity, maybe 3.8x as many people would have to be infected as in a typical flu season (230 million / 60 million). So the number of deaths expected would be around 21.7x higher (5.7x3.8). Not 4x higher.

    By the way, if you doubt my maths, this is really kind of obvious. The number of deaths from flu in those 7 years above was 37,000 and 12,000 and 43,000 and 38,000 and 51,000 and 23,000 and 38,000. You can look those up for yourself easily enough. The TOTAL number of deaths from flu over those 7 years COMBINED was 242,000.

    By contrast, for COVID-19, given an IFR of 0.4%, a herd immunity threshold of around 70%, and a US population of around 330 million, you'd expect around 920,000 US deaths. (Unsurprisingly, this is smack in the middle of typical estimates for the unchecked outbreak.) That's almost 4x more -- than 7 years worth of flu deaths COMBINED.

    Past Seasons Estimated Influenza Disease Burden | CDC
    Pinkbook | Influenza | Epidemiology of Vaccine Preventable Diseases | CDC
    PLOS Medicine: Epidemiological Characteristics of 2009 (H1N1) Pandemic Influenza Based on Paired Sera from a Longitudinal Community Cohort Study
    https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.c...879-017-2432-7
    Real-time estimation of the influenza-associated excess mortality in Hong Kong | Epidemiology & Infection | Cambridge Core

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