Originally Posted by
spacediver
This is a point that I have not seen addressed (although I may have missed it), and it's a strong one, if the premise is true.
I've seen people estimate that given what we (think) we know about the virus's transmissibilty, that the entire globe would be infected in 2 months if unchecked.
But if the virus actually has been here since, say December or even January, then why hasn't the entire US population already been infected, since it's had a huge head start before we began physically distancing?
Here are some possibilities that I can come up with:
1) It hasn't actually been here since Dec/Jan.
2) We are overestimating its transmissibility.
3) We are overestimating its IFR.