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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #1791
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    Quote Originally Posted by abduality View Post
    The Stanford study on assessing the the prevalence of COVID-19 is out: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...463v1.full.pdf

    Nice quick read, with all caveats laid-out upfront. Read yourself and see. Estimated prevalence between 2.5% to 4.2%, estimated infection fatality rate of 0.1-0.2%. Right in the ballpark of flu.

    Bruno: are we all still going to die?
    That is about the usual case fatality rate cited for flu, not infection fatality rate. Both case and infection fatality rates are higher for COVID than for typical seasonal influenza.

  2. #1792
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    Quote Originally Posted by jfsully View Post
    Both case and infection fatality rates are higher for COVID than for typical seasonal influenza.
    What are these rates?

  3. #1793
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    Quote Originally Posted by ispeters View Post
    ”Isn't life going on as usual for you?”
    If you don't see why this question would make reasonable people dismiss you, given the history of this thread, you really need to self reflect - a lot.
    I am not sure how you read that post and came away with the idea this is what I was saying. I explicitly stated that I didn’t believe “life was going on as usual”. My argument was that “social distancing” is in fact going on (leading to the decreased number of cases/mortality as predicted in earlier models). Others later posted that they were still shopping and carrying on life as usual go to cookouts, gatherings, etc. The implied argument against my previous post was that people are not socially distancing and were carrying on with their lives against the current recommendations for doing so. Therefore, social distancing would not account for the decrease in cases/mortality as predicted in the earlier models for the disease. Although I stated that this was an argument that could be made, I refuted this position based on what I have seen and experienced (I cannot account, however, for the experience of certain Texans however).
    If you want to take that quote blatantly out of the context of what I was saying and say that it is unreasonable, you would in fact be agreeing with my actual position.

    Quote Originally Posted by George Christiansen View Post
    Did your mom have any children that lived?
    Most of us don't get paid to go shopping at Lowes or Walmart.
    I personally don’t know anyone who does or would even understand how such a business model would work. I am betting that the individuals who go to such stores and buy things in these times are “mostly” practicing the guidelines, and social distancing is occurring. My argument is that social practices are changing, please see above. I left the first part of your quote in place because I am slightly amused and embarrassed from the unoriginality of your quote, stolen from a movie (full metal jacket) that was stolen from another movie (stand by me) that was used as a routine insult popular when I was 12. (I might watch too many movies)

    Quote Originally Posted by ltomo View Post
    What kind of lunacy is this? The governors of the states have made it illegal for businesses to operate.
    A better question: does social distancing do anything at all? Could it actually exacerbate the problem? Instead of allowing people to go to whatever establishment they wanted, they now can only congregate in grocery stores and big box stores. Seems pretty counter-productive to reducing human contact. It's almost like nobody actually thought through this thing and just hit the panic button.
    I think that's what bothers me the most about this while thing. The panic. I still remember going hunting and boating with my dad, and the thing he always drilled into my head is, "If something goes wrong, don't panic. Panicking only makes things worse."

    There's almost never any reason to do something without thinking about it first, and yet that is exactly what the state governors have done.
    I was going to group this in with my first reply (yes, misquoted and taken out of context, that quote statement is lunacy,) please refer to what was said above. You did at least attempt an honest question in the second half of your post. You could make an argument regarding the effectiveness of “social distancing”. I would argue that limited mass gatherings is effective at controlling an easily communicable disease. I am not sure if you want to argue against this point. (note: effectiveness of limiting the spread of covid vs. the effects on the economy is a separate yet valid argument in this context).
    Interestingly, areas in states without stay-at-home orders are now seeing spikes in covid cases.
    Heartland hotspots: A sudden rise in coronavirus cases is hitting rural states without stay-at-home orders - CNNPolitics
    I know this is CNN and “fake news”, but if Mark can post links to articles that support his claims that also post links to articles claiming “rainbow doritoes” are a gateway snack for homosexuality…..dammit, I’m posting it! (yes this happened, please see earlier posts in this thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by Rob Waskis View Post
    I get the concept - it's the application that I'm still fuzzy on. Let's use me as an example: I get CV today. Everyone who lives in my house knows it and gets tested or self isolates for a couple of weeks. That seems pretty straightforward. However, I went to the supermarket last night. Does everyone in the supermarket now have to get tested? How are they notified? Do the people they go home to also have to get tested? Does the supermarket itself close for "deep cleaning"?
    Why?
    Regarding the supermarket example, I would argue the extent of that depends on the severity of the outbreak traced back to it. If multiple people have tested positive and are traced back to that same supermarket then that may need to happen. The public should be informed that if they visited said supermarket in whatever time frame they should also probably be tested. This is virtually the same reasoning behind food recalls (I remember I recent concern regarding an e.coli infection related to romaine lettuce)

    Quote Originally Posted by Rob Waskis View Post
    So you want the government to:
    1. Take direct control of testing people
    2. Take over the supply chain for masks, gloves, and ventilators
    3. Have approval authority of any and all antibody tests sold/used
    4. Conduct all the trials for medical treatments for CV
    I am addressing this separately. The governments that do the best have one thing in common, they all did aggressive testing, so yes, there needs to be some organization at the federal level. This is a national issue that requires coordination. The federal government does not need to be in charge of developing and producing all covid antibody testing, but they should impose some standards for “validation” to ensure the test is measuring what it is supposed to. I may not have been clear in my previous post, but what happened was the validation standards were loosened and the market was flooded with shitty testing, making the problem even worse. You can’t fix a problem with shitty data.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shiva Kaul View Post
    The PPE situation isn't good, as I've remarked many times. But, it's been a month. To increase supply, governments have already taken all possible measures, from incentivizing manufacturing to commandeering private stockpiles. Any company seriously intending to make medical-grade PPE has already begun to do so. Waiting another few weeks won't significantly change rates of production. The same is true for hospital capacity.
    Even if we increased the supply, distribution still is a significant problem. Some areas have the equipment, whereas other areas do not. Coordination in paramount here. Also, testing is the much bigger concern at this point, and the US falls below most every other country on this.

    Robin UK, don’t worry, I didn’t forget about you. You are your own kind of special not worth quoting. I have in fact received several cards from my mother stating my greatness as a son over the years. I even used to get birthday cards from my great grandmother prior to her noncovid-related passing many years ago with a crisp $1 bill inside. I feel the need to state any endorsements that have received over the years as they may have tainted my world views.

  4. #1794
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    Fascinating.

  5. #1795
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Fascinating.
    Equally fascinating of a response

  6. #1796
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    To address my feeling on getting tested for this virus, I will refer back to this jewel:

    YouTube

    Never will I allow myself, nor my family to be tested for this....probably even if we have symptoms, they cannot do anything in any case. I already told my boss that if return to work is dependent on taking a test, then I will be out of work. This is a very real possibility. Especially if the Brunos of the world get their way, which it appears they will win the day.

    TX cancelled school and athletics, NCAA is talking about postponing or out right cancellation of football...I know that does not mean a lot to many of us, but it does to me. Scary part of the announcement by the UIL today was not the cancellation of this year's stuff (I thought it was a given), but this ominous tidbit, that is MEANT to be comforting, but in fact scares the absolute shit out of me:

    "Our highest priority during this challenging time is ensuring the health and safety of our students and communities and making progress in the containment of COVID-19 in Texas. We are now turning our attention to the 2020-2021 school year.”

    So, watching V for Vendetta now...feeling like Howard Beale from a totally different film.

    sb

  7. #1797
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrunoLawerence View Post
    I am not sure how you read that post and came away with the idea this is what I was saying. I explicitly stated that I didn’t believe “life was going on as usual”. My argument was that “social distancing” is in fact going on (leading to the decreased number of cases/mortality as predicted in earlier models). Others later posted that they were still shopping and carrying on life as usual go to cookouts, gatherings, etc. The implied argument against my previous post was that people are not socially distancing and were carrying on with their lives against the current recommendations for doing so. Therefore, social distancing would not account for the decrease in cases/mortality as predicted in the earlier models for the disease. Although I stated that this was an argument that could be made, I refuted this position based on what I have seen and experienced (I cannot account, however, for the experience of certain Texans however).
    If you want to take that quote blatantly out of the context of what I was saying and say that it is unreasonable, you would in fact be agreeing with my actual position.


    I personally don’t know anyone who does or would even understand how such a business model would work. I am betting that the individuals who go to such stores and buy things in these times are “mostly” practicing the guidelines, and social distancing is occurring. My argument is that social practices are changing, please see above. I left the first part of your quote in place because I am slightly amused and embarrassed from the unoriginality of your quote, stolen from a movie (full metal jacket) that was stolen from another movie (stand by me) that was used as a routine insult popular when I was 12. (I might watch too many movies)



    I was going to group this in with my first reply (yes, misquoted and taken out of context, that quote statement is lunacy,) please refer to what was said above. You did at least attempt an honest question in the second half of your post. You could make an argument regarding the effectiveness of “social distancing”. I would argue that limited mass gatherings is effective at controlling an easily communicable disease. I am not sure if you want to argue against this point. (note: effectiveness of limiting the spread of covid vs. the effects on the economy is a separate yet valid argument in this context).
    Interestingly, areas in states without stay-at-home orders are now seeing spikes in covid cases.
    Heartland hotspots: A sudden rise in coronavirus cases is hitting rural states without stay-at-home orders - CNNPolitics
    I know this is CNN and “fake news”, but if Mark can post links to articles that support his claims that also post links to articles claiming “rainbow doritoes” are a gateway snack for homosexuality…..dammit, I’m posting it! (yes this happened, please see earlier posts in this thread)


    Regarding the supermarket example, I would argue the extent of that depends on the severity of the outbreak traced back to it. If multiple people have tested positive and are traced back to that same supermarket then that may need to happen. The public should be informed that if they visited said supermarket in whatever time frame they should also probably be tested. This is virtually the same reasoning behind food recalls (I remember I recent concern regarding an e.coli infection related to romaine lettuce)



    I am addressing this separately. The governments that do the best have one thing in common, they all did aggressive testing, so yes, there needs to be some organization at the federal level. This is a national issue that requires coordination. The federal government does not need to be in charge of developing and producing all covid antibody testing, but they should impose some standards for “validation” to ensure the test is measuring what it is supposed to. I may not have been clear in my previous post, but what happened was the validation standards were loosened and the market was flooded with shitty testing, making the problem even worse. You can’t fix a problem with shitty data.


    Even if we increased the supply, distribution still is a significant problem. Some areas have the equipment, whereas other areas do not. Coordination in paramount here. Also, testing is the much bigger concern at this point, and the US falls below most every other country on this.

    Robin UK, don’t worry, I didn’t forget about you. You are your own kind of special not worth quoting. I have in fact received several cards from my mother stating my greatness as a son over the years. I even used to get birthday cards from my great grandmother prior to her noncovid-related passing many years ago with a crisp $1 bill inside. I feel the need to state any endorsements that have received over the years as they may have tainted my world views.
    Clearly Evolution was on lockdown when it attempted to pass on your great grandmother’s greatness to you.

  8. #1798
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    Interestingly, areas in states without stay-at-home orders are now seeing spikes in covid cases.
    Heartland hotspots: A sudden rise in coronavirus cases is hitting rural states without stay-at-home orders - CNNPolitics
    I know this is CNN and “fake news”, but if Mark can post links to articles that support his claims that also post links to articles claiming “rainbow doritoes” are a gateway snack for homosexuality…..dammit, I’m posting it! (yes this happened, please see earlier posts in this thread)
    The only numbers that article has in it are percentages. Do you know why? Because it makes it seem worse than it actually is. Iowa has a little over 2300 cases as of today. South Dakota has a little over 1400, yet CNN says thay cases have exploded by 205%. God help us if they explode another 200% and reach the same number as the middle-of-nowhere town I grew up in.

    Your ability to process information is not good.

  9. #1799
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    Quote Originally Posted by ltomo View Post
    The only numbers that article has in it are percentages. Do you know why? Because it makes it seem worse than it actually is. Iowa has a little over 2300 cases as of today. South Dakota has a little over 1400, yet CNN says thay cases have exploded by 205%. God help us if they explode another 200% and reach the same number as the middle-of-nowhere town I grew up in.

    Your ability to process information is not good.
    Those increases occurred in 1 week's time. It wasn't that long ago. It was < 3 months ago when the number of cases in the US was only 1.

  10. #1800
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    Quote Originally Posted by wiigelec View Post
    Do you need herd immunity to stop the spread? If so then why did the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic cease with only 25-30% infected? Why do only 20% get infected by influenza even in non-immunized populations?
    is the 25-30% figure global? I wonder what the infection rate was within communities that experienced it. That would provide more relevant figures, as the connectivity back in 1918 was not what it is today (in terms of travel between cities/countries).

    I can think of a couple reasons why seasonal influenza doesn't reach 70%. One may be because the virus doesn't thrive in warmer and more humid climates, so the transmissibility lowers to a point where the growth rate is negative. Another may be because non immunized populations may still have partial immunity due to experience with previous strains.

    But I am curious to learn about the infection rates of the spanish flu in communities that didn't practice extreme physical distancing.

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