Interesting interview with Prof. Johan Giesecke of Sweden. He discusses Sweden's thinking about the strategy of dealing with COVID19 and how it differs to a stricter lockdown imposed by the UK. Worth a watch if you've not seen it yet:
YouTube
Rip, his problem is not that he's an idiot. He's above average intelligence, and in that very specific bracket that makes his ego implacable. He has to be right. He has to know better, or his insecurities about his intelligence would niggle at him.
It's also the only reason why socialism and communism still exist, which come to think of it...
No, David, at best he's about 105 with a large dose of Dunning-Kruger. He's an LVN somewhere, who only sees one point of view, even though we have tried to get him to read some other shit.
See the cited work about performance in asymptomatic populations.
Shiva, be sure to watch this from Ioannidis: YouTube
Further inspection of the Stanford paper reveals some more major statistical flaws - see the discussions here and here.
These flaws can potentially be fixed. They need to validate the specificity of the antibody test on a much larger sample of known negatives (which should be easy to obtain en masse), and correct their computation of the final CIs.
The irony is that the justifications for the shutdowns smack in the face of all actual data we have on this virus and the opposing economic casualties.
The most basic understanding of germ theory and maybe 8th grade math skills (if you were in the slow classes) more than suffice for seeing through this BS. The entirety of the chicken little arguments rely upon the unfalsifiability of what COULD possibly maybe happen if unchecked by antisocial distancing and shudder in place orders paired with a blind eye to the negative outcomes of these policies and absolutely zero sense of proportion.
ONLY government officials and those stupid enough to trust them could possibly come to such insane overreactions to this thing. A business wouldn't last a year (it'd have to be nakrolled by insane people to make it near that) trying to run off such standards.