COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

[Soule]

The first issue is: their dataset has only 50/3300 positives. It is possible (within the 95% CI) that all of those are false positives, i.e. there is zero seroprevalence in Santa Clara. I identified the reason why zero seroprevalence escapes their reported CIs - basically, a dubious modeling assumption.

The second issue is a seeming mathematical error, which also casts doubt on their CIs.

Unlike others, I’m not out for the authors’ blood. They can fix this. But, as is, I don’t think those 50-85x conclusions are justified, and the whole thing could be a wash.

It’s also possible that 30% of the tests did not show antibodies because the test sensitivity isn’t there.

But you just keep doing you, Shiva

[Frank_B]

According to this article, Sweden seems to be plateauing despite the horrible idea that gyms are still open and someone might have gotten stronger during this. Interpret as you will.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

[RKC]

Is this a serious argument? Do you have a background in epidemiology? Maybe each of us should state his academic credentials before posting?

Let me be the first...
I ride on a very short bus, with a helmet.. trying hard to lick the windows. Basically a bubble head.

And even I can see the following:
The virus is bad, very bad. Highly infectious and will mostly likely kill loved ones who are high risk if not careful. Who may die even if careful...

This caused a “shoot first, aim second” hyperactive panic.

That panic caused a “throw the baby out with the bath water” melt down. The economic fallout from that which we may never really recover from.

Worse than that, we've given up Civil Liberties and Constitutional rights (for us in the U.S.). History shows once given up... it’s unlikely to ever get them back. Without more deaths.

Once we open back up there will be a second worse wave of all of the above... that’s when the crap will really hit the fan. More lack of trust for the media, and government. Civil Unrest, martial law, war, etc. etc.

I believe evil mean and women will continue to conspire against us. By us, I mean free people who are saddened by the loss of life, but who cling to personal freedom and responsibility. People who want to have the right to choose.

Admittedly though, I’m not one of the smart ones with neat graphs, percentages, and sources. So what do I know? Plus... I’m an optimist.

[mpalios]

Unsure if this has been posted yet...

RTL Today - Leading German virologist: “So far, no transmission of the virus in supermarkets, restaurants or hairdressers has been proved.”

[Mark Rippetoe]

Good one, Mike. An excerpt:

These research findings have already provided some indication on how the virus works, as Streeck clarified:

“There is no significant risk of catching the disease when you go shopping. Severe outbreaks of the infection were always a result of people being closer together over a longer period of time, for example the après- ski parties in Ischgl, Austria.” He could also not find any evidence of ‘living’ viruses on surfaces. “When we took samples from door handles, phones or toilets it has not been possible to cultivate the virus in the laboratory on the basis of these swabs….”

“To actually 'get' the virus it would be necessary that someone coughs into their hand, immediately touches a door knob and then straight after that another person grasps the handle and goes on to touches their face.” Streeck therefore believes that there is little chance of transmission through contact with so-called contaminated surfaces.

The fact that COVID 19 is a droplet infection and cannot be transmitted through the air had previously also been confirmed by virologist Christian Drosten of Berlin's Charité. He had pointed out in an interview that coronavirus is extremely sensitive to drying out, so the only way of contracting it is if you were to “inhale the droplets.”

However, there are different findings on how the coronavirus spreads. Experts from the US Institute of Health CDC and NIH had come to the conclusion that the virus can survive 24 hours on paper, three hours in aerosols and up to three days on plastics and stainless steel. As the Robert Koch Institute states on their website, however, scientific studies like this are realised under experimental conditions, which is why they are not very representative for the risk of transmission in daily life.

[Noah Ebner]

It's also the only reason why socialism and communism still exist, which come to think of it...

They do!? On which planet? I'm sure my comrades and I would certainly know if there were a functioning communist government left anywhere on Earth, but since we've been out of the game since 1989, it's possible you know something I don't

[Mark Rippetoe]

Venezuela, China, Hungary, North Korea, and New York get close enough, Noah.

[mpalios]

I don't have any idea if this guy right or not, or if his info is accurate or not. But it MAY BE accurate. Bottom line... More info needed.

Good one, Mike. An excerpt:

[Shiva Kaul]

It’s also possible that 30% of the tests did not show antibodies because the test sensitivity isn’t there.

But you just keep doing you, Shiva

That possibility is explicitly considered in their paper, particularly the 2nd-scenario CIs. And it only adds to uncertainty; it should not exclude zero from their final CIs.

[Shiva Kaul]

I see your point. But: Governments destroyed the economy of the world on the basis of models so shitty that they have been revised downward by orders of magnitude AFTER the damage was done. But now we have to wait for perfect analysis before we even begin the process of trying to unfuck that which they have probably already irrevocably destroyed. Does this study in Santa Clara County not even challenge the basic assumptions? Imagine my frustration.

The epidemiological models are not nearly as rigorous as this more basic kind of study. (To be fair, there was an argument for lockdowns that did not depend on those models.) Regrettably, less-verifiable claims are indeed subjected to less scrutiny.