COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

[Rob Waskis]

Don't bother engaging him. Bruno is just trolling the discussion. He's allegedly an LVN, but my suspicion is that he's a college kid whose first language isn't English.

I've kind of had a similar hunch for a while. I have never in my adult life seen someone pluralize "PPE" into "PPEs" as he repeatedly has here.

[abduality]

All-cause excess mortality does indeed seem to be higher right now:

25,000 Missing Deaths: Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Crisis - The New York Times

I see figures like the above, and then the lockdowns seem reasonable. Then I look at unemployment numbers, and can't help but wonder if the trade-off is worth it.

What's a principled way to evaluate each alternative?

[Mark Rippetoe]

Note that "New York City" is listed in the table. How about Wichita Falls? How about the rest of the country?

Here's the latest NYC data: COVID-19: Data - NYC Health

[Jeff Brophy]

This is wrong. Sweden has been implementing physical distancing measures. The difference is that they are voluntary and not as intense as most other places.

Sweden would be doing even better had they more aggressively protected vulnerable populations (e.g. nursing homes).

The difference is they chose not destroy their economy over 2,000 deaths. They have acknowledged that they need to do better with vulnerable populations but also that the severe measures that are destroying national economies, in their estimation, cannot be justified by the current position of the crises. In simple terms, a balanced perspective of needs across their populace.

[Mainstream]

Thanks for the encouraging words. I reasoned that being young and inexperienced comes with its own hassles and expenses that employers wouldn't want to deal with during these times. But perhaps you're right and young people like me will be favored more.

However, I don't want to succeed at someone else's expense. I hope older workers don't have it rough either.

So they will want their current employees back so they don't lose any time...

But it is a good point to see how this might affect our overall economy in unforeseen ways

[Fulcrum]

Note that "New York City" is listed in the table. How about Wichita Falls?

You've had two corona19 deaths Rip.

Two.

Better be careful, if you have one more death, that'll be a 50% increase in total deaths !

According to my modelling, your whole county will cease to exist by Dec. 2020.

[Noah Ebner]

How do you reckon?

The CIs are large enough that we have no fucking clue about the prevalence based on this study. The study provides hardly any useful information at all.

Technically speaking, you are correct; however, I'm being a bit generous and assuming the actual results likely fall somewhere within the median of this interval, resulting in a statistically significant (or at least not non-significant) 'increase' in prevalence. I say 'increase' in air quotes because this is the first empirical study of its kind, so we don't really know if it marks an increase because the only baseline we have to go from comes from modeling, which is the only cancer worse than vanilla statistical analysis--just ask Shiva.

Rip, Noah is not correct. I've explained why, and don't care to explain further, since a 2nd version of the paper will soon address the shortcomings.

You did no such thing. Rip asked this question 3 times and you ducked it every single time and here again you fail to cite this alleged explanation. These are what are called 'weasel words'. I change my mind; you now work for Fox News, not the NYT.

I've laid out a coherent argument for why I think prevalence is higher than previously assumed above. Until you can counter with the same, I am correct and you are not. Playground polemics are sooooo much fun...

CIs are important precisely when sample sizes are small. Maybe your papers were published with grim mathematical errors, but this one received scrutiny and is being fixed.

Important to anal pedants absolutely. (Incidentally, anal fixation is a universal prerequisite for statistics graduate programs the world over.) The rest of us, instinctively, look at a sample size of 30 and say, meh, ok, I'll take that for what its worth. Also, that tweet you linked is nothing more than typical academic mudslinging--it doesn't mention anything about any fixes or revisions.

[George Christiansen]

Sweden would be doing even better had they more aggressively protected vulnerable populations (e.g. nursing homes).

What is this claim based upon?

I am fairly certain that Prof. Johan Giesecke said that there were mandatory restrictions on nursing homes.

But the idea that fully functioning adults of an advanced age should somehow not be allowed to make their own risk evaluations is crazy.

Sweden.jpg

[Rob Waskis]

This absolutely restored my faith in humanity.

De Blasio's NY social distance snitch hotline is suspended after being bombarded with prank calls | Daily Mail Online

[sethiroth95]

This has been happening already for over a decade, but more with cheap foreign imported workers.

But now most countries have closed their borders. I don't see the U.S. opening up our national borders anytime soon which means you can't import foreign workers unless they make some sort of exception.
This is interesting to contemplate. Will we see jobs that usually go to cheap foreign workers occupied by locals? Or perhaps these positions will remain unfilled?

Don't bother engaging him. Bruno is just trolling the discussion. He's allegedly an LVN, but my suspicion is that he's a college kid whose first language isn't English.

His response to my last post directed at him will probably decide if I engage again. It's likely that I won't.
I spent far too much time finding those links and then arranging my thoughts for that post. I don't think that he'll deliver a well thought out reply.