COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 210

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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #2091
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    I'm genuinely confused -- what is this supposed to prove?

    If 13.9% of NY state residents (i.e. 2.7 million of them) have been infected, and at least 15,700 people have died from COVID-19 (this is confirmed deaths), the implied infection fatality ratio is about 0.6%. That's completely in line with expectations. Just to give one early example: the Imperial College study everybody loves to hate had adopted an IFR of 0.9% (for the UK, which has an older population than the US). They also stated that they explored IFRs between 0.25% and 1.0%. And for a back of the envelope calculation earlier in this thread I'd adopted IFR = 0.4%. Are you saying that was too low and COVID-19 is more lethal than I had assumed?

  2. #2092
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    You and Shiva will sort it out for us. The point here is that the vast, overwhelming majority of the planet's population have absolutely no risk of dying from this disease, and you are pretending that they do.

  3. #2093
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    But they don't have to load you onto train cars and take you to Virus Protection Facilities, or force you to comply, because you do that voluntarily. They control your mind. They control you through fear. They control you by convincing you that the world is a scary dangerous place, but they're here to protect you, care for you, and keep you safe, just as long as you OBEY.

    This is hysterical, truly. AM radio bloviating. It's good to criticize government action, but can we do it without all the pathos?

    The simple explanation for why people are willing to comply because they don't want to hurt their friends, family, and neighbors while the pandemic lasts. So they don't come into close contact. That's it. It's not mind control; it's an informed tradeoff.

    Now whether or not the harm is real is a whole other debate, one playing out in this very thread, but that has mostly been about interpreting the data. If instead you believe there's a conspiracy among a large group of private scientists to lie to the public in order to hoist more government control, then I'd like to see the evidence of that conspiracy.

  4. #2094
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sean Berry View Post
    Here is one example I came across:

    Dee Kenny, 64, who works security at casinos on the Strip, said that she has underlying health issues and that for her to feel safe, she would like employers to provide workers with personal protective equipment and to test all employees for the virus and its antibodies.
    ["There's no proper protocols in place anywhere," Kenny said. "I'm not going to go back until I'm not at risk."

    So, this person is never going back to work. Ever. This is from a news report about Vegas opening back up. No reason to link to it.

    I actually fear that demands like this will lead to policy being made that requires testing to go back to work, possibly routinely, and more of these silly "must wear PPE" in public dictates from local (maybe state) governments and certainly from government funded entities.

    sb



    This lady must have a a pretty sizeable rainy day fund saved up, or else she has a rich husband.

    Somebody else will need that job more than she does. I think a lot of people currently working from home or on furlough are going to be disappointed in how non-essential they really were.

    My observation has been that a person's opinion on reopening the economy is basically a function of how secure their job is (for middle-income types) and how sustainable they think the stimulus check BS is (for the low-income people).

    I see your point though. This lady represents a small minority of the country's opinions, but because her lone voice has been amplified the majority wonder, "Am I the one who's wrong?"

  5. #2095
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    Quote Originally Posted by bearalift View Post
    It's good to criticize government action, but can we do it without all the pathos?
    It's good that the government cares so much about us, but can't they do it without destroying our jobs, our businesses, and our lives? A little pathos has never been more necessary.

  6. #2096
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    Just a thought about the media:

    I work in aviation. More specifically, I fix airplanes for a living. Usually, when a plane crashes (or goes missing) the media goes absolutely nuts interviewing “aviation experts” for details on what might have gone wrong. Moreover, they usually interview pilots and never engineers or mechanics. I have no beef with pilots, but generally speaking, they have very little knowledge of the mechanics of how the thing operates. This is especially true on large airplanes. They don’t have to, for the same reason you don’t have to know how your car operates to drive it. Asking a pilot about a mechanical problem on the airplane, though, is like asking a random driver on the road, why the car crashed in the ditch had a missing wheel. Some might be able to point to telltale signs of misuse or abuse, poor mechanical operability, etc... Most wouldn’t know.

    I can say this with certainty: The amount of misinformation, incorrect or incomplete information, and downright stupid and non-relevant questions that come out of reporters’ mouths in those situations is abysmal. It’s actually somewhat of a joke in the industry as to how bad it is.

    The MH370 disappearance was probably the worst. I cannot even begin to explain in laymen’s terms how awful that coverage was. Yet, the gasping fear generated by the media coverage is, in part, what propagates the industry to be a bureaucrats wet dream and an industry’s worst nightmare.

    We are effectively doing as a country what the government did to Boeing after two crashes that, while preventable, were also heavily influenced by failures of specific airlines to adequately train their pilots. We quarantined the airplanes for upwards of a year (they still are quarantined) and keep finding petty reasons why they are unsafe. All because a few “aviation experts” made it sound like they were going to start falling from the sky.

    There were design flaws, yes. Fairly dumb ones. It was a bad situation, but didn’t warrant the outrageous actions that were taken. Just remember that when the news is interviewing a doctor, an epidemiologist, or some other “expert,” that they rarely are experts and, if aviation is a guide, you’re getting info at the first grade level - not the PhD level.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    It's good that the government cares so much about us, but can't they do it without destroying our jobs, our businesses, and our lives? A little pathos has never been more necessary.
    Of course it's understandable to be angry at the situation and a vocal citizen. I specifically think we should pour cold water on the 1984-style rhetoric from that author, which is far-fetched and under-evidenced, and not the same as arguing that the government has acted incompetently, or that some claims about the pandemic aren't backed by data.

  8. #2098
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    You and Shiva will sort it out for us. The point here is that the vast, overwhelming majority of the planet's population have absolutely no risk of dying from this disease, and you are pretending that they do.
    Could you please give a single, concrete example where I (or Shiva, or indeed anybody with an ounce of understanding) ever suggested that the majority of the planet's population was at risk of dying from COVID-19?

  9. #2099
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    I´m a Court employee in Brazil or burocrat like Rip says. My job is fine, my paycheck is really fine. I´m 35 and pretty sure I´ll be fine. Here they closed everything non "essential" by mid March. I don´t care: the same day it happenned I bought a bar and plates.

    I´m trying to get some friends be less afraid of this weird flu, but it´s tough. I wish they see that 95% of people will not be affected by the virus, but man they are really scared and that pisses me off.

    Anyway, goverment here has decided that printing money is a very good idea, and then inflation is coming soon... Hope anyone learns a lesson here, but It probably will be that the goverment and the WHO saves us from the dragon, because, after all, we won´t see any dragons in a few months..

  10. #2100
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    Quote Originally Posted by ltomo View Post
    This lady represents a small minority of the country's opinions, but because her lone voice has been amplified the majority wonder, "Am I the one who's wrong?"

    This is it right here. I just came across this one. Looked at it because my folks cancelled their 51st anniversary trip to Vegas due to this thing.



    This amplification happens and is (I am guessing)multiplied by a politician's need to do their main job: get re-elected. So, the squeaky wheels get greased and the rest of us get crushed as it turns.

    sb

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