COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 212

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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #2111
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    Meatpacking woes lead farmers to consider euthanizing hogs, holding back market-ready cattle | State & Regional | omaha.com

    Great article on ranchers starting to kill their livestock. Canít sell them and canít afford to feed them.

    Per our local butcher pork production down 30% and beef down 25%. Plenty of livestock but no one to process the animals. So meat packers arenít taking animals and farmers who canít afford to feed animals rejected by meat packers are turning to killing them.

    More benefits of the command economy?

    Time for people to put on masks if theyíre scared and let the rest of us get back to work.

  2. #2112
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    I was talking to my mom and the subject of homeschooling came up. Specifically we discussed that many parents are now effectively being forced to home-school their kids due to the schools being shutdown.
    We tossed around the idea that maybe some parents might have a positive change of perspective towards homeschooling; that they might actually decide that they are just as capable (or more capable) of teaching their own kids as the local public school is.
    A silver lining perhaps. Or maybe I'm just too optimistic in this regard.

  3. #2113
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    It's good that the government cares so much about us, but can't they do it without destroying our jobs, our businesses, and our lives? A little pathos has never been more necessary.
    At this point are we simply dealing with systemic cowardice?

    All cause mortality worldwide from everything is approximately 1% per year. Of 9 billion people this means that about 90 million people die every year. I pray every year that it does not happen or is lessened, but this is not my decision.

    For people who don't understand calculators or their sorcerous deviousness, that means that approximately 246,575 people die per day. People do not die because I wrote this. They do not die because they are terrible people. It's just a consequence or gift of this mortal coil depending on how you wish to view it.

    What terrifies me are people who's names I forgot who say things like "Now at least gyms will try to stay cleaner, or less people will be coughing in them". There is no silver lining and you are a psychotic robot person who would adopt utilizational morality (a new word the media has thrown at the cattle to placate the hours on itrackers, I mean ipads.) Push the if making people never cough again reduces one cough cold victim, the suffering of the few who cough out loud is worth that one person's life. Are you fucking kidding me. I neither cover my coughs, clean off gym equipment before I get on the machine(I follow ur faggy rules for after), or do any of that bullshit. You fucking neurotypicals are soaking up my divine genetics every second you spend breathing the same air as me so don't fucking act like me coughing is grounds for a manslaughter charge.

    And anyways, if you are an educated person, then you can easily realize with how buildings are set up with HVAC, if you spend 10 minutes in the building with someone or others, regardless of social distancing or whatever else, you are epidimologically making out with every person who has walked in that building for the last 30 or 40 minutes. This is why isolation lowers immunity and why this social distancing is bullshit. And if you're outside what the fuck man. Don't necro-fuck some guy dying on the side of the road should be enough social distancing guidance we need as adults in America.

    Why should we wear masks? Virus particles are MICROSCOPIC. What if some of these particles get lodged in the mask and now I'm breathing helpful Corona cold filtered air for my ENTIRE day? What if China spiked the masks with corona because they have America's best interest at heart? I'll roll the dice on my god-like genetics rather than your shitty non-professional engineer approved guidance showing no simple understanding of the scientific method, physics, statics, dynamics, hydraulics, pump mechanics, and basic cell biology.

    This is why Rip was so terrified at the fitness journals being published for the last 10 years. They were not following the scientific method. The scientific method is specific, requires intellectual risk, actual data, honest analysis of the results and the whole point is maybe you didn't turn out the perfect answer but proceed to work on it going for an even greater cause. When the scientific method is degraded, which it has been everywhere, then there is no longer any integrity in the data or what anyone says. Which is why now our country is kind of vapid and devoid of any substance. Substance isn't easy and normally doesn't appeal to the masses. But that does not mean it is valueless.

    The scientific method is great for the expansion of intellectual capacities, but we are going in the opposite direction. Go inside and do what CNN says. Because this number is 0.1 and this number is 5x that number, and that means, I mean it's simple really, that you should work remotely or wait for the governmnetbucks. It's safer that way. That's not the scientific method. Scientific method says I go outside and go to the store and I didn't die. Chances are I'm good to go for tomorrow as well. If it were really that bad I'd see people dying on the side of the road I'd adjust my tactics and goals effectively after that. We even have go-by countries. Sweden didn't shut down and their deaths weren't in the MILLIONS. Sure, they might have had less but I mean, good God people, it wasn't THAT bad for them. And they are a typical western nation. That is a DATA POINT that no amount of ICFRS, GFUS, reacharounds, and SI Interval deviation greek letters can negate.

    Additionally, someone pointed out in this thread that they would be worried about it if MILLIONS of people in India died. India is a second world country and they had what, thousands? Another DATA POINT. Iran sucks pretty bad and they're out there buzzing our navy cruisers with speed boats right now because they now know America is full of GIGANTIC PUSSIES EVERYWHERE. Another DATA POINT. Iran can still field speed boats.

    I'll tell another anecdote, which I think is pretty accurate and indisputable in psychology circles. A small town was going to put fluoride in the water (not saying to care one way or the other on this in this instance). Immediately, days later, people began flooding the hospitals. Ah ah ah, tricky people in the old days waited one week before putting the fluoride into the water and hadn't done that yet when people were claiming they were sick. So what happened? Well, like everything, a few things happened. First, some people are just worn down and beat up due various factors of life in the first place and are looking for a reason to be sick and may even feel they are actually sicker when terrible things start going on. Secondly, there is a group of derelicts in America that will use any excuse to get sick and take advantage of some free gives from the government for anything. While it can't be totally attributable to ONE THING, (like it must be everything or nothing or it's wrong) it causes multiple factors which influence multiple groups of people to make the same decision, I'm sick, and we go from there.

    And now the numbers just keep piling up, because by God if we all stayed 6 feet away from each other that just woulda been the key, but you didn't do good enough of a job. Chris Cuomo becomes relevant because he has a make-believe Twitter vacation while had the Corona virus.

    My problem is all this shit is just so uncompelling. Like if the libtards wanted to nuke 5 states and violently take over Texas and start a Mexican cartel of legal drug distribution and really stick it to the neocons that would get me going in the morning. That would make me excited to read the news. If The Rock raised up a gang humvee driving ancaps and began shutting down random Interstate corridors to stop the spread of corona my heart would leap for joy.

    But no, it's stay inside and become more boring than we already untolerably were before this even started. And watch Netflix. Because that's not mind control candies just telling you to drink beer, let women treat you like shit and beg to make out with them and one day, if you try real hard, uncle government will give you a good boy gold star.

    The fire rises

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    "If I don't spit these bands, alot of famines gonna hit these lands"

  4. #2114
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    Quote Originally Posted by sethiroth95 View Post
    We tossed around the idea that maybe some parents might have a positive change of perspective towards homeschooling; that they might actually decide that they are just as capable (or more capable) of teaching their own kids as the local public school is.
    A silver lining perhaps. Or maybe I'm just too optimistic in this regard.
    I have elementary school kids and so do the majority of the families in my neighborhood. This subject comes up often and without an exception no one is looking to make the switch. No one has the patience or the skill set for it. Most families want to work and make money and let the schools teach their kids. Right or wrong this is what the parents want.

  5. #2115
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    Connecticut had a may 20th reopening scheduled, but there are talks of it it going to June earliest and spanning over months. I honestly canít see how this fucking works. A friend of mine posted a petition to be able to cut hair one at a time in the salon with masks and got absolutely shit on, and guess what, they are all assholes currently allowed to work. This is going to get ugly.
    Connecticut Reopening Likely Later Than May 20; Could Be Staggered Across Months – NBC Connecticut

  6. #2116
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Brophy View Post
    The difference is they chose not destroy their economy over 2,000 deaths. They have acknowledged that they need to do better with vulnerable populations but also that the severe measures that are destroying national economies, in their estimation, cannot be justified by the current position of the crises. In simple terms, a balanced perspective of needs across their populace.
    And I agree with their assessment, and not just because of the economy. The lockdown is society destroying, and any intelligent risk analysis should incorporate this. My point with Sweden is that if we want to learn from their experience, we should strive to do even better than them.

    I think that high quality serological data is one of our most powerful information generating tools. But I also believe that we can generate valuable information by performing societal experiments with modifying restrictions on distancing. An important note here is that no matter what modifications we do, we should set in place solid guidelines and measures to protect high risk groups. These modifications are targeted, not bluntly applied.

    A very simple algorithm is to start with a ¬Ďdose¬í as close to subthreshold as possible ¬Ė say, opening up public parks and amenities (while perhaps putting measures in place to encourage appropriately sparse interactions), and wait 2 weeks. See what the resulting second wave looks like and re-calibrate from there. Maybe we find that the second wave is too great (unlikely imo), so we back off. Maybe we find that the second wave is a bare blip, so we open up nurseries, kindergarten, and day care. And so on and so forth.

    Each experimental step we take does three critical things:

    1) It revitalizes society.
    2) Herd immunity begins to develop (herd immunity is a GREAT thing).
    3) We gain information from the experiment, which informs our next decision. The resulting data also informs the rest of the planet.

    Even if 2) doesn’t apply, due to lack of exposure-induced immunity, 1) and 3) are enough for this argument to hold.

    Given what we know based on a number of different pieces of information (e.g. existing serological work, the current Swedish experience, etc.), and given what we know and can imagine about the society destroying effects of remaining in this mode, I believe a proper risk analysis would conclude that taking that first tentative step is a better move than what we are currently doing.

    We seem to have lost perspective of risk in many parts of the world. Allowing deaths to occur is something we have been doing throughout our history. Every year, hundreds of thousands perish to influenza. We could almost certainly reduce that number of deaths if we sheltered in place all flu season, and re-opened up once the transmission environment became more hostile to the virus. Right now it seems cold blooded to allow deaths, and this is because we have never paused society (and thus we have never paused the influx of deaths associated with a functioning society, such as car accidents, and the flu). Now that we have paused, we see the truth for what it is, and the decision to act is forced upon us. We are not quite as sensitive to decisions of inaction, even though they bear the same consequences . Inaction during flu season kills people, and action taken during the current pandemic (in the form of gradually re-opening society) will also kill people, yet we are not psychologically built to treat action and inaction symmetrically.

    I think our initial reaction in many places was justified. It's often better to err on the side of over-reaction in the face of the unknown - this response is built deep within our psychology, and exists for a reason. But we can't remain paralyzed by fear or panic. And right now, COVID-19, while certainly a lethal fucker, doesn't appear to warrant a huge amount of undifferentiated fear.

    Here in Ontario, 60-70 percent of the covid-related deaths are from nursing homes. One can have airtight measures in nursing homes (which would involve isolation for all staff, etc., stringent disinfectant protocols, etc.), while still allowing children to play in the park with each other.

    Quote Originally Posted by Soule View Post
    Is this math based on the assumption that for every confirmed case of the flu there is an unconfirmed, asymptotic person in the population? What happens to the IFR of covid19 when you apply that logic?
    Lazygun will have to confirm that this is how he did indeed do the math, but yes, the logic you articulated is the same that I was referring to.

    The IFR of covid-19 is probably best estimated using serological studies, where you use antibodies as a proxy to determine how many total people have already mounted an immune response. That way, you directly get at the total number of infected. From what I understand, studies so far seem to point to an IFR of ~0.5 though it varies depending on particular populations and contexts (one major factor is probably viral load - how big of a dose one was exposed to - and may explain why many healthcare workers have died from this virus).

  7. #2117
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    Quote Originally Posted by bearalift View Post
    Now whether or not the harm is real is a whole other debate, one playing out in this very thread, but that has mostly been about interpreting the data. If instead you believe there's a conspiracy among a large group of private scientists to lie to the public in order to hoist more government control, then I'd like to see the evidence of that conspiracy.
    Let me say I do wear a tin foil hat... but will admit to taking ďconspiraciesĒ to far... having said that...

    Have you watched the hot mic White House video? Iím not saying itís 100% what it appears to be, but it does raise a question or two.

    Or how about Nancy Pelosi adding gun control measures to the latest stimulus bill?

    Or people being offered rewards to turn their neighbors in?

    What about the total violation of the 1st Amendment?

    If you donít see the power grabs happening, I donít think your eyes are open.

  8. #2118
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    Quote Originally Posted by MAD9692 View Post
    I have elementary school kids and so do the majority of the families in my neighborhood. This subject comes up often and without an exception no one is looking to make the switch. No one has the patience or the skill set for it. Most families want to work and make money and let the schools teach their kids. Right or wrong this is what the parents want.
    I think it's a shame most parents think that way. But I did expect as much.

  9. #2119
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    Quote Originally Posted by sethiroth95 View Post
    I think it's a shame most parents think that way. But I did expect as much.
    "Normal" child and pet behavior in 2020 sums that up.

    Quote Originally Posted by RKC View Post
    Let me say I do wear a tin foil hat... but will admit to taking ďconspiraciesĒ to far... having said that...

    Have you watched the hot mic White House video? Iím not saying itís 100% what it appears to be, but it does raise a question or two.

    Or how about Nancy Pelosi adding gun control measures to the latest stimulus bill?

    Or people being offered rewards to turn their neighbors in?

    What about the total violation of the 1st Amendment?

    If you donít see the power grabs happening, I donít think your eyes are open.
    Laws and constitutional rights are only as strong as those defending them. The violations aren't as much of an issue as the nationwide permissiveness of them.

  10. #2120
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    Quote Originally Posted by dbm77 View Post
    You fucking neurotypicals are soaking up my divine genetics every second you spend breathing the same air as me
    If this is true, you are doing more than just coughing. Please clean up after yourself.

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