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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #2201
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dillon Spencer View Post
    Right, but as I said in my reply to Rip, that’s a much bigger burden to my family than adding a mask and gloves to the uniform a grocery store employee is already required to wear is to the employee.
    Nobody but the owner of the store has the right to place burdens on their employees. If they deem that it is a burden is worth bearing to garner your parents business then fine, but what about the people who feel less safe being served by someone in a mask and gloves., which in practice are almost certainly creating more danger than they prevent?

    The least consomme thing to society is for an individual to take responsibility for themselves.

  2. #2202
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    You're of course joking about Taco Bell, because you don't understand that just because you and I don't eat there doesn't mean it's shitty. If people ate there and died from food poisoning, that would qualify as shitty, and the market would close them.
    In the interest of the advocatus diaboli, I'll point out that the market frequently does nothing at all to restaurants that sell poisoned food. I'm not saying regulation does much more, but in a few specific (recent) instances, regulation has done much more than the market has. In the mid 90s, an e-coli outbreak at the West Coast fast food chain Jack in the Box sickened 700 people in 4 states, sending 100 of them to the hospital and killing 4. Jack in the Box was never going to self-correct because that would be an admission of liability, so had the Washington State Dept of Health not interfered, its likely many more people would have gotten ill.

    Then, of course, there's McDonald's-owned Chiptole, which has made more people sick than coronavirus over the years with everything from E. coli and salmonella to whatever the hell C. perfringens is. They even tried to cover it up on at least one occasion. It got so bad in 2018 that the CDC had to step in. Obviously the market has no corrective effect on Chipotle's chronic propensity for purveying food poisoning as their stock is right as rain; otherwise McDonalds would have dropped them from the portfolio like they've done many other chains (Boston Market, anyone?).

    The economic impact of this on either restaurant chain was nil, neither in the short nor long term, because, surprise, surprise--markets are imperfect. Again, regulation isn't perfect either, but in situations where the market is predisposed to act like a hungry tiger, I'd rather have the cage of the government around me for protection than not.

    Of course, if you want to see what a TOTALLY unregulated food supply chain looks like, you can take a look at Sinclair's The Jungle. Just make sure you don't read it while eating...

  3. #2203
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    I grew up in a cafe, George.
    And how did the Health Department contribute to the actual number of people who got sick eating there and the general practice of keeping the place clean and safe?

    I am not saying that people do not do stupid and useless things for fear of health and building inspectors, but those inspectors have contributed about the same amount to actual safety as a passerby pointing something out. In spite of the fear of fines and such, much of the time they are ignored anyway. Average people would be disgusted by a lot of kitchens and even more disgusted by the health and building codes.

    By and large, both are just agents of harassment and revenue generation.

    In the cases where there is a true concern, they punish businesses in ways that the market would have by "catching" places after the fact. The just tack on a charge on top of the loss of business that would have happened anyway.

    Except of course when

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    YouTube

    Full press conference from that CA doc....

  5. #2205
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kitsuma View Post

    Fuckery. That's the parameter some of you failed to include in your analysis. And the fuckery permeates all "science" because "scientists" are for sale.

    There is some truth to this statement. Science as an institutional practice has many shortcomings, precisely because it is comprised of humans, and fuckery permeates humanity.

    But its aspirations are noble and explicit, and it has one of the best self correcting truth seeking mechanisms we've developed as a species. Its fundamental character is philosophic, and as such, there is only so much censorship the system can tolerate.

    We should regard it as a magnificent tool, and should constantly strive to better it, by mercilessly drawing attention to its flaws.

  6. #2206
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robert Santana View Post
    Actually more than "very few" people are up in arms about this. I have multiple friends that want to move out of their states over this.
    I have noticed a larger than normal influx of out-of-state licence plates the past couple of weeks. Wasn't easy to find a Michigan plate this far west before.

    Quote Originally Posted by CFinAK View Post
    It stops when we put a stop to it Rip. ....
    Sounds like we have two options here: Either Rip runs for governor of Texas or ....

  7. #2207
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    I am not completely opposed to regulations, because they are often necessary to mitigate the consequences of stupidity. It would be better if they took into consideration the stupidity of the regulators themselves.
    And isn't maddening how predictably stupid the system is.

    Governments need to learn how to take risks, and the public needs to learn how to trust these risks.

    More fundamentally, the public should care more about how rational a government is, rather than about where they stand on a particular issue, or what "values" are held.

    If I were in the military, I would want my commanding officer's decisions to be based on the best available evidence and reasoning that our hominid brains are capable of. Why not extend this demand to our governments?

    This whole question, however, is predicated on the idea that governments should take high amounts of responsibility for the wellbeing of the public.

    I am open, in principle, to a world in which the level of education has risen to such heights that people need much less governing. But I also understand that if a government treats the public like children, then like children they will become.

  8. #2208
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnst_nhb View Post
    But its just a model. Real life offers variables that cannot be accurately modeled (for a variety of reasons.)
    I think part of this is true, especially when dealing with chaotic systems and your prediction horizons diminish rapidly.

    But I think part of it is that some of these models used point estimates since they didn't use/have enough real world data to model the underlying random variables. I say "I think", as I haven't yet read these models in detail. But Petter Attia discusses this issue here.

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    Quote Originally Posted by George Christiansen View Post
    I've worked in numerous kitchens and on hundreds of construction sites and can assure you that personal integrity and fear of lawsuits is all that have protected a single soul from harm from either industry.
    I’ll take it.

  10. #2210
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Kitsuma's link: YouTube

    Watch it.
    At about the 15:30 min mark, he compares the fatality rates between covid and the 2017-18 flu season. The denominator of the flu estimate is the number of illnesses.

    According to what I presume is the page he's reading from:

    Third, estimates of influenza-associated illness are made by multiplying the number of hospitalizations by the ratio of illnesses to hospitalizations; estimates of medical visits are made by a similar process. These multipliers are based on data from a prior season, which may not be accurate if patterns of care-seeking have changed.
    I wonder if illness here includes infections, or just symptomatic infections.

    If only symptomatic infections are included, then the comparison he's making isn't a fair one, for the reason that lazygun and dfsully have pointed out.

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