COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 222

starting strength gym
Page 222 of 2471 FirstFirst ... 1221722122202212222232242322723227221222 ... LastLast
Results 2,211 to 2,220 of 24710

Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #2211
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    North Texas
    Posts
    50,052

    Default

    • starting strength seminar december 2022
    • starting strength seminar february 2023
    • starting strength seminar april 2023
    Quote Originally Posted by lazygun37 View Post
    So -- how come this latest YouTube expert and his press-conference-happy ER doctor get an even lower IFR (I think they claim 0.03%)? As near as I can tell, their brilliant calculation involves extrapolating the fraction of tests administered that were positive to the entire population. Apparently that's a great way to estimate the total number of people who are infected. And of course it would be, if it weren't for the tiny problem that tests haven't been and aren't administered at random. They're administered to people with symptoms. Which is precisely why random antibody studies are needed to estimate the true IFR.
    Amazing. A guy who won't tell us who he is or what he does continues to shit on the credentials of ER docs "On The Front Lines" because they do not support his position. If 1 million people die from COVID_19, I owe you $10,000, you stupid fucker. A lot of money right now, since we're all broke because of morons like you. Millions of cases, very few deaths, and this is lost on you. Or you didn't actually watch the video.

    Quote Originally Posted by spacediver View Post
    If only symptomatic infections are included, then the comparison he's making isn't a fair one, for the reason that lazygun and dfsully have pointed out.
    Ask him.

  2. #2212
    Join Date
    Jul 2019
    Posts
    994

    Default

    Don't you all worry, there are powerful people and organizations that want this to continue.

    The WHO has said "There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection." This statement along with statements about the second wave in the late fall from CDC director RobRed sets the stage for prolonged or recurrent distancing measures. (and a potential mail-in-ballot election scenario, which the dems have been pushing for).

    Of course, the media has also decided to amplify, twist and exaggerate these two unusual and questionable statements for the greatest amount of dramatic effect.



    "Immunity passports" in the context of COVID-19
    Interesting that they did not support Bill Gates in this instance. I also can't think of a clear strategic interest China has in reinfection. Makes me wonder exactly what political angle the WHO is trying to play with this statement.

  3. #2213
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    RS WY
    Posts
    980

    Default

    New York State has recorded a seemingly disproportionate 1/3 of US deaths and 8% of global deaths.

    On an unrelated note what are the chances of Cuomo running against Trump instead of Biden?

    Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) = 0.5%
    Fraction of Population Ultimately Infected = Herd Immunity Threshold = 0.6

    Number of Deaths Without Effective Suppression = US Population x Fraction of Population Ultimately Infected x IFR = 1 Million
    IFR is high by a factor of 5. Infection rate is high by a factor of 2. Number of deaths without effective suppression is therefore high by a factor of 10. Your US population is also high. Try this instead:

    328M x .001 x .3 = 98,400

  4. #2214
    Join Date
    Oct 2019
    Posts
    172

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Kitsuma's link: YouTube

    Watch it.
    To my mind, that ER doctor is the true scientist of merit. Science has been taken over by vendors who want to sell products. Bill Gates appears to be one of those vendors. Beware of Globalist Gates.

  5. #2215
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Posts
    291

    Default

    So .. Everyone on planet Earth needs to be vaccinated...

    For a bug that's killed 200,000 globally..

    Makes sense

    YouTube

  6. #2216
    Join Date
    Jul 2019
    Posts
    563

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by lazygun37 View Post

    US Population = 350 million
    Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) = 0.5%
    Fraction of Population Ultimately Infected = Herd Immunity Threshold = 0.6

    Number of Deaths Without Effective Suppression = US Population x Fraction of Population Ultimately Infected x IFR = 1 Million

    Anybody who wants to argue that COVID-19 definitely can't kill hundreds of thousands of people had better state explicitly which of those numbers they think is wrong and why. And by wrong I don't mean by a factor of two (e.g. the IFR is probably uncertain at that sort of level). Any other argument is just BS.
    First off, you seem to argue from the side that by continuing lockdowns we'll just somehow magically appear on the other side of this shit show without any problems. Or, rather, that the problems we face will pale in comparison to a million lives lost. That familiar trope goes something like "Well, if we can get enough tests and then we can track people and then we can shove devices up their ass to monitor..." All of that requires a massive, coordinated governmental effort to ensure we have enough resources to do such a thing while also grossly invading the privacy of people. How's any of that working out so far? So, if it is as infectious as we are speculating, and it will kill a million people, then once we come out of lockdown in the Age of Aquarius the test and track method has to save more lives than those lost by the collateral damage of the shutdown.

    The IFR is truly unknown, but I've heard 0.5%-ish thrown around quite a bit. Let's take that and run with it for a second and let's grant that 1 million people die from it. For the sake of argument, let's go with it:

    If 4% of the currently jobless people turn to drugs/alcohol right now, then that's a million people about to undergo a very slow unwinding of their lives. Already in America, during the "GOOD" times, we had about 14% or so of the population struggling with addiction. So, I think it's reasonable in allowing ourselves that at least a million people (4% of those now jobless) will resort to drugs/alcohol because of the shutdown. That's just the jobless. Not people who handle stress poorly, take a pay cut they can't afford, etc...

    Of those people currently out of work, how many will commit suicide separately from their addictions? In other words, they don't get addicted to anything, but put a gun to their head because they've lost everything? Did they have kids and what does that do to those kids? And, of those who have turned to addiction, how many ultimately die from overdoses, suicides, or accidents (such as drunk driving) as a result?

    Of those out of work, how many will lose their health insurance and not be able to afford to get diagnosed with otherwise preventable conditions such as skin cancer, colorectal polyps that become cancer, etc...?

    How many people right now, working or not, have skipped appointments for skin checkups, colonoscopies, etc because they're "non-essential?" Of those, how many missed diagnoses will there be?

    Then there is the population of people who can't get elective surgeries that are still very critical. My grandmother, at 87, was two days away from having four stents put in when they deemed it "elective" and shut her down until further notice because she wasn't having symptoms. This, despite two blockages at 95% and a few others at 85%. She's 87. She doesn't have long anyway, but do we code her as "COVID-19" or "COVID-PANIC" when she dies from her heart ailment? There are numerous stories of people not getting kidney transplants and other "elective" operations because of COVID-19. Each situation is unique, but it must be factored in.

    How many old people WITHOUT COVID-19 will just die because, well, they're stuck in the fucking prison cell that is their nursing home? My grandfather is 93 and hasn't seen family in months now. He has no one to talk to. There are no cases in his nursing home, but he's basically locked in his room and has to ask for permission to walk down the hallway. How many of these people fucking die in PRISON?

    I'm sure there are many other situations, corner cases, and unthought of spots where this shutdown will prove harmful, but those are simple, back-of-the-napkin scenarios that we know WILL happen because of the shutdown.

    As the number of jobless continues to go up, and the lockdowns persist, all of the above numbers will continue to rise. All it takes is 4% of JUST those currently filing for unemployment to have their lives irreparably damaged before this stops making numerical sense. We're facing a much larger problem when this virus business is over, and it's going to come in the form of alcoholism, drug addiction, suicides, depression, and mental illness. Where are the fucking epidemiologists at when it comes to accounting for that massive swath of bodies?

    You know why none of the above matters to the public or those wanting a shutdown? Because it's slower than COVID-19. The speed and rapidity of (a million?) relatively quick deaths is scarier than the slow trail of destruction that this shutdown will cause. People are far more scared of a tornado than they are of a flood, but flooding kills far more people each year. COVID-19 is a tornado. The shutdown is a Noahic Flood. You just can't point to busy emergency rooms on the five o'clock news when people are jumping off buildings. Out of sight, out of mind.

    Finally, I'm going to touch on a subject that most might find callous, but fuck it...

    The overwhelming majority of people dying from this are dying with roughly 3 comorbidities. Those comorbidites don't often come about because a person has been eating properly and training their entire life. I have yet to see the widow of a 40 year old male say, "I don't get it. Yesterday he was squatting 405 for 5 sets of 5 and today he's gone because of COVID-19!" No. You have to read the entire story when a young individual dies. It says, often at the very last sentence of the article, "He recovered from a rare form of leukemia two years ago," or some other shit like that. It sucks. It's sad. It was a raw deal. However, it is NOT the norm.

    On the other hand, you have individuals who have clearly said "Fuck it, I quit!" when it comes to their health and that's expressed by the fact that they have THREE COMORBIDITIES. I understand that age, genetics, and societal factors help these things along, but we all act shocked when a nation full of very unfit and unhealthy people starts dying from a disease that seems to love to target the unfit and unhealthy.

  7. #2217
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    Murphysboro, IL
    Posts
    30,968

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Yngvi View Post
    Makes me wonder exactly what political angle the WHO is trying to play with this statement.
    WHO is after the same thing the dems are. Prolong the fear factor, compel the resort to mail in ballots, cheat like the entire nation is Crook County, IL with vote fraud, and elect that serial groper and tourette's poster boy Joe Bidet.

  8. #2218
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Posts
    95

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by wiigelec View Post
    IFR is high by a factor of 5. Infection rate is high by a factor of 2. Number of deaths without effective suppression is therefore high by a factor of 10. Your US population is also high. Try this instead:

    328M x .001 x .3 = 98,400
    Where are your IFR and max infection rate coming from?

  9. #2219
    Join Date
    Sep 2019
    Posts
    725

    Default

    A good article by Peter Attia here. It's a week old, so I *think* some of the tests he says to do have been done, but not sure...

    COVID-19: What’s wrong with the models? - Peter Attia

  10. #2220
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Posts
    95

    Default

    starting strength coach development program
    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Amazing. A guy who won't tell us who he is or what he does continues to shit on the credentials of ER docs "On The Front Lines" because they do not support his position. If 1 million people die from COVID_19, I owe you $10,000, you stupid fucker. A lot of money right now, since we're all broke because of morons like you.
    This, of course, is just more vitriolic BS. And, as usual, you're not even attempting to defend your original claim with anything resembling a rational thought.

    To be clear: I'm grateful to any ER doc on the front lines, regardless of whether they support my position. Including the guy I was talking about. But his press conference wasn't about emergency medicine, it was about epidemiology. Does he have any credentials for that? I would think in the ER he only sees the symptomatic cases, not the millions upon millions of asymptomatic ones he's basing his "calculation" on.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Millions of cases, very few deaths, and this is lost on you.
    First, what's "very few" in your book? With an IFR of 0.5%, 1 million cases = 5000 deaths. Does that qualify?

    Second, at the moment, with all these restrictions in place, the number of deaths in the US is 54,000. Where do you think this number might end up, both with and without any restrictions?

    Third, could you please state specifically what you think the IFR and herd immunity thresholds are? And where you get your preferred numbers from?

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •