COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 225

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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #2241
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    • starting strength seminar december 2022
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    how exactly does this support your argument?
    Slow down there Mr. Fauci were just focusing on the infection incidence rate for starters well get to the IFR in a bit...

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...010v1.full.pdf

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Every single time you post, without exception, you demonstrate conclusively that you neither know about nor care what the rest of society is dealing with as a result of your "knowing quite a bit about stats." You may even be that great fool Anthony Fauci. You and he and your media are directly responsible for this economic bloodbath, the extent of which you will never grasp. At this point it doesn't matter if 1 million die, or 5 million, because the survivors will have nothing left. And they may justly demand a reckoning.
    Yes, I'm Anthony Fauci. I'm a 79 year old epidemiologist who is in the middle of trying to manage a pandemic (not necessarily all that successfully). So, quite obviously, I'm spending my non-existent free time on a strength training forum.

    And yes, that was my version of trying to address the social and economic argument. Specifically that was me trying to have a conversation about how you can realistically get to the point where the economy can actually recover. I naively thought that was what all of us -- including you -- would like to happen.

    Quote Originally Posted by wiigelec View Post
    Slow down there Mr. Fauci we’re just focusing on the infection incidence rate for starters we’ll get to the IFR in a bit...
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...010v1.full.pdf
    Ahh, got it -- so we take only the numbers we like from each paper we cite. (BTW regarding that last paper: I can't really reproduce what they did, because they give no details, but about the 1918 epidemic they use as a model, they say this: "if we assumed an infection-fatality rate 2%, then the infection attack rate in the first 11 months had a median 0.2". So it sure sounds like you really can't pick and choose from those numbers.)

    About this new paper (which is also not peer reviewed can you point me to the actual number you want me to look at? You do realize that this is about *secondary* attack rates, right?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sean Berry View Post
    The X-axis is time.
    The total number of humans infected was never the point. It was to avoid "crashing" the over-burdened health care system. Pretty clear that the hospitals are not being flooded by sick folks, and the piles of bodies are not piling up in the makeshift morgues, much less in the streets. Hopefully, the planned-demic is over.
    Actually, both things are the point. I agree that very early on, there was this idea that the main thing we had to do was "flatten the curve", while keeping the total area under it (the number of infections) constant. But I don't think any government is actually still pursuing that -- "mitigation" -- as the only or even main goal. The Imperial College study was influential in this, because it suggested that, even successful mitigation was likely to lead to very large number of fatalities. This led to a shift in thinking towards "suppression", i.e. the attempt to actually *curtail* the outbreak, i.e. not just flatten the curve, but also reduce its area.

    Assuming that China and Singapore, for example, don't suffer huge second waves in the near future (which is to be seen), this does seem to be possible, at least in some cases.

    Rip - I think we’ve both had about as much of each other as we can stand. I’m also really becoming depressed by seeing what this thread has turned into.

    That said, I know myself well enough to realize that it’s far too easy for me to get drawn in again. There will always be the next time somebody tortures data, statistics and/or math until they confess whatever opinion the poster had anyway.

    But this is a waste of my time and also of yours. So please feel free to delete my account permanently.

    For the record, I meant the complementary things I said about the positive influence Starting Strength has had on my life. But at this point I really don’t want to have any association with the brand anymore, not even an anonymous one.

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    Quote Originally Posted by lazygun37 View Post
    I hope we can agree that a highly infectious disease can be transmitted pretty effectively even if the fraction of idiots is pretty small. Moreover, I would expect the free market to respond precisely once the numbers are obvious -- which is way too late for outbreaks that initially grow exponentially. So in the free-market scenario you envision, how do you prevent the initial explosive growth and how do you stop a small fraction of idiots from making life miserable for everybody else for far longer than necessary?
    Its simple, you issue mass warnings to the VULNERABLE population and you do NOT start conducting experiments based on incomplete observational data from an unreliable source that you have no way of verifying. Furthermore, you do NOT defer to government employees that have a decades long track record of making significantly false predictions.

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    Quote Originally Posted by lazygun37 View Post
    But this is a waste of my time and also of yours. So please feel free to delete my account permanently.
    We do not delete accounts. So you're stuck having said all this stupid bullshit for as long as there are electrons.

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    A room full of women with acrylics is no joke

    Gotta send SWAT

    Texas cops use undercover sting operation to arrest women offering salon services at their homes

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    Quote Originally Posted by Robert Santana View Post
    Its simple, you issue mass warnings to the VULNERABLE population and you do NOT start conducting experiments based on incomplete observational data from an unreliable source that you have no way of verifying. Furthermore, you do NOT defer to government employees that have a decades long track record of making significantly false predictions.
    The better safe than sorry apologists ask the question of what else could have been done?, a lot. As if that very question is a got-ya.

    Your answer is perfect and obvious.

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    When you post new links like this, try to give us an idea about what we're looking for.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    We do not delete accounts. So you're stuck having said all this stupid bullshit for as long as there are electrons.
    Heh. Can't crass your stupidity any more.

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    starting strength coach development program
    My apologies. All the provided links are in the context of providing data demonstrating a 30% infection rate vs a 60% infection rate...

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