COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 294

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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #2931
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Le Comte View Post
    The problem isn't in the stats. I'm going to be far more generous than a lot of people here and just assume the politicians are asking the wrong question (rather than actively pursuing a power grab). Here is how it happens:
    1. Lots of news that coronavirus is bad.
    2. Lots of news about what everyone else is doing to stop it.
    3. Lots of statistics and science that is not well understood.
    4. Well meaning politician asks health advisor "how do I minimise deaths from coronavirus"
    5. Health advisor is excited that they are the major advisor on this, and in their enthusiasm takes question literally and advises extreme measures.
    (optional step) economic advisor says "but the jobs", health advisor says "this is about lives"
    6. Politician acts on health advisor recommendation (taking advice is safe)
    7. Unintended consequences ensue.
    This! A million times over. The health advisor has a job: minimize infections and deaths from contagious diseases. I get it. You ask them the best way to do it, and they’ll tell you. That’s their job.

    The problem with experts in anything is that they are rarely capable of analyzing other fields with the same rigor. So, when the health advisor has the platform to a very multi-dimensional problem, all other arguments come behind it because it’s not the most optimal solution to the expert’s problem.

    To be fair, it is the responsibility of the head of the governing bodies to hear and weigh arguments from all sides and base decisions on that.

  2. #2932
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shiva Kaul View Post
    All-cause mortality data is simple enough to be reported directly, without a pointless regression for estimating baseline deaths.
    Yes, and they appear to have that figure. I think the article was attempting to get the “delta” all-cause mortality this year, relative to previous years, as a rough barometer of the pandemic.

  3. #2933
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark E. Hurling View Post
    Here in Illinois, those unintended consequences are being dismissed as unimportant. Thus, IMO, the recipients of your generosity do not merit it. Which is on them, not you.
    Yes. The generous is bit is that I'm saying they could just be stupid, rather than evil.

  4. #2934
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    Folks, If you haven't been following Elon Musk's battle with local officials where Tesla's California plant is located, it's worth a google. He tweeted this today:

    "Tesla is restarting production today against Alameda County rules. I will be on the line with everyone else. If anyone is arrested, I ask that it only be me."

    True Hero. IMO. As soon as I can afford it, I'm buying the wife a Tesla.

  5. #2935
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    And the Twitter comments are interesting. They think he's putting profits before people or some such 9-year-old bullshit. Hollis agrees, I'm sure.

  6. #2936
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    Quote Originally Posted by DanaWhicker View Post
    Folks, If you haven't been following Elon Musk's battle with local officials where Tesla's California plant is located, it's worth a google. He tweeted this today:

    "Tesla is restarting production today against Alameda County rules. I will be on the line with everyone else. If anyone is arrested, I ask that it only be me."

    True Hero. IMO. As soon as I can afford it, I'm buying the wife a Tesla.
    Also sounds like he’s moving Tesla HQ to Tejas.

  7. #2937
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hollis View Post
    I already gave the Most Pathetic superlative to the guy who is going to close up shop, take what savings he has, and move out of his home state, leaving behind his friends, family, and a business because he didn't want to put a sticker in his window.

    Previously it went to the guy whose freedom was violated by the minimum wage worker that wouldn't hold his receipt for him at Costco.
    Building permits: OK
    Health permits: OK
    COVID certs (or somthing): ?

    You don’t see scope creep here?

    Like the tollway, “only for a time . . .”

  8. #2938
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    Quote Originally Posted by VNV View Post
    Yes, and they appear to have that figure. I think the article was attempting to get the “delta” all-cause mortality this year, relative to previous years, as a rough barometer of the pandemic.
    Yes, but I don’t see the actual data for the previous years.

    The bigger issue: this report yields the news headline “NYC UNDERCOUNTED”.

  9. #2939
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    Quote Originally Posted by VNV View Post
    Building permits: OK
    Health permits: OK
    COVID certs (or somthing): ?

    You don’t see scope creep here?

    Like the tollway, “only for a time . . .”
    Of course he doesn't, he isn't subject to such things. If they come knocking on his door demanding it, he'll be the first to scream injustice through a loudspeaker.

  10. #2940
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shiva Kaul View Post
    Yes, but I don’t see the actual data for the previous years.

    The bigger issue: this report yields the news headline “NYC UNDERCOUNTED”.
    Totally.

    Original report shouldn’t have been stingy with the plots. Show the raw data first. Simple overplots, then “normalized”. Bush-league mistake.

    And of course the bastard media is to blame. Really.

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