Originally Posted by
Frank_B
I think I may have submitted this in triplicate as the site seems to be locking up when I hit submit. If so, please delete the other two copies and my apologies.
I don't view a disease with a survival rate of 98% in those KNOWN to be infected by it as particularly deadly. It's probably closer to a 99.5% survival rate for all of those who contract it, and for those below the age of 65, it's remarkably higher. In the 85+ group, I do think the mortality rate is significantly higher (maybe 5-6%?). As a whole, this higher age bracket has a particularly high skew in the perceived overall mortality rate. So, rest assured, there's about a 99% chance you giving the virus to someone won't kill them.
There is either not enough evidence and/or conflicting evidence as to how contagious it is. The CDC announced yesterday that contaminated surfaces are poor transmitters of the disease, while maintaining their stance that social distancing is the most effective method of prevention. So, before it was "failure to wipe even a single square inch of a communal surface down could result in the deaths of hundreds," to "Meh... Not that big of a deal." It seems like everyone has become a statistician suddenly and virtually every measurement of antibodies, total infections, etc... is highly contested by one amateur or professional group or another. In my opinion, the jury is out, but I lean towards it being more infectious in confined spaces like an elevator, subway car, or nightclub and probably far less infectious or not at all infectious in a park, at a squat rack, or even in a big shopping center like Costco. All the same, if I'm capable of making that judgment, then so too should the rest of the public. I like to have the option to avoid such places if so desired and not be told when I am allowed to go to such places. It's a very subtle but important difference.
Speaking of infection rates, Sweden claims 7% of their population has antibodies and they never shut down. This seems contrary to the pro lockdown plea that doing nothing will cause an instantaneous wildfire of COVID-19. Total deaths so far: 3871. That puts the total death rate to a more likely 0.5% among all those who contract it. As of early May, the average age of death was 82. That's consistent with a 99.5% survival rate discussed earlier, and for those without the comorbidity of being old, once again, it's virtually 100% survivable.
As far as wearing a mask, it's situational. If I need something from a business and they require me to wear a mask, I will comply. If I'm out walking my dogs? Hell no. If I'm at a business that doesn't mandate it? No. If I'm checking the mail? No. If I'm fixing a leaky faucet for 98 year old Mrs. Smith down the street, then I would probably be courteous enough to ask her because she's old and maybe she forgot to ask me.
There's one other thing I think you NYC folks forget about... You've been playing good dog all this time, by locking up in your $10k/month 1 bedroom studio apartments and "flattening the curve." When you finally come crawling out, the free folk are coming for a visit. We like Broadway, pizza and baseball games. Most of us have been ignoring shit for at least a month now, and we're itching for a vacation in NYC. At some point, you all will have to deal with this head on in one way or another.