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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #3341
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    • starting strength seminar april 2024
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    New data from CDC on current best estimate of coronavirus mortality.

    0.4% overall case-fatality rate for symptomatic individuals (and death is heavily skewed towards the 65 and older crowd). However, only about 35% of the people are symptomatic.

  2. #3342
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    Here's something really beautiful happening on a beach in the Netherlands

    YouTube

  4. #3344
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    Quote Originally Posted by abduality View Post
    New data from CDC on current best estimate of coronavirus mortality.

    0.4% overall case-fatality rate for symptomatic individuals (and death is heavily skewed towards the 65 and older crowd). However, only about 35% of the people are symptomatic.
    I'm having trouble finding these stats in this document.

    And of all the good information posted today, this is very important. It would be too much to ask for the politicians to actually read it. There Is No Evidence Lockdowns Saved Lives. It Is Indisputable They Caused Great Harm – William M. Briggs

  5. #3345
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    I'm having trouble finding these stats in this document.
    Look at Table 1 Scenario 5, representing CDC's best estimate for a variety of disease parameters (R0, CFR, hospitalization rate, etc).

    Symptomatic Case Fatality Ratio, stratified by age in years (Scenario 5): 0.004 ==> 0.4%
    Percent of infections that are asymptomatic: 35%

  6. #3346
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    This is interesting:

    Infectiousness of asymptomatic individuals relative to symptomatic individuals = 100%
    What exactly is meant by this, because it's unclear.

  7. #3347
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frank_B View Post
    I think I may have submitted this in triplicate as the site seems to be locking up when I hit submit. If so, please delete the other two copies and my apologies.



    I don't view a disease with a survival rate of 98% in those KNOWN to be infected by it as particularly deadly. It's probably closer to a 99.5% survival rate for all of those who contract it, and for those below the age of 65, it's remarkably higher. In the 85+ group, I do think the mortality rate is significantly higher (maybe 5-6%?). As a whole, this higher age bracket has a particularly high skew in the perceived overall mortality rate. So, rest assured, there's about a 99% chance you giving the virus to someone won't kill them.

    There is either not enough evidence and/or conflicting evidence as to how contagious it is. The CDC announced yesterday that contaminated surfaces are poor transmitters of the disease, while maintaining their stance that social distancing is the most effective method of prevention. So, before it was "failure to wipe even a single square inch of a communal surface down could result in the deaths of hundreds," to "Meh... Not that big of a deal." It seems like everyone has become a statistician suddenly and virtually every measurement of antibodies, total infections, etc... is highly contested by one amateur or professional group or another. In my opinion, the jury is out, but I lean towards it being more infectious in confined spaces like an elevator, subway car, or nightclub and probably far less infectious or not at all infectious in a park, at a squat rack, or even in a big shopping center like Costco. All the same, if I'm capable of making that judgment, then so too should the rest of the public. I like to have the option to avoid such places if so desired and not be told when I am allowed to go to such places. It's a very subtle but important difference.

    Speaking of infection rates, Sweden claims 7% of their population has antibodies and they never shut down. This seems contrary to the pro lockdown plea that doing nothing will cause an instantaneous wildfire of COVID-19. Total deaths so far: 3871. That puts the total death rate to a more likely 0.5% among all those who contract it. As of early May, the average age of death was 82. That's consistent with a 99.5% survival rate discussed earlier, and for those without the comorbidity of being old, once again, it's virtually 100% survivable.

    As far as wearing a mask, it's situational. If I need something from a business and they require me to wear a mask, I will comply. If I'm out walking my dogs? Hell no. If I'm at a business that doesn't mandate it? No. If I'm checking the mail? No. If I'm fixing a leaky faucet for 98 year old Mrs. Smith down the street, then I would probably be courteous enough to ask her because she's old and maybe she forgot to ask me.

    There's one other thing I think you NYC folks forget about... You've been playing good dog all this time, by locking up in your $10k/month 1 bedroom studio apartments and "flattening the curve." When you finally come crawling out, the free folk are coming for a visit. We like Broadway, pizza and baseball games. Most of us have been ignoring shit for at least a month now, and we're itching for a vacation in NYC. At some point, you all will have to deal with this head on in one way or another.
    good comments. Broadway and Baseball pretty damn expensive.....Pizza, on the other hand. even shitty ny pizza is alright.

    Quote Originally Posted by Alexander Dargatz View Post
    I'm sorry that you caught the virus, but then, it doesn't seem to have incapacitated you to the point that you stay at home or in a hospital to avoid infecting others. So maybe the virus is not that lethal. Anyway, keeping yourself away from others as long as you're sick will be more helpful in not killing them than wearing a mask while you go outside.
    oh...i was using "me" as a metaphor. While I do think i may have caught it, i just meant for people "in general."

  8. #3348
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    Quote Originally Posted by abduality View Post
    New data from CDC on current best estimate of coronavirus mortality.

    0.4% overall case-fatality rate for symptomatic individuals (and death is heavily skewed towards the 65 and older crowd). However, only about 35% of the people are symptomatic.
    That estimate is 10 times lower than the crude ratio of deaths to cases, as reported here. How was it calculated?

    (Reminder: do not blindly accept statistics, even when they support your position.)

  9. #3349
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    Quote Originally Posted by darrowdisciple View Post
    I just disagree with you about the efficacy of masks and the deadliness of the virus. And I think a lot of the people in government have real, genuine concerns, like I do. Many, thought obviously not all are actually trying to figure out how to save people. But yes...there ARE plenty of shitsacks in government...
    Darrow, you just unintentionally listed one of the basic disagreed-upon tenets of our whole debate. You just wrote that you believe that most of our leaders ("people in government") "have real concerns [about doing what's in the American people's interests]."

    You probably assume that this benevolence in government leaders is something everyone else thinks it's true, and proceed to build your argument from there. But many don't, and each side is building its arguments upon THEIR understanding of what is "true," and so of course it's like we're talking to the wall rather than building better understanding of each other's positions!

    I only have one question, I suppose. I presume you're over thirty and have already begin paying taxes and have voted in about a half-dozen various elections, so.... How did you manage to come to the conclusion that [most of the] people in government have our best interests in mind, especially Americans' best interests?
    Because without a decent answer to THAT question, you and your fellow travellers (we'll call y'all Benevolent Government Believers) are the ones living in more of a fantasy land ("unSCIENTIFIC") than the libertarians and traditionalists.

    And in case the Believers think it's a stretch for us to consider their views on government's role in our lives unpatriotic, remember the Tenth Amendment. Our founders themselves were healthily distrustful of government! And if anybody doesn't like our founders'definition of the role of government in our lives, for goodness's sage, don't change the great thing we have going on here!! There are plenty of countries out there with governing systems more in line with your preferences.

  10. #3350
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    starting strength coach development program
    Quote Originally Posted by ltomo View Post
    Writing like this is not helping your case. This is 9th grade work at best.

    I mean that as an insult, but I'm also kind of trying to help, in the hope that if you start writing better maybe your thinking will improve as well. I'm certainly no Hemmingway, but a large part of my job is writing so I do know at least a little about how to put thought into print.

    Paragraphs, proper sentence structure, understanding different types of clauses and conjunctions; these things and more will all help you process the world around you more accurately.

    Dr. Peterson wrote a really good guide for writing that I think every single high school student ought to be forced to read (at gun point)

    Essay_Writing_Guide.docx
    Thank you for this, I could use it too.

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