COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

[abduality]

(... even when they support your position.)

What's my position?

[MiddleMike]

For your consideration:

There Is No Evidence Lockdowns Saved Lives. It Is Indisputable They Caused Great Harm – William M. Briggs

Interesting that we have a statistician presenting global numbers which solidly indicate lockdowns had minimal effect and then you have Columbia University running a "study" that indicates at least 36,000 lives could have been saved by earlier lockdowns in the US.

Lockdown Delays Cost at Least 36,000 Lives, Data Show - The New York Times


If I recall correctly, Columbia also ran one of the early models indicating millions would perish as a result of this virus. Hopefully their lockdown model has had time to stabilize as it might need some new data based on Mr. Briggs findings....

[Frank_B]

That estimate is 10 times lower than the crude ratio of deaths to cases, as reported here. How was it calculated?

(Reminder: do not blindly accept statistics, even when they support your position.)

Many pages back I described the problem with experts, Shiva. They’re great for getting men on the moon and coming up with things like vaccines. They particularly suck at “troubleshooting” though. Ask an engineer to troubleshoot your car’s low air pressure light and he’ll design a car that simulates all possible scenarios for a low tire light.

Ask a statistician to take a simple cross section of the population and you’ll have 900 pages of graphs and formulas.

Sometimes, the numbers aren’t as complicated as some want to make them.

[jfsully]

The federal government controlled the borders. The matter was -- and rightly so -- left up to the states, counties, and localities, and the federal government should do absolutely nothing else except get out of our way. The federal government fucked up when it deferred to Fauci, Birx, and the health/science bureaucrats with regard to policy suggestions. These people are clearly incompetent, and the only way even you would disagree with this obvious fact is because you just don't know anything about what has happened. The real fools here are state/county/local governments who deferred to Fauci et al when there was no reason to do so, and who have failed to correct their obvious mistakes since then. Every possible thing that could have been done wrong was done wrong. They should stop doing and let us deal with this the way contagious diseases have always been dealt with.

I think you're letting the Feds off the hook a little too easily here. I know your preference is that the Federal Government do as little as possible, in general, but as currently manifest, the Federal Goverment has significant resources and could have been much more helpful with this. Saying from the beginning: some of you states will be badly hit, others will not. If you're likely to get hit (major metro area, densely populated) here's what you do. If you're less likely, here's what you do to have surveillance in the event this thing spreads in unpredicted ways. Using intelligence resources to sort the propaganda from the data coming from China and European countries who felt this first. Using the national stockpile and the purchasing power of the US Govt to secure and shepherd PPE so that the places that need it have it (and not send some to China). Getting the testing rolled out early and widely so hotspots knew what they were dealing with. Getting CDC to gather best practices to rapidly share results and coordinate treatment trials. Most of this has been worked out at this point, but I think it's been in spite of, not because of, the Federal govt.

There are a ton of ways the Feds could have done this better. I feel naive even pointing that out, because what did we expect? I like Fauci more than you do, but his recs should not have been followed blindly and universally. If he knows anything, it is how to manage an infectious disease epidemic, not how to protect or save an economy. Trump should have had other people working on that from day 1, and always challenging the decrees from Fauci et al. One problem with Trump is that he can't bear to get out of the way when he should. He also seems unable to collect a group of people to rapidly handle a complex situation and keep him out of the details.

Governors and local boards of health followed Fauci's and CDC's recs primarily because either A) they are dems and liked following the "science people" so they could feel superior to Trump, or 2) They are repubs and he was "Trump's guy" on the case.

The other main problem was the 24-hour news cycle and social media, both of which are probably insoluble blights at this point.

As you have said already, Rip, argument about the facts of the virus itself is pretty much moot at this point. We seem to be on the downslope of the epidemic and have moved into the blame and recrimination phase of the process.

I hope that, instead of yelling about liberty and masks to the poor shopkeepers trying to survive, people take their frustration to the polls, turn off their TV and internet (except for the SS sites and forums of course), and try to help their neighbors back onto their feet.

[Mark Rippetoe]

One of the best posts yet, Sully. Thanks for this.

And here's an important development in Ohio: Judge Positively Scorches Ohio Health Director for 'Criminalizing' Gyms—and It's Glorious

[mpalios]

I have a question about the virus, and it is something I just don't quite understand.

It is my opinion that this virus ran through Tampa in December/January. Anecdotes only of asses having A LOT of kids out, adults sick, etc.

How is it possible that Tampa got this thing, but NYC didn't? How did NYC have so many more deaths vs a place like Tampa? (I am assuming death rates are not equal in the 2 areas)

Is it just that people are packed like sardines in NYC?

Is it possible that a virus didn't get exposed to one of the world's most traveled and visited cities, but it did run through little Ole Tampa?

[Mark Rippetoe]

There is evidence that the virus was here in late October, posted earlier in the thread. Recent antibody testing has shown fairly high rates of seropositive people in NYC. But you said "How is it possible that Tampa got this thing, but NYC didn't? How did NYC have so many more deaths vs a place like Tampa?" Can you clarify the question?

[mpalios]

Shitty question phrasing......

How did this thing seemingly kill so many people in NYC all of a sudden, but NOT kill so many people earlier? And related...how did it kill so many in NYC, and - comparitively speaking - kill nearly no one in Tampa, during the same time period?

[Mark Rippetoe]

Perhaps this can explain it: How Florida's nursing home strategy spared it widespread deaths seen in NY, NJ | Just The News

New York is a great place to live and work: NYC building inspectors use stakeouts against contractors

[muntz]

I have a question about the virus, and it is something I just don't quite understand.

It is my opinion that this virus ran through Tampa in December/January. Anecdotes only of asses having A LOT of kids out, adults sick, etc.

How is it possible that Tampa got this thing, but NYC didn't? How did NYC have so many more deaths vs a place like Tampa? (I am assuming death rates are not equal in the 2 areas)

Is it just that people are packed like sardines in NYC?

Is it possible that a virus didn't get exposed to one of the world's most traveled and visited cities, but it did run through little Ole Tampa?

apparently, gentically, the virus came into NYC via flights from Europe. without googling, im bettng there are a fewwwww more flights coming into nyc than tampa/st. pete.

Shitty question phrasing......

How did this thing seemingly kill so many people in NYC all of a sudden, but NOT kill so many people earlier? And related...how did it kill so many in NYC, and - comparitively speaking - kill nearly no one in Tampa, during the same time period?

real question.....when did they start testing?

Perhaps this can explain it: How Florida's nursing home strategy spared it widespread deaths seen in NY, NJ | Just The News

New York is a great place to live and work: NYC building inspectors use stakeouts against contractors

yes. nyc regulations are a complete fuckign disaster. alot of the time you can only get an inspectors approval etc. if you pay someone off. I got my apartment painted in nyc for HALF what our friends paid down the street paid. Still, it was a bit more than DOUBLE what I paid to get the entire interior of my house in Atlanta painted (and that house was a few hundred square feet larger. And they threw in the garage for free......So...fuck the inspectors and fuck the contractors.