COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 343

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  1. #3421
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    Quote Originally Posted by David A. Rowe View Post
    Am I the only one who didn't want to shut down the economy when it was still reasonably plausible for 250,000+ people to die before April was over? Am I the only one who chuckles grimly at the hubris that modern man believes that we can, because of our current medical advances, stop something as prevalent and old as a virus from running its course? It's as ludicrous as the plot in one of those Sci-Fi shows or movies where humanity has a chance fighting against aliens advanced enough to come to us. At least in those movies, everyone presumably not in the major cities where the aliens land gets to go to work.

    I have never been more convinced that these elite Marxists are going to propel us to a truly abysmal outcome beyond just a virus than I am now. It's very, very hard not to hate them for it. If they were dogs, you'd assume they have rabies.
    We've stopped plenty of viruses. Other than the kids of Anti-Vaxers, every American child is vaccinated against the many viruses, including: Polio, Hepatitus A&B, HPV, Measles, Mumps, Rubella. In fact, it was due to the vaccines that we largely stopped these terrible diseases. Check out Jonas Salk, some time.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    I know, I said I was going to delete this shit, but you guys seem to be enjoying it. This was six posts, btw. There are some gems in here, I'll have to admit, like how he knows what farmers do. Bruno was an Intellectual Collosus in contrast. More importantly, this is what the general public has been taught to think, and it's going to be a huge problem.



    There are 4 countries on this chart, and some vertical exaggeration. Who are you, Ancel Keyes?

    Sorry, that was unnecessary.
    I chose the other Nordic (Ex-Iceland) countries simply because I thought they'd be the most comparable. If you'd like Rolling 3-day confirmed deaths from Covid, here's that:
    Daily confirmed COVID-19 deaths, rolling 3-day average - Our World in Data

  2. #3422
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    Quote Originally Posted by darrowdisciple View Post
    In simple terms, influenza deaths are reported as estimates, generally 6 times higher than actual deaths, and COVID-19 deaths are actual deaths. The simplest controlled environment for calculation was the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship. Adjusting for all of the statistical issues the ship had "a case fatality rate of 0.5% ... still 5 times the commonly cited case fatality rate of adult seasonal influenza."
    That ship was full of elderly people, far more proportionally than exist in everyday life in typical poulations. What is the death rate for the flu in nursing homes, and would it be fair to assume that same fatality rate among the general population?

    Darrow, you did not respond to a single one of my thoughtful discussions of your previous posts, and published this irreplicable (in everyday life) example instead.

    TD, you're next to avoid thoughtful debate....though I hope you don't!

  3. #3423
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    Quote Originally Posted by muntz View Post
    We've stopped plenty of viruses. Other than the kids of Anti-Vaxers, every American child is vaccinated against the many viruses, including: Polio, Hepatitus A&B, HPV, Measles, Mumps, Rubella. In fact, it was due to the vaccines that we largely stopped these terrible diseases. Check out Jonas Salk, some time.
    I just checked him out, because I'd never heard of him before your very useful mention of his name, me being a poorly-educated dumbass. He sounds like an important guy. Maybe I can get him on the podcast. But it appears as though Dr. Salk never developed a vaccine for a coronavirus. It appears as though none of the diseases you mentioned are caused by coronaviruses. Maybe this is important! And my reading just now, looking up Jonas Salk who I'd never heard of before, being 64 and having lived through the polio epidemic in the 50s and gotten his vaccine in fucking 1963 or some shit, indicates to me that there are important considerations regarding vaccines:

    1. If a virus mutates rapidly, it makes no sense to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in building it if the damn thing stops working almost immediately, and especially if it is rolled out prematurely and forcibly imposed on a populace not at actual risk of death from the disease. Remember that the first SARS vaccine fucked things up.
    2. No vaccine provides the quality of immunity that having the disease provides, if immunity can be provided -- you don't get immune to herpesviruses. COVID-19 kills very old people in rest homes, and that's about all. This is why you should want Governor Cuomo, Whitmer, et al tried for murder, if you're actually serious about this.
    3. Since the disease is famously asymptomatic in more that 50% of infections, the disease in not serious for the vast majority of people, as demonstrated conclusively by even the shitty doctored death data we currently have:

    https://miro.medium.com/max/2000/1*A..._IPp_f3msg.png

    https://miro.medium.com/max/2000/1*f...nABXIlwpRw.png

    https://miro.medium.com/max/2000/1*C...fA2fa-hpCQ.png

    4. Given these facts, it makes no sense to do anything other than to quarantine the frail elderly and let everybody else do what everybody has been doing since the Dawn Of Time: get sick, get over it, and become immune. Any other suggestion is about politics and power.

    I chose the other Nordic (Ex-Iceland) countries simply because I thought they'd be the most comparable. If you'd like Rolling 3-day confirmed deaths from Covid, here's that:
    Daily confirmed COVID-19 deaths, rolling 3-day average - Our World in Data
    Because Sweden is the only example of a country with no lockdown, and disaster followed. You are comparing a flattened curve in other countries with an unflattened curve in Sweden. See the problems?

  4. #3424
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrooklynJerry View Post
    , but I like Rip's idea of automatically voting against the incumbent. That way I'm at least keeping the rats on their toes instead of throwing away my vote.

    I don't think that's a good idea this presidential election tho!
    We'll see. The Orange One is bound to be more entertaining than Sleepy, but the President doesn't control nearly as much as voters think he does. The office is mostly a release valve for public angst and an emergency buttom in case of a war. It's not a coincidence that acting ability is the most important skill needed to secure the office, especially since the dawn of television.

    Trump's real victory at home is his judicial appointments, and the next big domestic battle is the supreme court nominee once RBG is finally drained of her precious bodily fluids. The next SCOTUS battle is high on my list of potential media drama now that Corona is exiting the stage.

    The Corona virus was used (not created but used) as a cattle prod to jostle public opinion in the "proper" direction. Its batteries are almost dead, but there are still a couple months to go before the election. Who knows what novel contraption they'll come up with for the next act?

  5. #3425
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    You ignore that infecting others is the issue. Perhaps I don’t care so much about myself, but what right do I have to infect others? How people miss that is beyond rational thought.

    "We've stopped plenty of viruses."

    Nope. We've "stopped" only one virus, small pox. The rest still circulate, but because sensible people get vaccinated, or schools require them, herd immunity protects most people. COVID-19 will continue to circulate until 60%-70% of the population is infected, and since Johns Hopkins publishes the case-fatality rate at approximately 6%, a rough calculation results in about 700k deaths IF we follow sensible distance and mask-wearing restrictions while re-opening. That's about equivalent to the 1918 influenza pandemic. Go whole-hog as suggested here? Might as well throw human waves at a heavily armed enemy. Not all the good guys will die, but who wants that kind of war?

  6. #3426
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    I just checked him out, because I'd never heard of him before your very useful mention of his name, me being a poorly-educated dumbass. He sounds like an important guy. Maybe I can get him on the podcast. But it appears as though Dr. Salk never developed a vaccine for a coronavirus. It appears as though none of the diseases you mentioned are caused by coronaviruses. Maybe this is important! And my reading just now, looking up Jonas Salk who I'd never heard of before, being 64 and having lived through the polio epidemic in the 50s and gotten his vaccine in fucking 1963 or some shit, indicates to me that there are important considerations regarding vaccines:

    1. If a virus mutates rapidly, it makes no sense to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in building it if the damn thing stops working almost immediately, and especially if it is rolled out prematurely and forcibly imposed on a populace not at actual risk of death from the disease. Remember that the first SARS vaccine fucked things up.
    2. No vaccine provides the quality of immunity that having the disease provides, if immunity can be provided -- you don't get immune to herpesviruses. COVID-19 kills very old people in rest homes, and that's about all. This is why you should want Governor Cuomo, Whitmer, et al tried for murder, if you're actually serious about this.
    3. Since the disease is famously asymptomatic in more that 50% of infections, the disease in not serious for the vast majority of people, as demonstrated conclusively by even the shitty doctored death data we currently have:

    https://miro.medium.com/max/2000/1*A..._IPp_f3msg.png

    https://miro.medium.com/max/2000/1*f...nABXIlwpRw.png

    https://miro.medium.com/max/2000/1*C...fA2fa-hpCQ.png

    4. Given these facts, it makes no sense to do anything other than to quarantine the frail elderly and let everybody else do what everybody has been doing since the Dawn Of Time: get sick, get over it, and become immune. Any other suggestion is about politics and power.



    Because Sweden is the only example of a country with no lockdown, and disaster followed. You are comparing a flattened curve in other countries with an unflattened curve in Sweden. See the problems?
    Hey Rip - the Jonas Salk mention wasn't for you, but for the guy who said " Am I the only one who chuckles grimly at the hubris that modern man believes that we can, because of our current medical advances, stop something as prevalent and old as a virus from running its course? My answer was: "Yes, actually. And we do it with almost every kid born in America."

    And, GREAT point on flattened vs. unflattened curves, actually. I'm guessing your point is that the infection and morbidity is just on a more "normal" curve. We'll find out if you are right. And, barring any treatments or vaccines, I'm betting you are right. But, a flattened curve also frees up hospital beds treat other illnesses. Montgomery, Alabama is down to very very few ICU beds due to a surge in COVID-related hospitalizations.

    Also, maybe NYC is different from other places, but over 20% of confirmed Covid-related mortality in NYC is in the 45-64 year old age group. And, I know you'll say they had underlying conditions, but a VERY large percentage of all adults have "underlying conditions." 48% of American Adults have heart disease, frinstance. And when you add all the other stuff like GERD, asthma, etc, etc, etc., you can bet that over half of any sample of people 45-64 is likely to have "underlying conditions."

  7. #3427
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    Quote Originally Posted by darrowdisciple View Post
    COVID-19 will continue to circulate until 60%-70% of the population is infected, and since Johns Hopkins publishes the case-fatality rate at approximately 6%, a rough calculation results in about 700k deaths IF we follow sensible distance and mask-wearing restrictions while re-opening.
    It is obvious that you have somehow learned to type. $100 says you didn't learn to walk until you were 5.

  8. #3428
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    Quote Originally Posted by muntz View Post
    Montgomery, Alabama is down to very very few ICU beds due to a surge in COVID-related hospitalizations.
    And Virginia has never used more then 20%.

  9. #3429
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    Quote Originally Posted by muntz View Post
    We've stopped plenty of viruses. Other than the kids of Anti-Vaxers, every American child is vaccinated against the many viruses, including: Polio, Hepatitus A&B, HPV, Measles, Mumps, Rubella. In fact, it was due to the vaccines that we largely stopped these terrible diseases. Check out Jonas Salk, some time.
    None of which had edicts mandating that everyone cower in their sheep pens. The most I can remember as a kid, this was before the Salk vaccine, was my mother keeping me out of puddles or other water that was stagnant or had algae on it. Back then, polio was thought to maybe be transmitted by such water vectors. Governor Stratton did NOT, however, have police patrolling bodies of water and bruiting away about water testing and contact tracing.

    Thanks for the most excellent example, and here's your sign.

  10. #3430
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark E. Hurling View Post
    None of which had edicts mandating that everyone cower in their sheep pens. The most I can remember as a kid, this was before the Salk vaccine, was my mother keeping me out of puddles or other water that was stagnant or had algae on it. Back then, polio was thought to maybe be transmitted by such water vectors. Governor Stratton did NOT, however, have police patrolling bodies of water and bruiting away about water testing and contact tracing.

    Thanks for the most excellent example, and here's your sign.
    sorry man, that statement was in response to the guy who said it is hubris to think that we can stop viruses. i just pointed out that with several we mostly have.

    Nothing to do with sheep pens, etc. thank you for the sign (?)

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