COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 351

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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #3501
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    Quote Originally Posted by muntz View Post
    NY Data says 26% of fatalities fall into the 18-64 age cohort.
    Ok. So ~26,000 "not-elderly" adults died from COVID19 in the USA. Approximately 93% of them had comorbidities (2.5 comorbidities each, on average).

    Based on those simple numbers, do you still believe "COVID is highly contagious and deadly to a large percentage of the population".

    Yes or no?

  2. #3502
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    Quote Originally Posted by muntz View Post
    apologies. Rather than imply your question, maybe you can state them?



    Highly Contagious=spreads easily. There are 80k-100k new cases every day. I feel that merits the "highly" qualifier. I won't argue with you if you disagree.
    Deadliness: Of the "resolved" cases, 17% ended in a fatality.

    However, my (poorly worded) point was that 25% of fatalities in NYC (this is what I found data for) were for people under 65.
    I've been bothered by the use of the term "new cases." As more testing is done, we will and are finding more and more people with the antibody. Is this a new "case?" My guess is that the vast majority take this to mean a new infection resulting in illness- resulting in what we've come to expect from the hysteria machine. I'm not able to find how many of these new cases are asymptomatic.

    A positive antibody test is meaningless when it comes to contagiousness. I'd like to see tests that measure viral titer and I have not seen that yet.

    What am I missing here?

  3. #3503
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    Quote Originally Posted by muntz View Post
    Highly Contagious=spreads easily. There are 80k-100k new cases every day. I feel that merits the "highly" qualifier. I won't argue with you if you disagree.
    Deadliness: Of the "resolved" cases, 17% ended in a fatality.

    However, my (poorly worded) point was that 25% of fatalities in NYC (this is what I found data for) were for people under 65.
    I will not argue on if it is contagious. I won't argue about anything. I will ask for clarification.

    on 5:21pm on 5/27/20, you said: "COVID is highly contagious and deadly to a large percentage of the population."

    what are you choosing to define as "the population"? I interpret that as the US population of 330MM people.

    If the 100k deaths YTD is accurate, let's double it to 200k by year's end; heck I'll triple it to 300k Do you think that 300k out of 330MM people is a "large percentage"? That is .0909% of the population. Do you define that as a "large percentage"?

  4. #3504
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Let me try one more time to explain this to you: NYC is an outlier, and nobody but you guys gives a shit about the numbers in NYC. If you get time before you have to catch the subway to see a Broadway play and then eat at an amazing restaurant, look at the other links above.
    Nah, secretly he wants to go back to that watering hole in Georgia so he can come back and talk some more shit about the rednecks there. He's lucky he didn't get a mudhole stomped in his ass last time he was there.

  5. #3505
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    Here;s a summary article of the data that Muntz cannot understand: The Most Important Coronavirus Statistic: 43% Of U.S. Deaths Are From 0.6% Of The Population

  6. #3506
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frank_B View Post
    This actually seems like it would make sense. 18-64 year olds probably comprise the overwhelming majority of infections. As they have in every single country.

    Per this site: New York Population and Demographics (New York, NY)

    The 18+ age group in NYC is 77% of the population and the 65+ group is 11%. This basically boils down to 66% of the people in NYC being between 18 and 64.

    Now, if you account for the fact that pretty much no one under 18 has died, then that means 74% of the people who died, did so from a population which comprises only ~11% of the ENTIRE population, infected or not!

    And that goes back to the three graphs Rip has been showing... Those are per million statistics. There are far fewer millions of 65+ people than there are millions of 18-64 year olds. Yet, per million, the 65+ age groups are clearly outpacing everyone else by a very, very long shot.

    As a whole though, the 18-64 year olds probably do, by their numbers, make up 26 percent.

    It is a complete mistake, though, to simply say 26% of the dead folks are 18-65 without even acknowledging the massive population dynamic differences.
    I think we are mostly on the same page. Yeah - the 18-64 population is much larger than the 65+ population. This is a nice way to look at it. 45-64 is ~26% of the population, while 65+ is ~13% of the population. And the percent of fatalities are 22% and 75%.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kitsuma View Post
    PJMedia.com via TheLibertyDaily.com: Perfect: Texas Bar Owner Asks Mask-Wearers to 'Stay Home Until It's Safe'

    And, Lockdown in US versus No-lockdown in Japan: Newsweek - Japan Ends Coronavirus Emergency With 850 Deaths and No Lockdown
    how'd they keep it to only 850 deaths? Masks helped keep Japan's COVID-19 death toll low, says expert panel | The Japan Times

  7. #3507
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    Here's the kind of information Muntz is informed by: https://twitter.com/ZacBissonnette/s...31575335043072

    Quote Originally Posted by muntz View Post
    Gee, that's a great question!

    This is a troll. No other explanation. I think he's done.

  8. #3508
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rob Waskis View Post
    Ok. So ~26,000 "not-elderly" adults died from COVID19 in the USA. Approximately 93% of them had comorbidities (2.5 comorbidities each, on average).

    Based on those simple numbers, do you still believe "COVID is highly contagious and deadly to a large percentage of the population".

    Yes or no?
    So, "co-morbidities" include well over half the population: heart disease, high blood pressure, asthma, GERD, Crohns, Diabetes. (48% of American adults have heart disease, fyi).

    I think it is "Highly" contagious. You may disagree with the modifier. It is certainly contagious. But, a disease we'd never heard of a year ago is on track to be in the top 5 causes of death in the US. I would call that deadly, yes.

  9. #3509
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Here's the kind of information Muntz is informed by: https://twitter.com/ZacBissonnette/s...31575335043072



    Gee, that's a great question!

    This is a troll. No other explanation. I think he's done.
    If not a troll then I don't know what. Talking to him is like jumping on a waterbed. All of that effort wasted, and the feeling of impending, deep regret if you continue.

    So we're up over 41 million unemployed. How much longer do you figure we'll have to wait before they shut the fuck up about social distancing forever? Also, how many people of that 41 million will permanently reject government (central) planning and control? I can't help but notice my conservative, hippie, libertarian and centrist friends are all saying the same things right now. All of my Leftist friends (who remain) just repeat the talking points.

  10. #3510
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    starting strength coach development program
    As I mention in tomorrow's podcast, my hope is that this complete and utter disaster of government origin will mint 50,000,000 new libertarians.

    From Ray Gillenwater, himself a newly-minted libertarian:

    More broadly, I believe the following concepts are critical for policymakers (and the people that elect/appoint them) to internalize:
    1. Not every problem can be solved
    2. Not every problem should be solved
    3. Sometimes when you attempt to solve a problem, you make it worse
    4. Sometimes when you solve a problem, the unintended consequences are worse than the problem itself
    5. If solving a problem involves controlling other people's behavior, re-read the above list
    Here's what happens when you don't understand these 5 concepts: https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...hz5.1sJNhg--~C

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