COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 432

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  1. #4311
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    I had previously heard Abbott was adamantly against shutting down business in Houston again. Hopefully he sticks to his guns. We've had a few small businesses die off in the past few months in my neck of the woods.

  2. #4312
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Le Comte View Post
    Modelling and its short-comings have been discussed extensively. I don't believe its a polynomial fitting process at all, the differential equations in this area usually lead to solutions that are basically exponential over a certain time period. Forecasting with these can rapidly get out of hand.
    Got it. Thanks.

  3. #4313
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frank_B View Post
    University of Washington predicts a very specific 179,106 deaths from COVID-19 by October 1st.

    COVID-19

    They're not done with this bullshit yet. Today, a bunch of Governors from NY, NJ, and CT decided to put in place a mandatory 14-day quarantine for all visitors to those states who are from states with 10% or higher positivity test rates. So, if Rip is driving a truckload of barbells from Texas to NY to help build a gym, does this mean he has to quarantine for 14 days? I thought we had commerce laws to protect against this sort of tyranny from the states, but I guess while we're wiping our ass with Constitution lately, we might as well do so with this.

    Tri-State to Require Visitors from COVID 19 Hotspots to Quarantine
    I saw that and live in Connecticut, I’m going to Florida in two weeks. What I don’t get is that you can get a covid test at fucking cvs, any walk-in, or any dr office pretty much whenever you want. So for example: I already booked a covid test the day after I get back from florida at the dr office, do I still need to quarantine? It’s all such a joke here.

  4. #4314
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    Quote Originally Posted by George Christiansen View Post
    They want what Che and Lenin and other monsters of history wanted. But done right, of course.
    I'm not saying there's not money power behind it, but I simply don't see how this is a communist revolution. The critical race theory and cultural Marxism aspect, used by these losers as justification for their violence, doesn't make this a communist revolution.

    Traditionally there have been two types of iconoclasm. One type which comes with massive revolution, and the cathartic type which accompanies the end of civilizations. I don't think this kind of iconoclasm can be compared that of massive communist revolutions, like The Cultural Revolution in China or as with the Bolsheviks. At Gobekli Tepe in Turkey, from ~8000BC, they now believe the people who built it were the ones who actually buried it. It's believed they thought it displeased the gods after cycles of invasions and climate change. Same with the toppling of the Easter Island statues.
    There's no Utopian program for these BLM people. There's no year zero they're heading towards. It's a perpetual cathartic act of a society realising Western civilization is in decline.

    The political left has totally given up on structural change with all this violence. I'll say it again, there has not been even a speculative idea from these people about how they can wrestle power back from these big tech monopolies, and corporations, who wield more power than nation states. While these acts have violent and nasty on our streets - the left are structurally impotent. It's virtue signalling, not seizing power. The only person in the whole movement who actually seized power was ya boi Raz The Rapper in downtown Seattle, and it immediately imploded and cucked, changing from the "Autonomous Zone" to the lame sounding "Organized Protest".

    We're going to see more of this, and more "autonomous zones", Islamic terrorism and anarchic anti-white violence and the system as a whole will be able to put up with it without any issue whatsoever. An example, and a good, poetic vision of the future we're in for was while the race riots were in full swing, and statues were being toppled and our culture being erased - Elon Musk was launching satellites into space. Politically, it is a hollow movement but don't get me wrong... culturally, for Western civilization, and for white folks themselves, it is perilous. It is the cultural erasure of our past. It is demographic replacement. After all of this African American rioting, we are going to see massive amounts of white flight out of the cities and into the suburbs. These will be the very people who will be virtue signalling about how they hate rural whites and traditional America.

    I mean, for goodness' sake, why on earth would they need to go to the bother of a massive political revolution in the West? The left can get absolutely everything done it wants to in this liberal egalitarian framework. Their only obstruction is fucking centre-right conservatism, and their beloved universalism.

    All the left needs to do, is do exactly as it has done recently, slowly and repeatedly, one policy change at a time. All the left needs to do is pull the race card, and argue that racial oppression is structural, and the centre-right capitulates.

    The universalist, like Mr. David A. Rowe who passionately opposed my ideas of white advocacy, believes there are no significant and fundamental racial differences that necessarily lead to different material outcomes. While the left makes its persuasive arguments about the structural nature of racism, the universalist disputes this and says people get the outcomes they have, and deserve, because it's all down to individual choice, and individual responsibility.

    Quote Originally Posted by David A. Rowe View Post
    I cannot vehemently disagree more strongly. Anyone would be blind to admit that there is not some element of what makes the individual in their own ethnicity, language and culture, but it is utterly unessential so long as everyone in this country agrees on the ideas laid out in our Bill of Rights and Constitution, and that have been built on iteratively since then.
    However, as a universalist, how do you explain a situation where an entire racial group is so over-represented in crime statistics, for example, with 13% of the population committing half the crimes? The same racial group, on average, is filling up the prison population, and are far poorer, and unemployed at higher rates, etc. How does the universalist challenge the left, and explain these figures without being racist? They cannot. They'll try to argue that the millions of people in said racial group, who are behaving this way, just so happen to ALL be making bad decisions as individuals, and are failing to take personal responsibility as individuals. Failing that, they'll pretend they are colour-blind, blame it on "culture" and will call the left the real racists for even categorizing people along those lines in the first place.

    It's strange how even on a strength training forum where adaptation is most definitely our thing, we might feel uncomfortable even kicking around the idea that different groups of humans have evolved to adapt differently, both morphologically and mentally, in response to the different ecological conditions and stresses placed upon them. Nothing about race is superficial. Racial differences are adaptations to difference ecologies. To say it is just a social construct, like a lefty, is a lie. To say it is wholly irrelevant, like a universalist, is also a lie.

    It's also quite interesting that Mr. David A. Rowe would feel compelled to launch into this passionate defense of individualism and universalism just because I said I wanted white people to have a space to collectively advocate for themselves. I did not say I wanted white people to harm people of colour, which would have been explicit racism. He characterized what I said as implicitly racist, because I acknowledge racial differences and the reality of racial in-group preferences.

    I think things are slowly changing, actually. I've noticed conservatives like Shapiro and Candace Owens becoming more desperate, and are sounding more and more like far-right Jared Taylor's recently, quoting black police death numbers and other racial crime statistics in response to the BLM riots.

    As for Trump, he clearly did make numerous comments which spoke to his voters' concerns about racial issues. The examples are numerous. They're all over the place on Twitter and in the media. I don't care about it, I don't find it troubling, and enjoyed the way the left went into convulsions about it. He's not going to be able to do it in such a believable way this time. After his performance, he can't really take such a strong stance, as he did with his Arizona immigration speech in 2016. Just read it and try to imagine him going in this direction again:
    Full text: Donald Trump immigration speech in Arizona - POLITICO

  5. #4315
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Le Comte View Post
    Modelling and its short-comings have been discussed extensively. I don't believe its a polynomial fitting process at all, the differential equations in this area usually lead to solutions that are basically exponential over a certain time period. Forecasting with these can rapidly get out of hand.
    Think they’re running a Kalman filter with, say, hypothesis testing?

  6. #4316
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    Quote Originally Posted by VNV View Post
    This is not surprising or contradictory in any way. Deaths lag behind cases .... as bad infections take a while to progress to the critical phase and then a death is counted. Maybe something like 3 - 4 weeks lag.

    So the reopening happened, sure it might take a month or so for the shit to spread around. Delays in testing and getting results, and the reporting to go into the State health dept.

    Then, it'll take a while for it to feaster in some people with weaker immune symptoms.

    The death rate will creep back up for sure. Give it time.

  7. #4317
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post

    So, are there times that Houston or other metro areas run at this capacity? I don't know enough about it to comment on that. However, if only 27% of the patients were admitted due to Covid, seems that they'd be running at 70% without it? How many are ALSO Covid positive and it is not the causative agent for admission?

    I HATE being this cynical.

    sb

  8. #4318
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    Mark, I was thinking the same thing and thought Border Patrol to an extent could handle riots. But, I’m sick of people like George who over estimate what LEO can do in these times. LEO, State, Local, County, and Federal are handcuffed by the liberals who run these cities. Just seeing what happened in NYC makes me sick, letting these people destroy hard working people’s stores in the name of “racial justice” drives me nuts. As much as I and other LEOs would like to go out in full force and stop the crime, we can’t. For example, NYC put out a curfew to which the ADA said “we will not prosecute any curfew violations.” So now you arrest someone, they are automatically bailed, and face no repercussions. It is sickening and motivates the criminals.

    Sending in the Feds, who have very little if any jurisdiction, wouldn’t solve any issues. In fact it would probably make it worse, because people would say President Trump sent in an army and blah blah blah. The Feds are investigating and arresting who they can and they will also continue to assist PDs as needed.

    George needs to stick to whatever it is that he does.

  9. #4319
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    W. M. Briggs made a similar point, that the suppressed hospitalizations are starting to show.

  10. #4320
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    Quote Originally Posted by strongmonkey View Post
    I have watched some of these "protests" through live streams on Youtube, whereby the footage is as it happens on the ground and without any censorship. It gives you an idea of how these people actually think, act and organize without a media organisation putting their spin on it.

    All I can say after observing for several weeks, is that the vast majority of the time these protest groups are at best disjointed and chaotic in terms of their ability to work together. Half of the time they walk around like zombies arguing amongst themselves about where to march, how fast to walk, who is in charge, who should hold the megaphone...this list goes on. In between the normal activities of yelling verbal abuse at cops and monotone chanting, I've seen these groups splinter on countless occasions and attack each other more than I have seen any uniformity to fight their common cause.
    Yeah, but these folks are DANGEROUS! Requiring the full force of superior rough men standing ready to do violence. At least according to some.

    It's worth saying again:

    Thing 1 - These are a disorganized grabasstick bunch (as R. Lee Ermey used to say) who couldn't get a clusterfuck together.
    Thing 2 - This is happening in a handful of counties out of 3000 or so in the US on a few main streets and blocks of some cities in those counties.

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