COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 482

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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #4811
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    Quote Originally Posted by JordanNewell View Post
    Do you people understand the difference between "hospitalization" and "utilization?"

    You missed the whole bit where the heads of several hospitals states that they are operating within capacity for the time of year, right?

    Reading the small debate about trusting experts, I was reminded of this very important essay written by John Hansas titled "The Myth of the Rule of Law."

    THE MYTH OF THE RULE OF LAW By John Hasnas : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive

    It has become a cult piece and unfortunately does not get a wider reading as it should.

    What the matter of trusting experts comes down to is whether or not people can act as if incentives don't matter. It's the old Public Choice analysis. Why do people believe that if they hold a certain title, or wear a certain costume, do they somehow become free of basic human motivations and act in contrary to basic human psychology? The answer is, "they don't." Mr. Hansas's essay is written about the legal world, but the analysis is applicable in a much broader sense.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Satch12879 View Post
    Do you people understand the difference between "hospitalization" and "utilization?"

    You missed the whole bit where the heads of several hospitals states that they are operating within capacity for the time of year, right?
    Hospitals like to be full. Just like restaurants and gyms. If we're "allowed."

    Quote Originally Posted by JordanNewell View Post
    Fascinating graph. Especially considering the fact that all hospitals in Texas were almost empty for the months of March, April, and May, and laying off staff. Suddenly, we get to go to the hospital to have our hip replaced, everybody who is admitted to the hospital is tested, and everybody who is pos gets coded as a COVID admission, and thus paid for by the feds. GODDAMMIT, can you not think?

  3. #4813
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    Quote Originally Posted by alsbos View Post
    How do you know if someone is an expert? Well, in if they are an expert in scientific research then they will have the appropriate education and work experience, and a large body of published work in the particular area they claim to be an expert in. How do you think companies hire experts in particular areas?
    And that is why scientism thrives.

    In the real world expertise is measured by success. I was an expert contractor/remodeler to the degree that I could provide long lasting improvements to people's homes within the budget we agreed to. The strength coach is an expert because he gets compliant clients stronger.

    The measure of an expert in science should be their ability to predict outcomes based on their knowledge and experiments. Everything else is smoke and mirrors. Story telling in disguise.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Hospitals like to be full.
    Precisely. How on earth is it that everyone does not see this very simple fact? Its like Occam's razor again.

    Why are the hospitals so full?

    Because they want it that way and they are managed to stay that way.

    Quote Originally Posted by George Christiansen View Post
    And that is why scientism thrives.

    In the real world expertise is measured by success. I was an expert contractor/remodeler to the degree that I could provide long lasting improvements to people's homes within the budget we agreed to. The strength coach is an expert because he gets compliant clients stronger.

    The measure of an expert in science should be their ability to predict outcomes based on their knowledge and experiments. Everything else is smoke and mirrors. Story telling in disguise.
    Very true. And the assumption that somehow scientists and doctors can't be swayed by fame.

  5. #4815
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    Quote Originally Posted by Harshray Koladdy View Post
    I'm inclined to listen to them and believe them , because they are the experts on this matter. Just like I'd listen to your advice on strength training because you are the expert on the said subject matter. Surely an expert is an expert for a reason, correct?
    How do you know that they are experts? Do you even know how they came to their conclusions? What about the people that disagree with them?

    The comparison to trusting that Rip is an expert actually demonstrates why these other folks deserve skepticism.

    Rip:

    1-Presented an actual rationale for his theories in the SS book and the thousands of other sources he has put out here and on video and in seminars.
    2-Gave you a testable and falsifiable theory and the protocol to do so, which I assume worked for you and thus verified his theory.
    3-Has run his "experiment" with thousands of clients either directly or through someone who used his theory, which further verified his conclusions.

    On top of this, Rip has given us access to a lot more of his thinking and education in general to demonstrate whether or not he is a reasonable and honest person in general.

    This may not make him an expert per se and certainly not an expert in anything more than the contents of SS, but he has earned your trust through measurable means when it comes to how to get noobs stronger fast, right?

    I see no resemblance to this and how you are measuring the expertise of these other folks:

    - Total strangers and thus no means to know their driving motivations.
    - An education that you likely have next to zero idea of the contents of.
    - An association that that you likely have next to zero idea of the qualifications for.
    - A business/patient history that you likely have next to zero idea of the success rate of.
    - Presenting a theory entirely without reference to the rationale or the data that the rationale is based upon and that is contradicted by other people who claim the same expertise.

    Quote Originally Posted by Satch12879 View Post
    Florida has relaxed restrictions for a month; hospital utilization is unchanged. We’ve seen this in Texas, as well. Santana can tell us about Arizona.

    The goal post shifting is fucking tiring.
    It varies county by county, but Florida has taken some steps backwards based on the fact that the Karens are too stupid to see the link between the massive increases in testing and the "spike" in positive cases.

    I am not sure what is happening with hospitalizations, )I'm honestly suffering from a fatigue of sorts after spending such an inordinate amount of time studying this before the riots came along and too lazy to look), but deaths are still on the decline. We've already seen ship[s and makeshift hospital show up overnight, so screw hospitalizations too.

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    Quote Originally Posted by johnst_nhb View Post
    Very true. And the assumption that somehow scientists and doctors can't be swayed by fame.
    Like Fauci and the Scarf Queen.

  7. #4817
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    Quote Originally Posted by Harshray Koladdy View Post
    If they don't then who does? Not me, and certainly not most of the posters here. These guys are literally qualified doctors. Does their qualification mean nothing? When I see a coach with an SSC certification it means I know that she/he is a genuine coach with proper credentials and I can trust their advice on strength training, a topic they are an expert in. In a similar vein on the topic of a pandemic disease, I would rather trust a doctor than not. I agree not all doctors are equal, but most of them know what they are talking about. An entire association of doctors being wrong seems much more unlikely compared to people on the internet being right.

    As an aside, I also think that by "working out in the gym" the chart refers to the generic fitness gyms with no social distancing as opposed to Starting Strength gyms, which I appreciate have already had a spaced out setup. I'll fully agree that the risk factor in a Starting Strength gym will be considerably lower compared to a generic fitness gym.



    You have always been an objective poster, so I'm surprised you would nitpick and choose to paste 2 sentences that really have no bearing on the analysis.



    Isn't there a difference between a politically driven agenda and the medical aspect of the current situation? What political agenda would the Texas Medical Association want to further by warning you about the risk factors of Covid19?



    This is exactly my point. They're not the expert, because they don't have the SSC certification, which is why I won't trust them! This is exactly why, like the personal trainer, I and presumably you and majority of the posters here are not qualified to actually make our own decision about this. On the other hand, we all would completely trust an SSC on matters of strength training precisely because of their qualifications, therefore it baffles me as to why you would not have the same line of thinking regarding doctors on a subject that they are clearly more knowledgeable about than the majority of us.
    The SSC certification is meaningful because it has a very substantial fail rate. I also imagine if they encounter someone with the certification going out into the wild and doing a bad job, they will probably withdraw it. Medical doctors, on the other hand, do not seem to encounter similar rigor. There are terrible, stupid fucking doctors out there. And you can even encounter a situation where the majority of doctors in a particular field of medicine are dead fucking wrong with their take. I have. Anecdote incoming.

    In my mid 20s, I was diagnosed with a condition called keratoconus. Basically my corneas were being degraded by...something (they really haven't nailed down WHAT causes it yet) and began to deform slightly, having a negative impact on my vision. The first doctors I saw insisted it was "chronic eye rubbing". If you ask anyone I spend a lot of time around, I do not "chronically eye rub". Every one of them told me the treatment was going to be large, rigid contact lenses (you know how they have those "barely there" kinds for people with normal vision problems? The opposite of those), until the condition got so bad I needed a corneal transplant. A corneal transplant is taking your corneas off, and replacing them with corneas from a dead person, in case that wasn't obvious. The surgery has an 85% success rate and something like a half year recovery time. You generally only find out you're in that 15% that it doesn't work with until well into that recovery period.

    Family and I decided to do some research, obviously, because this was not an ideal solution to this problem. I found that the rigid contacts they insisted were the fix can actually CAUSE keratoconus from wearing them too long. For the record, I did also try wearing them, I couldn't. I was ripping at the upholstery in the arms of the chair at the doctor's office when they were put in. I couldn't wear the fucking things.

    I did discover there was an interesting treatment that reinforced the collagen of the corneas that hadn't caught on in the US but was being used in other countries already. Discussing it with these doctors, they didn't merely say they didn't know about it, or that they were wary of it because it was untested, but they straight up told me IT DIDN'T WORK. That was the opinion of these "experts", it didn't work. Thankfully, we managed to find a guy in California who WAS practicing the procedure and the family helped me get out there to get it done. It didn't reverse the condition, but it has prevented any further degrading since, exactly as advertised. Here's what's really crazy though. A year or two after I got it done, the procedure underwent FDA testing. Today, ten years after I was diagnosed, it is part of THE STANDARD TREATMENT for keratoconus. The procedure that "didn't work" according to "experts" I saw 10 years ago, is now what they basically do to EVERYONE who's diagnosed. So no, I do not place overwhelming weight on the opinions of "experts". I am skeptical of everything and everyone, and you should be too. I don't even give the statements of Starting Strength Coaches absolute weight (though the amount I do give them in my view is considerable). No one is immune to the universal human failing of being wrong about things.

    On top of that, there is no such thing as an "expert" on COVID-19. It hasn't been studied long enough for there to be experts on it. The closest to experts are probably the Chinese researchers who created it.

  8. #4818
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Hospitals like to be full. Just like restaurants and gyms. If we're "allowed."



    Fascinating graph. Especially considering the fact that all hospitals in Texas were almost empty for the months of March, April, and May, and laying off staff. Suddenly, we get to go to the hospital to have our hip replaced, everybody who is admitted to the hospital is tested, and everybody who is pos gets coded as a COVID admission, and thus paid for by the feds. GODDAMMIT, can you not think?
    Actually, the more likely scenario is: you come for your hip replacement, get tested for COVID, test positive, and are sent home to quarantine for 2 weeks (or whenever they reschedule your hip surgery for). You are not hospitalized for asymptomatic covid, and if you have been waiting at home for the hip replacement, you will continue to wait. Hospitals like to be busy, but not full. Full hospitals lead to worse outcomes. Prolonged hospital admissions lower profit for hospitals. Hospitals have a financial incentive to get people in and out as quickly as possible. Many payments to hospitals are capitated, meaning you get paid a flat rate by diagnosis. If you keep someone longer, you spend more overhead on them without generating more income, and your profit goes down. Best to have a short, sweet admission.

    I have worked daily in a hospital for over a decade, and every single day has started with looking at the patient list and thinking or asking the team: which of these people can we possibly get discharged today? Average lengths of stay are tracked by hospital administrators and insurers, and when they trend up, this is a problem.

    Health care economics are unlike most other industries, and the financial incentives of hospitals, doctors, and insurers don't always line up with the goals that you think they should.

  9. #4819
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    Quote Originally Posted by George Christiansen View Post
    And that is why scientism thrives.

    In the real world expertise is measured by success. I was an expert contractor/remodeler to the degree that I could provide long lasting improvements to people's homes within the budget we agreed to. The strength coach is an expert because he gets compliant clients stronger.

    The measure of an expert in science should be their ability to predict outcomes based on their knowledge and experiments. Everything else is smoke and mirrors. Story telling in disguise.
    I don't know what 'scientism' means to you, but it sounds bad.

    The work product of most scientists is not a prediction, but instead a 'product' that has market value. For instance, material chemists invented non-stick teflon and I assume the material that covers stealth bombers. These are tangible products that have value. The only scientists who produce things that don't have market value are going to be in academics and sometimes the government (for obvious reasons).

    Of course, data scientists at places like google make predictions (for sales and other reasons), but again this work product has real market value.

  10. #4820
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    Quote Originally Posted by alsbos View Post
    ...How do you know if someone is an expert?...
    These are my criteria for deciding who is an expert:

    1. Did they pay enough money to get a degree or certificate?

    2. Did they show enough subservience, virtue signalling and conformity to get hired on and subsequently promoted?

    3. Were they cautious enough or narrow-minded enough to avoid asking the questions they were taught they can't ask?

    4. Do they look the part and have the stereotypical mannerisms I would expect?

    5. Do they say what I want them to say in a pleasant tone without challenging my preconceived ideas or ideals?

    If the answers to all of these criteria are "yes", He/She/It is an expert.

    I will faithfully trust them with all of my heart, might, mind and soul.

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