COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

[George Christiansen]

They design experiments to prove a hypothesis and then conduct the experiment and interpret the results..

Yeah. Make a prediction (kind of exactly what a hypothesis is). Test it (design experiments to prove/falsify the hypothesis/prediction). Present the confirmed hypothesis/prediction to the interested parties so that THEY can turn it into mass produced products.

Just like I said. 100% the same damned thing.

So yes, the first teflon was synthesized by a team, and then tested in a lab by another team (or perhaps the same team). This was done in an iterative fashion over and over, till the results were promising enough to proceed to the next step. The chemist makes the material in the lab, with their own hands. This is how all wet-lab research on the planet earth is done, and is the very basis of science. Nothing goes to a 'manufacturer' until years of testing have been done (depending up on the product). I run a research group, I know how this is done.

Of course they have to try produce an example via the experiments otherwise they are not testing their prediction. But it is not the thing created in the lab that creates the value of Teflon. It's the confirmation of the prediction, which gives us the "recipe" for Teflon. The scientist doesn't send Teflon products to market. They send the recipe, which is a verified prediction.

I agree Rip has done all the aforementioned things to convince me of his expertise. However even he realized he is one man and he can't coach the entire world all by himself. So guess what he did, he came up with the Starting Strength Coach certification. Now not all coaches other than Rip, can feasibly present a body of work as Rip did, or have their own books or present the database of having coached thousands of clients. So they get the Starting Strength certification. The certification tells people like you and me that the coach is an expert in the methodology of Starting Strength. This is exactly the concept of getting a degree in any field. The degree in medicine tells the general public that the concerned person is a qualified doctor and hence the expert.

Can you not see how ridiculous your comparison is?

The reason I, and presumably you, would send someone we cared about to a SS coach is because I/we know the actual contents of the curriculum and the stringency of the testing/vetting process.

But I would not send someone to an ACE certified coach for the very same reason.

Both groups can call themselves strength coaches or personal trainers. The SS would have to somehow suck in spite of his education, the ACE coach would have to be great in spite of theirs.

Now when you look at an "expert" in medicine, who has presented no rationale for their thinking, as in the article you linked, how is it that you assume that they went through the SS version of being educated and screened vs the ACE version? And how much of either version of medical training are you even familiar with to understand whether the field itself is worthy of the title of expert?

You have never made the experts you are willing to submit to prove themselves an actual expert (as you perceive Rip to be) or to have been taught by an expert (as you perceive the SS coaches to be).

Can you see the difference?

This right here is why I trust the experts more than people on the internet. FYI 100 grams of egg yolk contains 16 grams of protein, whereas 100 grams of egg white contains 11 grams of protein. In a single egg you'll get approximately 4 grams of protein in the egg white and approximately 3 in the yolk. You trust the USDA right or is their expertise not valid here either?

You are just proving my point.

You are aware that normal people measure eggs or any part of them per egg, not per gram, right?

You are aware that there is less protein in the yolk of an egg than in that same egg's white, right?

You think specifically recommending the LOWER protein part of the egg FOR it's protein content is the way to go?

I get that those liquid egg things are a thing too, but, while I'm not entirely sure, I'm willing to bet that they don't sell just yolks versions. I am fairly certain that nobody is buying them for a source of protein if they do.

You'll have to forgive me if I am not particularly ashamed by your lack of faith in me. Ironically, you may have very well proven you point about people on the internet. Just not how you intended to.

[Shiva Kaul]

The probability of them being correct on a subject matter that they have greater knowledge in, compared to you and I, will be more, significantly more

Is that an empirical probability you calculated yourself during the pandemic? Or did you leave that to the Experts as well?

My own bookkeeping: folklore predictions, of NYC case load peaking in mid-April, were correct. Professional CFR and IFR estimates were no better than those of Trump’s “hunch”. PhD-level mathematical models were a complete embarrassment.

I believe in expertise, but it must be demonstrated.

[CommanderFun]

I appreciate that you got the wrong end of the deal. Like I said not all doctors are equal. But lets talk about probabilities. The probability of them being correct on a subject matter that they have greater knowledge in, compared to you and I, will be more, significantly more, than the probability of people on the internet being correct. And this is pretty much valid for every field. I admire your attitude towards questioning everything and getting the answers for yourself, but there is a limit to which one can do so. Unless you put yourself through the rigours of med school you are unlikely to be more correct than someone who has. And I agree with you on not putting overwhelming weight on the opinion of others. But probability wise, the doctors are more likely to know what they are talking about compared to you or I.

What did they learn about COVID-19 in med school? I'd say the probability is pretty high they learned nothing about it, because it wasn't even catalogued as existing when they were in med school. With such a recently-birthed topic, someone diligently scouring the hell out of the internet might actually know MORE than doctors in many cases. Even though the internet is spotty, it is possible to weed out the unreliable information, and the result can be gaining way more information on the subject than someone who went to med school, because no one's had the time to really nail this thing down yet. And I will tell you, that is far from the only instance I've had of dealing with doctors with really bad takes. Just recently I had one try to put me on statins after a single blood test. Never mind that I'm 35, blood pressure and heart rate are excellent(the nurse that took them was genuinely wowed by the numbers), and that lipolysis (the procedure by which stored body fat is broken down and made available for energy) can also raise the level of cholesterol in the blood. Relevantly, I've been on a weight loss diet since January that's been extended since the lockdown has kept gyms closed here. But he didn't seem to care, I really needed those statins, the medicine that comes with a bunch of negative muscular side effects and that statistically wouldn't even lower my chance of heart problems without taking a high dose, and even then, it'd be about a 1% improvement. Guy basically steamrolled all my concerns about the medicine and told me I shouldn't eat eggs anymore.

[Yngvi]

... So no, I do not place overwhelming weight on the opinions of "experts". I am skeptical of everything and everyone, and you should be too. I don't even give the statements of Starting Strength Coaches absolute weight (though the amount I do give them in my view is considerable). No one is immune to the universal human failing of being wrong about things...

Reminds me of several personal accounts of great harm done by trusting the experts. I had a relative who had the wrong type of surgery for an injury based on the opinions of the "expert team of doctors"; It unnecessarily ended his professional athletics career.

When I was younger and more naive, I had a doctor recommend cortisone injections for a tendon injury based on historical precedent and the medical literature. I got a second opinion from a more intelligent doctor who told me that thinking was severely outdated and the treatment would likely cause the tendon to rupture within a few months.

...They are Goldman Sach's friend, but not yours. The central banks are running the world, and pretty badly.

Is it intentional or is it ideology, hubris and incompetence?

Why would companies employ people who don't provide value?

Bullshit Jobs: A Theory by David Graeber review – the myth of capitalist efficiency | Society books | The Guardian

Robot Check

[Yngvi]

There’s an old saying that 80% of the people do 20% of the work, while 20% of the people do 80% of the work. It’s no accident that those who get it done also seem to be the ones who know the most about their jobs. ..

Pareto's Principle. Amazing how often it is an accurate descriptor of a situation.

[od1]

Very good Barry.

An argument can be made for a flu-season mask law. It would demonstrably save many lives, if masks are as effective as claimed.

I’m up for the experiment. Statistical significance would take up to a decade. Ten flu seasons to roughly increase the SNR by ~ 3 (root 10).

Here's a study that I've seed referenced for that one:

Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of face masks | Nature Medicine

Take it for what it's worth ;-)

[Frank_B]

Pareto's Principle. Amazing how often it is an accurate descriptor of a situation.

That’s it! In my experience, it is one of the truest axioms I’ve ever observed. I think it could even be extended to say that it applies to those who are a burden on society vs. those who are productive members of society.

[alsbos]

No. The product of scientists is the prediction.

You cannot patent a prediction.

Yeah. Make a prediction (kind of exactly what a hypothesis is). Test it (design experiments to prove/falsify the hypothesis/prediction). Present the confirmed hypothesis/prediction to the interested parties so that THEY can turn it into mass produced products.

Just like I said. 100% the same damned thing.

Of course they have to try produce an example via the experiments otherwise they are not testing their prediction. But it is not the thing created in the lab that creates the value of Teflon. It's the confirmation of the prediction, which gives us the "recipe" for Teflon. The scientist doesn't send Teflon products to market. They send the recipe, which is a verified prediction.

We're so close to getting there. A 'product' is anything with value on the free market. For instance, a patent. What the scientists create with an idea, followed by reduction to practice, is the patent (or a trade secret). This is the 'product' created by the scientist. The patent or trade secrets can then be sold. That is the value directly created by the scientist, the patent.

[Mark E. Hurling]

Pareto's Principle. Amazing how often it is an accurate descriptor of a situation.

Pareto rules! That ratio works for so many things.

[George Christiansen]

We're so close to getting there. A 'product' is anything with value on the free market. For instance, a patent. What the scientists create with an idea, followed by reduction to practice, is the patent (or a trade secret). This is the 'product' created by the scientist. The patent or trade secrets can then be sold. That is the value directly created by the scientist, the patent.

Are you really that obtuse or are the standards for reading comprehension really that low for your job?