COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 561

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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #5601
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    Quote Originally Posted by jfsully View Post
    In the US, we are now closing in on 0.05% of the population dead from COVID. Itís hard to know what percentage of the population has been exposed so far. About 1.5% of the population has had a positive test. I think the fatality rate of COVID infection will turn out to be 0.5- 1%, maybe a little less as we continue to figure out how to treat it. Right now in the US, the fatality rate of known COVID cases is about 3%. I think there are a lot more asymptomatic ďcasesĒ out there, so this rate will come down as the dust settles.

    So if half the US population gets it, and 0.5-1% of those infected do die, we should expect a death toll of about 800k-1.6mil over the next year or however long it takes for the virus to reach half the population.

    Thatís worth some prevention/containment/eradication effort, no?
    Where are you getting these numbers?

    And the answer is a resounding no.

  2. #5602
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    An emergency medicine physician projects that if schools open up in the fall, they'''ll be closed by the end of October due to COVID-19 outbreaks

    From the article:

    Citing the "confluence" of the flu season and increased exposure, one doctor with experience in advising city officials on public health said schools can either taking strict health safety precautions or expect to shut the school down again by the end of October if they reopen.

    This clearly makes him an expert and therefore the entire premise of the article is obviously true.

  3. #5603
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    This is the primary issue that worries us. All of us that are willing to think know the COVID-19 numbers, and we're not scared like we would be if we were discussing Ebola, or the Rage Virus from 28 Days Later. We all know that the flu kills people. So do car wrecks, smoking, and sitting squarely on our asses, none of which have resulted a government takeover of our lives. People die, between 2.5 and 3 million a year in the US. But only COVID-19 -- THIS YEAR, this one time -- has merited the bizarre response we have seen, that has destroyed the economy and irreparably damaged society.

    We're all wondering why this might be. That's the primary issue on our minds, and no discussion of what are in reality trivial death numbers from COVID-19 is going to address this question. Please try to understand: your begrudging admission of the existence of an uncoordinated heavy-handed mess is not satisfying to those of us whose businesses, jobs, and relationships have been gutted, and more Doctor Shit is not what we want to hear. Again, everybody on this board has a lot of respect for you, but in my opinion you need to back up, widen your perspective, and look at the rest of the facts at play here.

    Here's the disease: COVID-19: Data Summary - NYC Health We all know this. It's over, and we need to get back to work and to life, like we always have after flu season. But these idiots are telling us we can't. Every day they run brand-new fear porn to make us doubt what we really know to be true. We're getting mad. It's important to understand why, because very bad things are coming soon.
    Iím well aware that what I write isnít what many people on the board want to hear, so I try to stick to facts and topics where I have solid footing.

    When I look at the big picture, here is what I think: as long as this virus is hanging around, easing up restrictions will lead to more deaths in the short term. I think what youíre seeing is simply that many people (most politicians, but maybe also the majority of the populace) donít have the stomach for it, in the way that you do. I, too, am a rip-the-bandaid-off type, and dragging things out seems more painful.

    But if you want to make the case for facing the reality of some excess deaths due to this virus, you have to also face the reality of what this virus is. Itís different from the flu in several important ways.

    Of course politicians have made hay of the crisis for political and personal gain. And the media have been fearmongering to keep their ratings and relevance up. This is what they do, what we have allowed them to become. Of course most people donít even know what a virus is yet have deep opinions about how this particular virus behaves and how it should be addressed.

    If you want to preach to the choir, you can say almost anything. But if you want to change someoneís mind, itís best to have the supportable facts on your side. If you wanted to discuss mask mandates with someone trying to impose one, and start with ďitís just the flu,Ē you will see their eyes glaze over, the same as yours would if they started with ďitís the End Times Plague.Ē

    All I want to do is keep the facts in the middle, in plain view. Not that I have the True Facts that others donít, but I can see when the medical literature or hospital procedures are misunderstood, whether itís here or on TV. And typing here is more rewarding than yelling at my TV, so thatís what I do.

    Thanks for the forum.

  4. #5604
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    This is the primary issue that worries us. All of us that are willing to think know the COVID-19 numbers, and we're not scared like we would be if we were discussing Ebola, or the Rage Virus from 28 Days Later. We all know that the flu kills people. So do car wrecks, smoking, and sitting squarely on our asses, none of which have resulted a government takeover of our lives. People die, between 2.5 and 3 million a year in the US. But only COVID-19 -- THIS YEAR, this one time -- has merited the bizarre response we have seen, that has destroyed the economy and irreparably damaged society.

    We're all wondering why this might be. That's the primary issue on our minds, and no discussion of what are in reality trivial death numbers from COVID-19 is going to address this question. Please try to understand: your begrudging admission of the existence of an uncoordinated heavy-handed mess is not satisfying to those of us whose businesses, jobs, and relationships have been gutted, and more Doctor Shit is not what we want to hear. Again, everybody on this board has a lot of respect for you, but in my opinion you need to back up, widen your perspective, and look at the rest of the facts at play here.

    Here's the disease: COVID-19: Data Summary - NYC Health We all know this. It's over, and we need to get back to work and to life, like we always have after flu season. But these idiots are telling us we can't. Every day they run brand-new fear porn to make us doubt what we really know to be true. We're getting mad. It's important to understand why, because very bad things are coming soon.
    Rip, the response to the virus has only killed businesses and parts of the economy that were going to die anyway.

  5. #5605
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    Quote Originally Posted by jfsully View Post

    That is certainly possible, though I do’t think that most small business owners will totally give up and go on the dole permanently. Yes, this is an awful economic crisis, and would be even if it had been handled better, and may be worse economically in many cases because of the draconian response to a situation that feels out of control because of the lack of a rational response earlier on. But that doesn’t change what the virus is or isn’t.

    They aren't going to give up. They aren't going to allow the Bezos' and Bloombergs to snap up their market share anymore than a spindly 5th grader allows the high school bully to take his milk money at the bus stop.

    The NY response to the pandemic is perfectly in line withe the rest of Cuomo's record: at all times, support the policy that enriches the "centrist" donor class (and, to a lesser extent, the professional-managerial labor aristocracy) to the most dramatic extent possible.

    In Cuomo's eyes, the small business owners deserve what they get. Why didn't they have enough money squirreled away to survive a 6 month ban on the operation of their business? Because it isn't fair or reasonable to ask them to have done that? Capitalism doesn't care about "fair", capitalism doesn't care about your feelings or your culture or your sanity. It never will.

    Yes, it is true that people would be frightened of the virus even if the government was not using it as an opportunity to wage class war. April 2020 was going to be a really, really bad time to own a nail salon in Manhattan, regardless of the government response. But surely you are not defending the lockdowns that have enriched the titans of industry at the expense of the rest of the nation?

  6. #5606
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Thanks for posting this, but I can't watch Chris Coumo talk to anybody.
    You mean Fredo, the dumbest of the Coumo brothers?

  7. #5607
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcj View Post
    TI don’t see how the comorbidity entails that the person necessarily would have died in the near term without COVID. Statistically I’m sure some would have died, but concluding all would have seems to be a step I don’t follow.
    Two fairly obvious things here:

    1-Covid is highly contagious and also sucks at killing healthy people. So odds of having it are decent. odds of having a deadly dose/batch/whatever are low. So odds are you died of whatever else was there. Sure the Covid could have triggered something, but this is by no means a justified go-to assumption.

    2-How deadly Covid is, and thus the steps worth taking to avoid it, must be justified by comparison to other communicable things. How does it compare to flu, TB, ect? In order to do this you have to count deaths the same way we do for these other things. But we are not. Because of this Covid-19 looks more deadly that these other things and the BS counting justifies different risk aversion methods for them.

    The death numbers are all inflated BS. Sure people are dying of it uncounted, but that is even more true for these other things too.

  8. #5608
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Thanks for posting this, but I can't watch Chris Coumo talk to anybody.
    nah. you should watch.

    those two guys destroy cuomo, and draw a lot of attention to how the various powers fucked up the adult care facilities (i.e. his governor brother killing those people in NY)

    cuomo should have never let those two on; they thought they were going to get two knuckleheads.

  9. #5609
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    Quote Originally Posted by jfsully View Post
    When I look at the big picture, here is what I think: as long as this virus is hanging around, easing up restrictions will lead to more deaths in the short term. I think what you¬’re seeing is simply that many people (most politicians, but maybe also the majority of the populace) don¬’t have the stomach for it, in the way that you do.
    This is not about "the stomach." What happened during the 2017 flu season that required the stomach for just getting on with our lives?

    But if you want to make the case for facing the reality of some excess deaths due to this virus, you have to also face the reality of what this virus is. It¬’s different from the flu in several important ways.
    What are the numbers for excess deaths due to COVID-19 so far, and how will this compare with 2017? Yes, it's different from the flu, but it's also quite similar to the flu in that it preferentially kills certain groups of people and just makes everybody else a little sick for a while.

    From:An emergency medicine physician projects that if schools open in the fall, they'''ll close by the end of October with COVID-19 outbreaks

    Lambert said it could be difficult identifying and separating coronavirus cases and flu cases because of the similarity between symptoms and increased exposure to others.
    I believe that the data shows that flu kills more kids, but it's only this year that we can't go to school. I think you have bought into their premise, and I don't think the data justify it.

    If you wanted to discuss mask mandates with someone trying to impose one, and start with ¬“it¬’s just the flu,¬” you will see their eyes glaze over, the same as yours would if they started with ¬“it¬’s the End Times Plague.¬”
    You and I both know that a Handwashing Mandate would be far more effective in stopping the spread of all these diseases -- assuming that we should actually be interested in doing so, and a lot of people besides me think this is a stupid idea. But a Handwashing Mandate cannot be visually verified, so the default is nice, visible masks that don't do a goddamn thing except signal obedience and virtue. Hell, you can't get the floor staff in a hospital to wash their hands often enough. If you wanted a government intervention that might have a chance of actually doing something, local health departments would require handwashing stations at the entrance of all public buildings, and plumbers would then become the recipients of government favor. But Amazon and Walmart can't get their piece of this, so it won't be done.

    Quote Originally Posted by BMueller View Post
    Rip, the response to the virus has only killed businesses and parts of the economy that were going to die anyway.
    This is the level of discourse among the Left.

    Quote Originally Posted by Haghstull View Post
    Yes, it is true that people would be frightened of the virus even if the government was not using it as an opportunity to wage class war. April 2020 was going to be a really, really bad time to own a nail salon in Manhattan, regardless of the government response. But surely you are not defending the lockdowns that have enriched the titans of industry at the expense of the rest of the nation?
    The more literate the troll, the higher the threshold for deletion? Is this your assumption?

  10. #5610
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    Quote Originally Posted by BMueller View Post
    Rip, the response to the virus has only killed businesses and parts of the economy that were going to die anyway.
    That's sarcasm, surely? No one can be that dense.

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