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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #20421
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    • starting strength seminar april 2024
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    Wal, that ABC clip about "trucks, tires, and [smthg]" was a lot to stomach and should have come with a barf bag warning. The interviewee maybe had something interesting to say but the journalitsъ were so busy trying to ENTERTAIN rather than INFORM that his words all got lost in the mix. That's probably the biggest problem with our "media," that they think their job is to entertain, and they actually enjoy entertaining, regardless of their true role. Kudos, I guess, to you, for watching and reporting back to us on that trash, so we don't have to.

    Reporting from Moscow, I can tell you that ALL COVID restrictions were dropped on 3/16, probably much to Mayor Sobyanin's chagrin.

    And after many informal interactions and conversations, it seems that amongst Russians the opinions about this military operation break along city/country, blue/white collar, intelligentsia/average man, etc lines. As I've said before, I don't think it's ideologies or nations that define us anymore, so much as the cosmopolitan/country divide within countries. i.e. an American urbanite and Muscovite probably agree on a lot more than they do with their American flyover country / Russian from the regions fellow countryman.


    Somebody help me out; how else can the Russian military operation in Ukraine be analyzed, beyond this?

    1. The gubmints and media lied about COVID to benefit themselves for two years (at least!!), so why all of a sudden trust them now?

    Right!? You don't actually BELIEVE them, do you?
    (There are plenty of hilarious memes out there about how so many country-loving, media-distrusting "Conservatives" fell right in line with The Narrative after simply being shown dead civilians and bombed-out buildings)


    2. Having established that we cannot trust them, whose side do you think they're more likely to lie about, as far as inflating civilian casualties and making motives seem saintly, Ukraine's or Russia's?

    3.. If Russians really wanted to engage in genocide and kill lots of Ukrainians, don't you think they'd be killing LOTS more? Or do they suck as much at killing people as the USSR sucked at concocting Coca Cola?

    4. If Russia wanted to kill as many as possible without being noticed for it, do you really think they'd be doing as bad a job of not getting noticed as the lying, [globohomo] western MSM is implying now?

    5. If a hostile press had been hounding US (the Western powers) for our "atrocities" in Iraq and Afghanistan and Libya, exaggerating every single unintended, unfortunate incident of civilian collateral damage, would not that reporting look a lot like what our western press is putting out about Russia right now?


    So, what's your analysis of all this; why are so many falling for The Narrative while I am not; am I really simply a Putin lackey?

    But if you cannot get beyond my point one, if you think the media is being more honest now, after having just blatantly lied to us for two years about COVID (and BTW about the election fraud, and the tea party, and proud Boys, and Hillarygate and Nick Sullivan, and BLM, etc. etc., before that), then I don't think we can get very far on this conversation.

  2. #20422
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    Listen to this Wal and to anyone else interested. A well thought out prognosis from a seasoned veteran.
    Former top Pentagon advisor Col. Doug Macgregor on Russia-Ukraine war - YouTube
    Former senior advisor the Secretary of Defense Col. Doug Macgregor joins Max Blumenthal and Aaron Mate for a candid, live discussion of the Russia-Ukraine war and his time in the Trump administration when an Afghan withdrawal was sabotaged and conflict with Iran and Syria continued.

  3. #20423
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    Quote Originally Posted by wal View Post
    Are you not infringing intellectual properly law? Epoch Times is a drop kick of a publication, but does that mean that some folk would use this method say here on Starting Strength to access premium content? You know about this Mark?

    You can tell wal reported on his neighbors for non-compliance with virus mandates.

  4. #20424
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    At least the UFC still has Russian fighters on its cards. Watching Alexander Volkov in the main event right now.

  5. #20425
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    The "EU Empire"'s ass. These fucking morons are far less organized that we are, and we are fucked:

    The Dominance Of The U.S. Dollar Is Fading Right Before Our Eyes



    And yet cancelling fashionably distasteful pieces of history is gleefully pursued by -- apparently -- everybody on both sides:

    Yuri Gagarin's name censored from Space Symposium conference - Rebel News



    The worst people are in charge of the worst period in recent history. The worst President -- and in fact possibly the worst leader in human history, except possibly Nero, or Caligula, who might have been lied about -- is in the process of gleefully destroying the American economy to appease the stupidest 20% of the most stupid electorate in the history of this country. We deserve it. We are on the way out, and you guys had better make plans.
    Unfortunately, Coach is correct. If you haven't been preparing for a self sustaining way of life, get some books and some tools and start learning now. Teach your children the useful skills that our grandparents used to survive through the great depression and WWII.

    The shit that is coming for us will make what our grandparents went through seem like the county fair on a nice summer day.

    Buckle up friends, it's here. I can't believe it, but it's the end of the world as we once knew it.

  6. #20426
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ryan DCNT View Post
    A while back I read George Friedman's book The Next 100 Years, which detailed various factors that may come into play in determining global hegemony. One of the takeaways was that, historically, the entity that controls the trade routes is the global hegemon. The US, via geography, has border access to the two major global shipping lanes (the Pacific and Atlantic oceans), and due to the size and scale of the US Navy, has enjoyed unchallenged control of the trade routes.

    Contrast that to the EU, which really doesn't even have a naval fleet, and it's hard to imagine them as the next great empire. Add to that the demographic decline and lack of national identity and it's even less likely.

    If anything China is poised to fill that role, however it's just as likely that global hegemony is coming to an end, and we'll see a multilateral split, likely between anglo countries (US, UK, Canada, Aus), the EU, and Russia/China/India/Iran.
    Fantastic book, I regularly re read it. I really enjoy the more speculative aspects of future war being based around mobile infantry exoskeletons and their associated energy supply lines being the key factors. I think that’ll turn out to be seemingly very prescient. The space stations and attacks from the moon maybe not so much. Not without a technology or method to clean orbital debris at least.

    The EU doesn’t have a Naval fleet largely because of Nato. It’s referenced in the book, but the explanation is elsewhere. On a strategic level, Nato is a US invention to disrupt a wider Pan European military from forming that could become a strategic competitor. It does this by essentially paying Europe to not have a military, Nato defense spending is so low because the US takes care of Europe’s defense. When Trump was president, he pointed out this isn’t a great short term deal, but long term it’s a great deal.
    There is plenty of potential naval power in Europe. UK, France, Spain, Portugal, Norway, Germany, the Netherlands. All these countries have been world naval powers in their own right at various points of time. A combined pan European coalition theoretically could quite easily surpass any US military size if one were to wave their magic wand in the right way.

    If I remember the China section of the book correctly, it references China’s strategic imperatives, but they are discussed elsewhere I believe. (Stratfor country profiles if I recall correctly) But China won’t take over the role of global hegemon because it’s never been able to overcome its geographical disadvantages. Largely that it essentially landlocked by geography to any meaningful overland routes, and it’s sea route to the East is blocked by its historically greatest enemies. It would have to overcome and subdue, the Phillippines, Vietnam, Korea and Japan, at once. And as pointed out in the book, historically when the coastal regions of China have opened to the world they have become rich, whilst the interior has remained poor. This has always led to internal turmoil that has collapsed China.

    Although they are trying, though I believe they’ve only ever managed to “break out” once in the 1300’s or so. But the US is certainly helping them, another book on my shelf is Mayday by Seth Cropsey which goes into the weeds a little bit on US Naval Power and how Admiral Halsey set the strategic tone through the 20th century which is being abandoned. He also makes the case that it’s almost impossible to rebuild a navy once you gut it. Historically the outlook is poor.

  7. #20427
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nicholas Laureys View Post

    1. The gubmints and media lied about COVID to benefit themselves for two years (at least!!), so why all of a sudden trust them now?

    Right!? You don't actually BELIEVE them, do you?
    No of course we don’t believe them. At least I haven’t my entire adult life. However, occasionally they are right. I can’t possibly be alone in thinking this as evident by the number of people that post “news” to prove their points.

    In order to understand what is actually happening you do have to understand a very broad point of view and motivation.

    Having said that, the COVID saga was a “gift” in as much as developing good analytical skills (BS detector if you will), Many aspects were data driven which is easier to interpret. God bless math.

    Ukraine v Russia is vastly more difficult to digest, and the “sides” will take longer to form.
    Be patient and continue being persuasive.

  8. #20428
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    I really got to read the links fully before hitting post in my own posts so I can avoid double posting.

    I’m not a smart Man so I’m not 100% confident I understand the Petro dollar and the danger in reserve currencies compared to US debt. I’d appreciate anyone to point out any errors in my thinking.
    Currently the US creates new currency via the Fed, which the US government “owes” repayments too for this new currency. this is “financed” by the issuance of bonds, primarily bought by tax payers, but also other countries. This would normally be a non starter as an investment were it not for the universal need to own US dollars to purchase oil in. A need which every country on earth has.

    The debt on these bonds is largely a non issue (currently) for a variety of reasons;

    a) They can be paid in fiat currency, which in opposition to the article, doesn’t grow on trees because they would imply a set rate as to which it can grow as well as a potentially finite amount. It can just be created, although this is limited in practice due to inflation the same way a writers output while on meth is limited by the bodies capacity to survive.
    b) They’re not all due at the same time.
    c) The world needs dollars more than the US needs to not owe debt as the costs of defaulting are less painful then a country not buying oil.
    d) The act of inflation caused by printing money, lowers the relative value of existing bonds, so the problem also acts as an unintended solution to prior problems. Similar to how the radiant heat of a house fire lowers your heating costs in other rooms.

    Now if oil was purchased in yuan, the above factors would suddenly matter as those bond debts to foreign nations would become a lot more apparent. The normal strategy of issuing new bonds would fail because no-one would buy the new bonds, apart from US citizens. Now factors A, C and D no longer apply and the US suddenly had to pay back large sums of money to foreign creditors or risk default. The alternative is to print more money and solely put the inflationary burden on US citizens alone.
    This is my understanding of what the problem with the US debt is.

    If that’s true, there is a couple of issues that seem apparent to me that will help mitigate this. Or perhaps even unintended benefits. (If there are unintended consequences there must also be unintended benefits, they are two sides of the same coin)

    1) If the US defaults on its debts to foreign nations, or just flat out says “Nope you get 0” presumably it’s credit rating will go to hell. But if no-one wants US dollars any more, what does a lowered credit rating matter anymore? Presumably when borrowing Yuan to purchase oil they will pay a higher interest rate on borrowing. But this leads to my 2nd confounding point that I haven’t seen addressed anywhere.

    2) The US has its own oil, and can be an energy exporter if it chooses. (I am including Canadian oil in America here because I can’t see a scenario where Canada acts independently) Realistically if they do America will just annex Canada. (This isn’t crazy, America and Canada have fought many wars in the past)

    I am also going to assume that the US will only accept oil payments in US dollars. It will also have an advantage in this area as every single country has reserves of US dollars on hand. And combined with point 1, the choice for countries is now: a) exchange now grossly devalued USD for valuable oil (something worthless for something valuable is always a great trade) or b) take the loss on the USD default, takes out an additional loan for Chinese Yuan to purchase oil. Option A seems to be the more expedient one.


    There now exists a system where oil is sold in multiple currencies depending on where you buy it from, Yuan from the middle east/Russia or USD from America. There now remains a (weakened) demand for US dollars which can allow for some new bonds to be issued to pay for spikes in debt repayment and also an inflow of USD to repay internal bond debts to citizens. And the more oil that is bought in USD the more USD will flow, creating competition to undercut OPEC wherever possible.

    I’m not arguing for these two points, I’m just pointing out that they exist and would seem to be the logical choice in response to US debt and losing the petrodollar. Happy to hear any flaws in my reasoning.
    * Obviously there’s a pretty big asterix over the actions of the fucking imbeciles running the country not deciding to self destruct at any opportunity. Who the fuck knows what they’ll do.

  9. #20429
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jovan Dragisic View Post
    Russia gets a third or a half of what is now the Ukraine, the rest of the bullied (“third”) world joins in the new Chinese dominated trading block, Western Europe enters a severe crisis resulting in the possible break up of the EU, China comes in and buys up the healthy segments of the EU economy.
    That is certainly brief. As regards to China they like the rest of us are in debt up to the gunwale.

  10. #20430
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    starting strength coach development program
    Quote Originally Posted by mkm5 View Post
    Unfortunately, Coach is correct. If you haven't been preparing for a self sustaining way of life, get some books and some tools and start learning now. Teach your children the useful skills that our grandparents used to survive through the great depression and WWII.

    The shit that is coming for us will make what our grandparents went through seem like the county fair on a nice summer day.

    Buckle up friends, it's here. I can't believe it, but it's the end of the world as we once knew it.
    Learn about and start using Bitcoin.
    I hate to be repetitive, but as much as material commodities are useful for surviving big depressions, as long as there is a government and fiat money, there is the risk of everything falling to pieces and being in control of psychopaths.
    Destruction is an opportunity for construction. Let's try to create OUR financial system and OUR economy.
    Those commodities that will help you survive (ammo, land, tobacco, gas, guns, wheat, etc...), you can create local markets for it and use bitcoin as a standard for transactions.
    This is what it was created for.
    You don't wanna survive the biggest economic and financial collapse of the last century, just so you have to deal with other psychopaths sitting in government buildings telling you what to do, do you?
    Let's not make the same mistake over and over again.
    Centralized governments are a failure. Democracy is a failure.
    Money runs the world.
    Let's try to run our own money, in a free decentralized way.


    "Power resides where people believe it resides"

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