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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #20441
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    • starting strength seminar april 2024
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    Barry, what makes your post more complex is that the 'experts' are all spouting BS. If I had not been here, I'd be unsure too. Maybe I'm of below average intell8, but it's tough for normal folks to know who and what to trust.

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Charles View Post
    No of course we don’t believe them. At least I haven’t my entire adult life. However, occasionally they are right. I can’t possibly be alone in thinking this as evident by the number of people that post “news” to prove their points.

    In order to understand what is actually happening you do have to understand a very broad point of view and motivation.

    Having said that, the COVID saga was a “gift” in as much as developing good analytical skills (BS detector if you will), Many aspects were data driven which is easier to interpret. God bless math.

    Ukraine v Russia is vastly more difficult to digest, and the “sides” will take longer to form.
    Be patient and continue being persuasive.
    Thanks for posting this editorial... Interesting read. Wouldn't this make Pelosi in line?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    People are starting to speculate about this: Biden’s Handlers Are Preparing to Eject Him (and Kamala) › American Greatness

    It will be the most interesting thing in US history, and it's hard to say how it will affect the Asian situation.

  2. #20442
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    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Charles View Post
    No of course we don’t believe them. At least I haven’t my entire adult life. However, occasionally they are right. I can’t possibly be alone in thinking this as evident by the number of people that post “news” to prove their points.

    In order to understand what is actually happening you do have to understand a very broad point of view and motivation.

    Having said that, the COVID saga was a “gift” in as much as developing good analytical skills (BS detector if you will)
    This covid saga for me is Total HELL. While I did learn different areas of science such as basics in virology, vaccinology and immunology. Basic mechanisms of action of drugs and therapeutics that I never would have thought I would ever look into. Similarly, the basic principles of physics in relation to masks. I suppose I also learned a lot of behavioral psychology as it applies to large populations as well. Add to that a sprinkling of Macro and micro economics. And I am sure many other applied sciences that one needed to delve into inorder to get a basic picture of what we are facing.
    That being said, I would have preferred to delve into these subjects without the pain and anguish that I have experienced and am experiencing due to the conflicts of the time.

  3. #20443
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gilead View Post
    All the Matzah factories and households who make their own matza (unleavened bread) for Passover here in Israel are stocking up on flour. Much more than normal. Matzah prices this year are going to sky rocket above their already high prices.
    I don't actually expect skyrocketing food prices, the panic buying is largely a function of the "everybody is going to starve" government psyop, which has been going on since Covid started. What I meant was that crop and energy prices are the main driver of commodity prices overall. China also contributed to further commodity price increases by buying up industrial metals, minerals, coal, everything. Looking back on it, it is quite obvious that all of this was part of a bigger plan. I am going to go slightly Austrian economics here, in that I will say that inflation is a matter of increasing the money supply. QE is not increasing the money supply, but rather a function of keeping government budgets functional in purely accounting terms - meaning governments can pretend to be paying out the debt holders, and the debt holders can pretend to be ironing out their balance sheets. The net effect of QE is deflationary rather than inflationary, as has been shown from the Japanese experiment 20 years ago all the way to the European depressionary decade.

    So what these moves by both Russia and China have done was to significantly contribute to CPI increases all over the what we might call first world (pretty much all of the countries that have imposed sanctions on Russia). London School of Economics educated economists call this cost-push inflation, or just inflation, but I will go with the idea that inflation only happens when the money supply increases, and it has been decreasing in the same first world for more than a decade. This combination of a deflationary environment with price increases will lead the populace to consider their governments really hard. I wouldn't be surprised if for instance the French military pulls a coup or Germans pull a Reichstag's fire again if things keep going this way.

  4. #20444
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    That's not what I conclude from the study. You?
    Putin's "Empire of Lies" rhetoric is powerful because it's true.

  5. #20445
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jovan Dragisic View Post
    More so, but they don’t care.
    I don't know. The owner of the debt has a strangle hold on the borrower. When a county's debt is larger than their GDP then they can do one of two things, borrow more or go to war.


    Quote Originally Posted by IlPrincipeBrutto View Post
    Works also the other way round.
    And I would say that the first to break promises and principles was definitely not Russia (think NATO enlargement and NATO intervention in Kosovo).
    The disruption, imho, is that someone thought that breaking promises would indefinitely be without consequences.


    IPB
    That is for sure. When the Soviet union broke up there were assurances given to Russia that NATO would not poach old soviet counties to the join the NATO family, but they did. So Russia that bear from the north has turned into one nasty babushka!

  6. #20446
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    Quote Originally Posted by wal View Post
    I don't know. The owner of the debt has a strangle hold on the borrower. When a county's debt is larger than their GDP then they can do one of two things, borrow more or go to war.
    China's total public debt is officially at around 270 percent of GDP. It is likely massively underreported, I would put it at at least 550. However, its external debt (held by foreigners) is less than 20 percent of GDP. I like you wal, you got good instincts, but you are simply terribly disinformed about events in the world. Just stop watching the news, you will notice an immediate improvement in your reasoning abilities.

  7. #20447
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    Quote Originally Posted by mpalios View Post
    …. but it's tough for normal folks to know who and what to trust.
    Yes. It’s tough for ANYONE to know who and what to trust. Somehow we sort things out none the less.

    One thing you can immediately eliminate is the blanket statement “the media always lies”. They all are capable of lying and almost certainly have all been caught lying, but that doesn’t mean everything is a lie.It’s almost mathematically impossible that all the media lies equally, as well as mathematically impossible they don’t get things right once in a while, even if it’s dumb luck.That is not controversial or difficult to understand.

    When I say COVID was a “gift” I don’t mean it was good. I mean it was relatively straightforward for us layman to determine facts from lies. I think every one of us benefited from COVID in terms of developing analytical skills. The COVID debacle is largely a game of numbers.

    I do not believe these skills are as easily applied to Russia Vs Ukraine. This ongoing debacle is far more complex and largely a game of humanity.

  8. #20448
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jovan Dragisic View Post
    ...The other big thing was the Russian decision to block grain exports in early 2020, again as a "response" to the "pandemic". This was coupled with an immediate Chinese hoarding of grain and other foodstuffs. ...So it seems that some kind of low level warfare was going on even before the Covid scam, and we are only seeing a later stage of it.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jovan Dragisic View Post
    ...I don't actually expect skyrocketing food prices, the panic buying is largely a function of the "everybody is going to starve" government psyop, which has been going on since Covid started. What I meant was that crop and energy prices are the main driver of commodity prices overall. China also contributed to further commodity price increases by buying up industrial metals, minerals, coal, everything. Looking back on it, it is quite obvious that all of this was part of a bigger plan.
    Good points.
    It depends where you live; Artificially caused or not, in much of the Middle East and Africa, food prices should skyrocket and will cause massive destabilization.
    We also have to factor in the rising costs and lower exports of fertilizer, which will decrease crop yields.
    Hoarding of food in those countries could also be seen as a preparation for war.

  9. #20449
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gilead View Post
    This covid saga for me is Total HELL. While I did learn different areas of science such as basics in virology, vaccinology and immunology. Basic mechanisms of action of drugs and therapeutics that I never would have thought I would ever look into. Similarly, the basic principles of physics in relation to masks. I suppose I also learned a lot of behavioral psychology as it applies to large populations as well. Add to that a sprinkling of Macro and micro economics. And I am sure many other applied sciences that one needed to delve into inorder to get a basic picture of what we are facing.
    That being said, I would have preferred to delve into these subjects without the pain and anguish that I have experienced and am experiencing due to the conflicts of the time.
    Very well said. You are the go to person for many of us because you did the homework that most of us are too lazy to do.

  10. #20450
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    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Charles View Post
    One thing you can immediately eliminate is the blanket statement “the media always lies”. They all are capable of lying and almost certainly have all been caught lying, but that doesn’t mean everything is a lie. It’s almost mathematically impossible that all the media lies equally, as well as mathematically impossible they don’t get things right once in a while, even if it’s dumb luck. That is not controversial or difficult to understand.
    If the media tells the truth, it is because they have determined that the truth works in their favor. And that's the only reason.

    When I say COVID was a “gift” I don’t mean it was good. I mean it was relatively straightforward for us layman to determine facts from lies. I think every one of us benefited from COVID in terms of developing analytical skills. The COVID debacle is largely a game of numbers
    .

    Barry, I still see people driving down the street in a car by themselves with a mask on. Maybe you mean "every one of us" on this board. But then there is that dumbass from a couple of weeks ago...

    Quote Originally Posted by Gilead View Post
    Yeah, I had a clean copy at the house, but here at the gym is walled. Can somebody help us steal this please?

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