COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

[Sainame]

No, let's just say that you don't know what the fuck you're talking about, and yet you insist on talking about it anyway.

You have already confirmed that you believe there are thousands of civilian casualties in your previous post, so there is no disagreement there. The only thing we are disagreeing on is the number of civilian casualties. You seem to believe that the number of confirmed casualties is the actual number of casualties. I am saying that they are likely vast underestimates. Neither of us can prove this point. We can revisit this later once there are more accurate numbers, but as most of the useless shit you spout, your statement won't age well. I will guarantee you that. Weren't you spouting off about how there was no Russian invasion of Ukraine many pages back when this was all starting? Let me just confirm that for you, yes you were.

[David A. Rowe]

I've been busy, so I apologize for the late reply.

Just because people are utterly incompetent doesn't mean that they're not also intentionally destroying systems that we depend on. I just don't believe they're all so competent that it's all going exactly according to their plan, and the reason this is more catastrophic is because it's likely to spiral completely beyond their control.

We'll hit the ground hard together.

[mkm5]

My understanding of this Soviet test on Tsar Bomba was 50% yield of net destructive capacity, or around 50 megatons. I guess they didn't want to see what would happen with 100 megatons. I don't either.

50 Megaton Tsar Bomba Declassified ? Ivan RDS-220 Hydrogen Bomb - YouTube

[Mark Rippetoe]

You have already confirmed that you believe there are thousands of civilian casualties in your previous post, so there is no disagreement there. The only thing we are disagreeing on is the number of civilian casualties. You seem to believe that the number of confirmed casualties is the actual number of casualties. I am saying that they are likely vast underestimates. Neither of us can prove this point. We can revisit this later once there are more accurate numbers, but as most of the useless shit you spout, your statement won't age well. I will guarantee you that. Weren't you spouting off about how there was no Russian invasion of Ukraine many pages back when this was all starting? Let me just confirm that for you, yes you were.

I'm done. You guys deal with this idiot. Or I can delete him. At least he stopped pretending to be a doctor.

[francesco.decaro]

I'm done. You guys deal with this idiot. Or I can delete him. At least he stopped pretending to be a doctor.

These trolls seem to be repeating themselves a lot, and always shift the focus on pointless arguments like "exactly how many people are dying in Ukraine" or "this father is irresponsible for not wanting to get a covid shot before donating an organ to his son"

I am saying that they are likely vast underestimates. Neither of us can prove this point. We can revisit this later once there are more accurate numbers, but as most of the useless shit you spout, your statement won't age well. I will guarantee you that. Weren't you spouting off about how there was no Russian invasion of Ukraine many pages back when this was all starting? Let me just confirm that for you, yes you were.

No one really knows the number of people dead from this conflict. But as I said, I'm betting your statement/question is not going to age well. I would say we can circle back to this at a later time, but to be honest, I would be glad to be wrong.

Sainame, can you quote Mark and prove your point? If you can't, I would be okay with you not being on the board anymore.
I went back and checked the first 1/2 weeks of posting after the beginning of "The War®" and I only saw two statements from Rip, which are "the media always lies or is factually incorrect" and "we don't know anything about this".
Everything else was just him sharing articles or answering to trolls like you

[Sainame]

I'm done. You guys deal with this idiot. Or I can delete him. At least he stopped pretending to be a doctor.

This is a familiar threat regarding deletion/banning of people who disagree with you. Or in this case when you simply have been called out for the bullshit you say. You were on here literally stating there was no Russian invasion. You don't want admit to being wrong so you immediately resort to the ban. But yes, this is your board so you are free to do as you please. I thought you would have learned by now that this act is pointless. I will officially out myself so you can ban me again. I have had several usernames. It takes all but 2 minutes to create a new account. Obviously I'm not welcome here in your echo chamber, but I do admit that I keep coming back as the arrogance combined with stupidity that draws me in. You're a big dumb idiot, but I just can't quit you. BTW, I never claimed to be a doctor. I said I had a "medical license", which I do. I made reference to what it is that I do for a living several times in the past, albeit with a different (banned) username. I am a Physician Assistant, I work in Cardiology. A lot of the bullshit that gets people riled up on this board is comical. For instance, the story of the elderly pilot who had a heart attack and blaming it on the COVID vaccine as though elderly men never had heart attacks in the past.

[Gilead]

It appears that the US is not happy with Indias China Russia alliance that they are throwing in this hint over to them after the ousting of Imran Khan.
Ilhan Omar Visits Disputed Pakistan Occupied Kashmir Prompting Angry Response From India - GreatGameIndia

Participants In Moderna’s mRNA Booster Shot Clinical Trials Keep Dying - GreatGameIndia

[wal]

This is starting to sound Manichean. Very 3-4th century.

On the contrary "Krishna" is one of the many faces of the pantheon of gods and goddesses in Hindustan, hardly a black and white issue in India. The country is replete with "gods" "good" and "evil". Manichean does not apply to India as good and evil are interchangeable depending which god or gods you worship. As India now under are Modi a pro Hindu nationalist who wants to de-anglicize and remove the influence of Islam from the Hindustan sub continent has become very intolerant of anything non-hindu. Gandhianism has gone. India is a land beset with castesim and modern technology, a land where they still use the bullock as a tractor, but can send a probe around Mars. A land full of bribery, but some of the best tasting food I have eaten.

[Nicholas Laureys]

Regardless, what is your justification for Russia currently holding 100K Ukrainian civilians hostage in Mariupol and not allowing them to leave the city as they continue their bombing? Both sides have their faults, but Russia is the one that continues to escalate, and for what?

I warned you, Jovan, and then right after my warning this NPC posted some taking point gibberish in response to you. I post this link not to help the NPC but to help fellow board members, many of whom I respect quite a bit, to battle misinformation amongst the people close to you, who matter
(Firsthand accounts from civvies in Marioupul about the Ukrainian [Azol] death, destruction, and violence brought upon them):
News New: People of Mariupol Ukraine at border tell what really happened - YouTube

But again, don't give up, Jovan, and others: just focus your red-pilling efforts on people closer and more important to you: there are plenty of NPCs out there waiting for the next "thing," and you will never keep up. I have two 'victories' in this latest Serf Suppression Campaign that I'm quite proud of, my best friend and my uncle: what success stories on this latest Muh Russia Bad meme do YOU have to share?

Remember, I'm probably biased, but then again where are the firsthand videos of civvies condemning brutality and murder by the Russian army, videos of Russian soldiers harassing Ukrainian grandmas and stomping on their flags, videos of killed Russian soldiers with shits in the back and surrender notes in their hands, vids of dead civilians with Ukrainian food rations under them and Ukrainian armbands, etc.?

This guy on Washington, DC radio, Chris Plante, had this saying that 'the most insidious power the media has is the power to ignore.' That power is probably on full display with both COVID and this military operation.

And I know many of you are not ready to hear this yet, but still: Putin isn't actually anymore of an asshole dictator than anyone else, and he's probably just BOTH "socially" and "fiscally" Conservative, which probably pisses off huge swaths of what passes for "Conservatives" in today's America. So when you "support" Russia against the UkrainoNazis but "condemn" Putin as a bAdGuY, your progressive enemies squeal with joy: you are essentially losing, by acquiescing to social pressure to "denounce racists," like all our brave Republican piticians do.

From here on the ground in Russia, it feels like Gonzalo Lira is absolutely right on his two points:
Marioupul will never be Ukrainian again, and this shooting & sinking if the Moskva Kreyser was a huge mess that will just get lukewarm Russians emphatically supporting Putin: my MiL, quite an apolitical lady, told me with great remorse how she'd heard of so many deaths on tht sunken ship-> there were so many young boys; it's such a tragic and useless loss!

[David.Lewis]

There is a significant rise in mortality, but it also feels like there's some exaggeration and scare tactics going on to pump fear.

For example, the rise in claims was expected at many insurance companies. Insurer's were (mostly) not caught with their pants down. It's not like they were surprised by news of a pandemic or deaths from other causes like drug abuse (insurers are very aware of the drug abuse and depression problem in America). They priced this into their mortality predictions. But, I also get the strong impression that it was unexpected at some life insurers, particularly those who maybe played it a little fast and loose with their group life insurance plans.

Overall, mortality was up about 33% in 2021, and up 20% in 2020. The 40% figure was specifically sourced from One America, and then everyone ran with it as "the number". There are 2 major lines of life insurance business in the U.S.: group and individual life insurance. This 33% figure is split between group and individual business. Some carriers do a lot of group business (One America). Other carriers have insignificant group business (Penn Mutual). Some have slanted splits which favor individual business and so would be impacted, but impacted differently than other carriers with larger group business (New York Life, which has about a 30/70 split between group and individual business). When I looked at 13 different insurers that all ran different kinds of life insurance companies, a clear pattern emerged. Except for one insurer that saw a dramatic decline in death claims (and fell well-below the average), insurers saw an increase in death claims.

The other side of this story is the false doomsday narrative that there is a mortality crisis in the industry set to wipe everyone out. To get a sense of what's really going on in the industry, ignore the smaller players who might (or might not) be taking outsized risks on their book of business, and look at the mega life insurers like Northwestern Mutual and New York Life who run fairly straightforward life insurance businesses. Northwestern is massive and represents the classic old school life insurance business. In 2021, their death claims amounted to $3.965 billion against $17.7 billion in policy benefits and increases in policy reserves. Even if you just look at premium income, they took in roughly $16 billion in premiums and paid $3.965 billion in death benefits. A similar story plays out at the smaller, more aggressive, life insurers like Penn Mutual. Mortality is not not approaching any level which would threaten these companies' solvency.

As for total mortality in the U.S., the provisional death counts don't seem to indicate anything crazy going on. Death counts from all causes are *slightly* higher in 2021 compared to 2020, not 40% higher.

I forgot to address the "unexplained" part of the deaths.

I don't know that insurers have all the "whys". It sounds like their hypothesis right now is that lots of people didn't see doctors for medical conditions when they should have. Screenings for illness not being done. Needed surgeries not being done, etc. There is also the always-looming threat of the substance abuse problem in the U.S. which is creating a mortality problem (which is more of a mortality trend instead of a singular mortality event). From the insurer's perspective (at least at this point), COVID vaccination status is completely and totally irrelevant both on an application for life insurance and also when filing a death claim. You can read into that what you wish.