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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #21541
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    • starting strength seminar april 2024
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    "Biden is a bad president " is a trap to fool some of the more moderate Democrats. 2024 is going to be a Democratic candidate who espouses the same policies. Make no mistake, these are exactly the White House policies, that the elites want. They are just disappointed, that Bidens perfume is not strong enough to offset the steaming pile of refuse that we are being handed.

  2. #21542
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darren Nelson View Post
    U.S. Grain and Fertilizer complex mid 2020 to present.

    In 2019-2020 the USDA overestimated the corn carryover by a billion bushels--about half of the normal 2B bu carryover. A large crop was expected in 2020 and the USDA planned to pull the 2020 bin buster backward into the 2019 crop to steady prices. At the time corn hovered at $3.50-$4. The 2020 Iowa Derecho forced the USDA to fold. They reduced the carryover during 9 months starting in August 2020. But the damage was done--too much corn was consumed due to the artificially low price. This is referred to as the "Great Chinese Grain Steal". China knew the USDA was publishing bad numbers and they purchased accordingly.

    In 2021 the U.S. needed a huge corn crop to clean this up and it didn't happen. Fuel has crept up since the inauguration (and corn/ethanol), then Ukraine (corn, wheat, sunflower oil exports).

    Ukraine provides 35% of the worlds wheat exports. They don't really have a carryover. Nobody will finance the type of grain storage or market carry we have in the U.S. where we routinely hold wheat for 10 years. Current World wheat stocks to use is 37%, which seems adequate, but China holds 60% of that, and they don't export wheat. It's tight for everyone else.

    Today December (new crop) corn is trading at $7.30, July wheat at $12, November beans at $15.50. Everything is double what it was in mid 2020. In fact I sold a few bushels of wheat for $4.18 in 2020

    Fertilizer in 2020 - Urea 46-0-0 $360/ton, 11-52-0 (Phosphorous) $400/ton, same for potassium chloride $400/ton

    Fertilizer--Nitrogen needs to be applied to every crop every year unless it is a legume (soybeans). A typical wheat crop will want 100-130 lbs of N, and a typical corn crop will want a lb per acre per bushel of yield, i.e. 200# for 200 bushels. Rule of thumb only, every farm, field, and crop is different.

    Phosphorous and potassium are present at varying amounts throughout the U.S. In Kansas we have high potassium soils so we don't have to supplement much, but we do have to supplement phosphorous. Farther east in the corn belt both potassium and phosphorous are applied per crop removal every year. 200# of both 11-52-0 and 0-0-60 are not unheard of.

    Last week I quoted milo (grain sorghum) fertilizer at 110-35-30-6sulfur-1zinc at just north of $1000/ton. I have a yield goal of 100 bushels/acre and it will cost $165/acre for fertilizer. My yields range from 40-140 bushels/acre. Every bushel goes to China. A corn farmer would use double this fertilizer amount.

    Fertilizer shortages are non existent in my area. Koch is the largest producer of nitrogen fertilizer in the central U.S. They base the fertilizer price on the new crop corn price, and margins are thick. Koch won't miss out on this. This is not a knock on Koch, I have never met a Koch employee that I immediately disliked.

    Phosphorous and potash are a game of chicken. The manufacturers have prices set very high and farmers are cutting back on usage (it's not as immediately punitive as cutting nitrogen). Fertilizer retailers don't want to be caught holding the bag if commodities drop 25% (likely).

    Herbicides have mostly doubled since last year. Most of our herbicides come from India and China. Farmers have been "hoarding" but this currently means taking delivery before the season starts instead of waiting until the day before application.

    Two more things. Manure--almost all manure is utilized in the U.S. We export 1/3 of our grain and either eat or feed the rest. There will never be enough manure while we export.

    Ethanol--Average U.S. corn yield is 180 bu/a and soybeans are 55 bu/a. Ethanol takes a bushel of corn and creates 1/3 Ethanol, 1/3 CO2, 1/3 Distillers Grain. Distillers grain is a substitute for soybean meal. An acre of corn grown for ethanol produces the ethanol plus more feed than an acre of soybeans. Regardless, corn ethanol's only major upside is the massive corn crop it promotes, and its associated food security.
    This is cool Darren. Summarize it for us.

  3. #21543
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    Quote Originally Posted by wal View Post
    that is why anything that restricts your lung capacity will complicate a respiratory disease
    You say this as if you had data.

  4. #21544
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yngvi View Post
    Something that has been lost from medicine over time is smoking; Before modern medicine, smoking (especially of herbs or plants other than tobacco) was used to treat various respiratory infections, parasites and other maladies.
    The advantages are:
    -Direct application of the medicine to the affected area
    -Bypass of the digestive tract to hugely increase bioavailability
    -Quick absorption into the bloodstream
    -Temporary increase in localized inflammation may be helpful in case of acute infections

    It is possible that nicotine has antiviral activity against Covid or other viruses.

    Chronic or habitual daily smoking does not confer health benefits of any kind, however.
    One concern with smoking is you put your hand to your mouth more often than a non-smoker and I can't see smokers using hand sanitizer every time they take a drag.

  5. #21545
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    I have seen most of the "Stand with Ukraine" signs where I live taken down.
    At first, every house with a BLM sign, rainbow flag or old blue-haired wench seemed to have one.
    Now, most of the houses with BLM signs don't even have it anymore.

    Maybe the experiences of the Redditors in Ukraine was enough to break their spirit and convince them they don't want any part of a white man's war in Ukraine that they can't win through cancel culture shrieking?

  6. #21546
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    In the latest development on W.H.O vs Indian Government face-off over COVID-19 deaths in India, sources hinted at vaccine lobby role in W.H.O report. The sources said that the vaccine lobby's main aim was to influence state polls by W.H.O report.
    Indian Govt Says Vaccine Lobby Tried To Influence Elections Through WHO Report - GreatGameIndia

  7. #21547
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yngvi View Post
    Something that has been lost from medicine over time is smoking; Before modern medicine, smoking (especially of herbs or plants other than tobacco) was used to treat various respiratory infections, parasites and other maladies.
    The advantages are:
    -Direct application of the medicine to the affected area
    -Bypass of the digestive tract to hugely increase bioavailability
    -Quick absorption into the bloodstream
    -Temporary increase in localized inflammation may be helpful in case of acute infections

    It is possible that nicotine has antiviral activity against Covid or other viruses.

    Chronic or habitual daily smoking does not confer health benefits of any kind, however.
    There's a few medications that are delivered via nebuliser, but smoking medicine once or twice is vastly different to smoking a pack a day for years on end.

  8. #21548
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jovan Dragisic View Post
    I don't particularly care about the abortion debate, but I would hazard a guess that 90 percent of humans born throughout our history fall into this category.
    It may be so, which is all the more reason for folks to stop having babies they don't want.

    Quote Originally Posted by Satch12879 View Post
    It doesn't need to happen in such a brusque fashion, but the issue is agency, no? How do you teach that?
    No, the issue is personal autonomy on an individual level and individual rights on the political level. The left and right both want to selectively apply rights and autonomy. The right wants gun rights but not the valid right to life and personal autonomy in the context of abortion. The left wants abortion rights, but not the valid right to self-defense.

    This came to a head over the past two years, when the same slogan "my body, my choice" was used by two different ideologies to explain the same fundamental right to life, but which each side only wanted it to apply to their chosen bias and had good-sounding surface logic defending their application of said principle and denying the other side's view (which, in principle, is the same viewpoint). These strange creatures are like the urRu and the Skeksis in the Dark Crystal.

  9. #21549
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    Quote Originally Posted by David.Lewis View Post
    It may be so, which is all the more reason for folks to stop having babies they don't want.
    No argument from me on this. Especially now, having a kid just means it will live in lockdown safety health freak society for hundreds of years.

  10. #21550
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    Quote Originally Posted by wal View Post
    One concern with smoking is you put your hand to your mouth more often than a non-smoker and I can't see smokers using hand sanitizer every time they take a drag.
    I have a stupid nail biting habit. I have no qualms about picking up food off the ground if I drop it and eating it. I never use hand sanitizer. I don't worry about any of this shit, and I almost never get sick. COVID was a mild cold for me. Maybe constantly putting their hands to their mouths is what kept smokers' immune systems stronger.

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