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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #21751
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    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Grantham View Post
    As far as tha vaccines go it IS fair to say that I am more pessimistic now than I was then. I didn't predict this rate of mutation. Coronaviruses proofread during replication and because of that I predicted a slower rate of antigenic drift. In addition, I don't think anyone predicted anything like the omicron lineage appearing out of left field like it did.
    Notional drift is only relevant to the extent that it functionally evades an immune response. So what really matters is mutation in the RBD, which is the target of vaccines. Why was it difficult to predict rapid mutation at this site? Is that why you think omicron is “out of left field?”

  2. #21752
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    Quote Originally Posted by IlPrincipeBrutto View Post
    PS
    I can provide references to the articles I quoted, if needed. I didn't want to make the text denser than it already is.
    The references we've posted every day for 2 years. He's either ignored them for 2 years because he didn't like the idea of being on the wrong side, or he didn't understand them and didn't care. Either way, you're being overly generous with your time, IPB.

  3. #21753
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    Quote Originally Posted by IlPrincipeBrutto View Post
    Sir,



    This story has been punctuated by many instances of bad data and bad science. There was the review article that concluded that HCQ was ineffective and dangerous, published in a hurry by The Lancet and found to be based on a lot (not a totality) of data that was just not there.

    The White House CoVid Task Force recommended mask mandates on the strength of a hair salon study with less than 150 clients, a third of which were not even followed properly (Scott Atlas MD relates this story in his book A Plague Upon Our House).

    A communication based on one single case (not followed properly either) suggested asymptomatic transmission was possible and important, and changed overnight the status of every man on earth from "healthy, until proven sick", to "Sick, unless testing negative".

    Doctors refused to see their patients.
    Doctors who proposed and offered treatment alternative to the prevailing guidelines were hunted down, hounded, threatened to be struck out. Dissenting voices were ridiculed, silenced, treated as lunatics and a-scientific. Even people like Luc Montagnier were shouted down and accused of senility.
    Having doubts was not possible; this is the antithesis of what the scientific method stands for.

    Most people can't debate the specific merits of most of the material related to CoVid; but everyone can recognise methodological errors as gross as those perpetrated during this story. I think an enormous damage was done to Science in general, and medicine in particular, by the way a part of the medical profession conducted itself. Whether this was by design, incompetence or other reasons, it's by now immaterial; the damage has been done, and mending it will take a very long time. And let me be clear; the fault lies on one side only, the one that was supposed to provide reasoned expertise, and didn't.

    I think, therefore, you can't really blame people on this board for not trusting what they are told, and thinking data is manipulated; there have been too many instances of bad science in this story, all of them, *crucially*, going in the same, one direction. Genuine errors should fall either side of the dividing line in a debate; when they all aggregate on one side, I think it's more than legitimate to suspect that something is crooked.

    It this correct? Probably not entirely. But, imho, you seem to fail to appreciate how badly your profession has behaved during the CoVid crisis in the eye of a lot of people, and how bit the effort is going to be to convince them; once bitten, twice shy, times one hundred in this case.

    IPB


    PS
    I can provide references to the articles I quoted, if needed. I didn't want to make the text denser than it already is.
    Let's not forget that entire countries were shut down and people ( whole families) were forced to stay in their house, not being allowed to travel more then 100 meters from their house, as well as all the other bullshit lockdown and masking rules.
    None of these interventions worked and only made things worse.
    Many of these policies were based on the fallacy and LIE if asymptomatic spread.

  4. #21754
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    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Grantham View Post
    As far as tha vaccines go it IS fair to say that I am more pessimistic now than I was then. I didn't predict this rate of mutation. Coronaviruses proofread during replication and because of that I predicted a slower rate of antigenic drift. In addition, I don't think anyone predicted anything like the omicron lineage appearing out of left field like it did.
    This is horse shit and you know it. Honest doctors and researchers were saying for years now that the normal course of a respiratory virus is for it to get less virulent over time. Pull up Dr. John Campbell on youtube - he has been making this exact prediction for years. You literally refused to listen to reason and smeared anyone who made a point contrary to yours (including Campbell, of course).

    Again, to reiterate, this did not "come out of left field." IT WAS KNOWN THAT FROM THE BEGINNING THAT THIS IS THE NORMAL COURSE OF A VIRUS OF THIS NATURE.

    Knowing that 99%+ of healthy young folks recover from this shit just fine it would have made more sense to let them all gain herd immunity to help protect the sick, fat and elderly.

    I think that you have a pathogenic need to never admit when you were wrong and where you can do better.

    Wonder how can I be any more clear on this point?

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  6. #21756
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    John and IPB. I appreciate the responses. Some good points in there to be sure.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shiva Kaul View Post
    Notional drift is only relevant to the extent that it functionally evades an immune response. So what really matters is mutation in the RBD, which is the target of vaccines. Why was it difficult to predict rapid mutation at this site? Is that why you think omicron is “out of left field?”
    The vaccines are directed against more than just the receptor binding domain of spike and protection does not depend exclusively on the RBD. That mutation occured was not unexpected. The rate at which mutation occurred was unexpected. Coronaviruses make fewer mistakes during replication than viruses like influenza do. That this virus is drifting faster than seasonal influenza virus does is unexpected.
    The omicron lineage emerged in November of 2021 with far more mutations than any variant seen prior to that time. It is genetically more closely related to viruses that circulated in October of 2020 than it is to viruses that circulated in late 2021. THAT is what makes the omicron lineage out of left field.

    Quote Originally Posted by GioFerrante View Post
    This is horse shit and you know it. Honest doctors and researchers were saying for years now that the normal course of a respiratory virus is for it to get less virulent over time. Pull up Dr. John Campbell on youtube - he has been making this exact prediction for years. You literally refused to listen to reason and smeared anyone who made a point contrary to yours (including Campbell, of course).

    Again, to reiterate, this did not "come out of left field." IT WAS KNOWN THAT FROM THE BEGINNING THAT THIS IS THE NORMAL COURSE OF A VIRUS OF THIS NATURE.

    Knowing that 99%+ of healthy young folks recover from this shit just fine it would have made more sense to let them all gain herd immunity to help protect the sick, fat and elderly.

    I think that you have a pathogenic need to never admit when you were wrong and where you can do better.

    Wonder how can I be any more clear on this point?
    This is a common misconception among many people including 'honest doctors and researchers'. Transmission is selected for by natural selection not the ability to cause disease (or a lack thereof). Especially when transmission occurs far before severe disease, the severity of that disease does not factor in to natural selection. It appears to have happened for influenza in the 1920s, but there are other examples where it has not happened (eg measles and smallpox).

  7. #21757
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    First Ever NIH/NIND Study on Vaccine Caused Neurological Injuries (Preprint) - YouTube
    Dr Been interviews one of the trial patients in this study who to this day has serious side effects from her vaccine. The study however, says that she has fully recovered after treatment.
    For some reason I believe her over a fraudulent study, or at least a study with a fraudulent claim.
    And again, this study will be codified in the Canon of "literature".
    Seriously, how is anyone ever to rely on anything that comes out from these organizations.

  8. #21758
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    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Grantham View Post
    The vaccines are directed against more than just the receptor binding domain of spike and protection does not depend exclusively on the RBD.
    You are quantitatively incorrect. The efficacy of vaccines is almost entirely based on the RBD, as compared to natural immunity.

    The omicron lineage emerged in November of 2021 with far more mutations than any variant seen prior to that time. It is genetically more closely related to viruses that circulated in October of 2020 than it is to viruses that circulated in late 2021. THAT is what makes the omicron lineage out of left field.
    You previously cited this paper, which again focuses on the more pertinent issue: the number of mutations in the RBD.

    In retrospect, do you think that focused targeting of the RBD wasn’t a robust strategy?

  9. #21759
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    Quote Originally Posted by GioFerrante View Post
    This is horse shit and you know it. Honest doctors and researchers were saying for years now that the normal course of a respiratory virus is for it to get less virulent over time.....
    Again, to reiterate, this did not "come out of left field." IT WAS KNOWN THAT FROM THE BEGINNING THAT THIS IS THE NORMAL COURSE OF A VIRUS OF THIS NATURE.
    McCullough explains this process through the phenomenon of Muller’s ratchet.
    https://www.americaoutloud.com/using...cines-on-kids/

  10. #21760
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    Quote Originally Posted by IlPrincipeBrutto View Post
    I think an enormous damage was done to Science in general, and medicine in particular, by the way a part of the medical profession conducted itself. Whether this was by design, incompetence or other reasons, it's by now immaterial; the damage has been done, and mending it will take a very long time. And let me be clear; the fault lies on one side only, the one that was supposed to provide reasoned expertise, and didn't.
    I hear this a lot, but I strongly disagree. Science and medicine, like all the other fields, are full of quacks, bullies and cowards. If anything, the lockdown sudden death years may have opened the eyes of some people to this truth, but I actually doubt it is very many.

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