COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

[lazygun37]

From the only good data set we've got: Diamond Princess Mysteries | Watts Up With That?

From a previous post:

[There is] a peer-reviewed article looking in detail on the outbreak on this ship. Their modelling shows that the interventions that were taken appear to have prevented the infection rate from reaching about 80% by Feb 19. The following is from the abstract: "On 3 February, 2020, an outbreak of COVID-19 on cruise ship Diamond Princess was reported with 10 initial cases, following an index case on board around 21-25 January. By 4 February, public health measures such as removal and isolation of ill passengers and quarantine of non-ill passengers were implemented. By 20 February, 619 of 3,700 passengers and crew (17%) were tested positive. ... The basic reproduction rate was initially 4 times higher on-board compared to the in the epicentre in Wuhan, but the countermeasures lowered it substantially. ... [W]e estimated that without any interventions within the time period of 21 January to 19 February, 2920 out of the 3700 (79%) would have been infected. Isolation and quarantine therefore prevented 2307 cases. ... [A]n early evacuation of all passengers on 3 February would have been associated with 76 infected persons in their incubation time." [Rocklöv, Sjödin & Wilder-Smith 2020, Journal of Travel Medicine]

[IlPrincipeBrutto]

Culturally, economically, and politically, China and Italy are different than Missouri every year.

That's true, but it's not what was asked.

For sure, but are the conditions in China and Italy different this year vs previous years?

China and Italy are the same every year. And yet, this year their health systems got overwhelmed.

So there must be a difference between the seasonal flu they get every year, and the one they got this year. If it's not the currently talked about strain of CoVid, then it must be something else that we haven't identified yet. Regardless, its effect are clearly different form those of a normal seasonal flu.

IPB

For sure, but are the conditions in China and Italy different this year vs previous years? Is there a better explanation than this virus being significantly more dangerous than a typical strain of flu?

[IlPrincipeBrutto]

Listening today NPR. One of the guest speakers responded to a question about Italy. In summery: Oldest population in the world, high rate of smokers, until recently no sense of social distancing, poor medical system.

Was that Amanda Prestigiacomo by any chance?
Check for age of population.
Smoke: Koreans can't be smoking less, and their trajectory has been different.
Dutch are on the same trajectory as Italy, and their social habits are quite different.
As for the health system, it's been underfunded for at least ten years, thanks to austerity-driven economic policies. The number of ICU beds has been cut in almost half, and this is the single biggest factor (together with age) that has driven the death count.

Also; there might be differences in the way Italy is recording cause of death; if CoVId is present, together with other conditions, the cause of death will probably be counted as CoVid. In other countries (notably Germany, until recently an outlier in terms of death percentage), the same death would probably be registered under one of the other conditions.

IPB

[Suwannee Dave]

From the only good data set we've got: Diamond Princess Mysteries | Watts Up With That?

Haven't you heard? Boomers are supposed to live forever.

[Gerald Boggs]

Was that Amanda Prestigiacomo by any chance? IPB

Don't recall who asked the question, but the person who answered was male and I believe was one of several medical professionals answering general questions about the virus.

[Mark Rippetoe]

From a previous post:

[W]e estimated that without any interventions within the time period of 21 January to 19 February, 2920 out of the 3700 (79%) would have been infected.

Maybe they estimated wrong. But if it saves the life of one person, the destruction of the economy was worth it. After all, People Before Profits.

[wiigelec]

[W]e estimated that without any interventions within the time period of 21 January to 19 February, 2920 out of the 3700 (79%) would have been infected.

Using current data points, progression rates and sophisticated computer modeling I estimate by 2025 my powerlifting total will be #2500...

[muntz]

That is why I create my own news, then I can be certain that the facts are true. You definitely should try it.

On a unrelated note, did you know the coronavirus does not exist? People are panicking for nothing. You literally have a better chance of winning the lottery than dying from corona.

Seeing as how the government is not very good at controlling things, I think their involvement should be minimal. They can spend a lot of money on research and vaccine development if they want to, but they are quite incompetent at the most basic of tasks, as the CDC has demonstrated recently. If everybody is going to be exposed to this disease anyway, and it seems now that the lethality has been exaggerated, I suggest that we look at the bigger picture here and get this over with ASAP, especially considering that the economic ramifications of World Economic Collapse may well ultimately be responsible for more dead people than COVID19 itself.



But Ohio already won yesterday.

I love ya Rip. Starting Strength changed my life. But you are completely fucking wrong about all of this. It's bad and gonna get a lot worse. Period. I'm not gonna be the guy in 2 months to say I told you so, but our hospitals will be overrun. We don't have the equipment. Many people will die. Many will die because we dont have masks or respirators.

[Mark Rippetoe]

Shoq was a troll, and that was the post that got him shitcanned. I should have deleted it, but it's too late now. Hell, I'll delete it anyway.

And I may be wrong, and you may be wrong. The good news is that it won't take until Thanksgiving to know.

[Ramus]

I like this guy with his fancy accent and logical reasoning and I want to believe this message because I’ve felt all along that this shit is overhyped.

Friends are getting mad at me because I don’t take the virus seriously and I think the economic impact from the hype is far more dangerous.

One question: how does this explain the situation in Italy, for example? Are the reports of hospitals being overrun and unimaginable battlefield triage fake or blown out of proportion?

Give me a good rebuttal to use.

Coronavirus: Iss, in Italia i decessi accertati finora per causa del Covid-19 sono solo due | Agenzia Nova Some information from Italy's Higher Institute of Health. It's written in Italian but Google Translate did a pretty good job on it.