COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

[spacediver]

I recommend watching this report from Italy. Fucking terrifying.

Coronavirus: Italy's hardest-hit city wants you to see how COVID-19 is affecting its hospitals | World News | Sky News

[Culican]

Democracies’ Covid-19 cures could be worse than the disease

"Who are influencing media and government? A handful of professional epidemiologists who have become talking heads in global media are forecasting 70-80% infection rates. These data points are being regurgitated by leaders such as Germany’s Angela Merkel.

But not only do we know now that some models for prior pandemics were overstated, some influencers are positing absolute worst-case scenarios. "

"And “economic carnage” is real. It means income losses, redundancies, bankruptcies, business closures, poverty, shattered hopes and related traumas. And recessions are deadly.

A 2018 study by the National Academy of Science of the USA found stresses from the 2008 recession literally lifted US blood pressure. A 2016 Lancet study found some half a million cancer deaths worldwide were linked to the same recession. A study from Oxford found more than 10,000 suicides were linked to the recession."

Democracies’ Covid-19 cures could be worse than the disease - Asia Times

[tallison]

Okay, Lazygun. I have your attention. We're all going to die if we continue to interact with each other. You keep talking about COVID19, and I'm talking about fear and the ensuing panic, and the subsequent economic collapse we are beginning to see today. Both are bad, but I'm saying that the latter is worse than the former.

Finally, we get to the heart of this dispute. In a situation drenched in uncertainty about the basic data needed to make confident predictions and with experts from both ends of the political spectrum (some of whom you have gone out of your way to praise for being good thinkers) calling for drastic, economically destructive action, under the circumstances, you, Mr. Rippetoe, survey it all and are not convinced. "People die, so what? It's not worth the economic destruction or other downstream damage that will be caused by these measures to implement them."

So, what are the numbers that would change your conclusion? What rate of transmission and fatality would tip the scale in favor of paying A LOT to slow this thing down as much as possible? What concurrent number of cases in need of hospitalization vs capacity of the medical system?

I'm just really curious if such numbers exist, or if your opposition to drastically adjusting your behavior in conformity with a legal edict isn't just root level and far more emotional than rational as it seems to be with many who post on these boards.

[David Masini]

Since a comparison between Italy and Japan has been made, let me piss off the Italians.
The Japanese bath every day, the Italians don't. As a soldier stationed in Europe, this is one of those things we're warned about, and told not to take offense if the people you meet stink. Because bathing is a sometimes/maybe weekly thing. If the protections against the CV is connected to washing, how much effect has the hygiene standards of Italy played in their rates of infection?

But what the fuck are you talking about? You can find people who don't take a shower every day in every country, yours included. And, since you don't have our bidet, (it is that alien thing that is useful to wash your genitals and your ass) or maybe it is just arrived over there, I should say the same since I don't think you take a shower every time you take a shit.
I can not believe you said so. I tried really hard not to offend you..but Christ what a moron.

[Mark Rippetoe]

It's possible I've already had it in November. I can't get ahold of DHEC or the CDC to see if they would be willing to do a draw to check for antibodies. And to be entirely fair, Rip, the National Guard is necessary to enforce anything in Baltimore. Hell, they might have to send in the Marines.

Good point about Baltimore. Someone please explain China to Spacediver.

[tallison]

Here's a chance for you to take the measure of a man at least one of the articles you recommended sideways slandered. Christen Drosten has been a voice of reason in the midst of this recent crisis -- here you can read his thoughts in his own words (granted quoted by a journalist, but there has been no complaining from the source, to date):

Christian Drosten: "We Have To Bring Down the Number of Cases Now. Otherwise We Won't Be Able To Handle It" | ZEIT ONLINE

(It's in English and very current about the Covid-19 outbreak. If you asked me what voices I trust in this crisis, this is certainly one. Nobody is beyond making mistakes, but he's the kind of guy you want to have trying to make sense of things at times like these, in my estimation.)

*And, by the way, in case you suspect that Herr Drosten was being especially careful or was especially groomed for this interview: this is how he has expressed himself from the beginning when talking about this evolving crisis -- one has to be careful of faked sincerity -- all the signs here point toward his being the real thing.

[Yngvi]

This thread now has about 15 pages of posts that essentially say: You cannot and should not think for yourself. You must have faith in the doctrine of your betters; They love you, keep you safe and know how best you should live your life.

Is this a religious cult?

[Mark Rippetoe]

Instead of engaging with our German friend, I'll just drop this here. I haven't read it all yet, and it is long, but it beats the ravings of people who think the end of the goddamn world is necessary to save the goddamn world.

Evidence over hysteria — COVID-19 - Six Four Six Nine - Medium

And this is necessary to consider:

Quantifying the Coming Recession - The Atlantic

[abduality]

I get the distinct impression that you are both quite young and haven’t spent enough time studying history

Apologies spacediver I misattributed your statement to lazygun37, though I stand by the point that using manufactured data to sow panic and economic ruin is not even remotely unheard of...

I dont think anyone is denying the existence of covid19, or that people have it and are seeking medical care. The sudden increase in demand is overwhelming hospitals, just like it would if everyone with flu sought medical care.

The question is just how bad is it? At one extreme its just like flu, at another 80% will get it and 3-8% of those will die.

Sure, I agree with that.

However, for those against the draconian quarantine measures, the reason to take them seriously is that without quarantines in place, C19 will spread enough to cause exponential rise in hospital beds, choking our ability to care for patients.

I think this is what lazygun and spacediver are driving at.

The mortality may not be bad, but the demand on healthcare will certainly be WAY over what they can handle. And then you don't have healthcare for anyone.

[Mark Rippetoe]

Sorry, fucked this up. This is actually Itomo posting:

1: Most of the world governments believe the data from China is reasonably accurate. The WHO conducted a joint in depth joint data gathering mission which included people from all parts of the world. You can read the report here.

This is an appeal to authority. The governments involved in calling the shots on this thing care first and foremost about their own jobs. Their jobs are to get elected. I don't fault them for it, but that's why I am not in politics. I would do the same thing if I were in their situation.

2: The exponential rise in cases is being seen around the globe.

An appeal to authority. Mass testing will increase the number of cases being reported. When someone yells fire in a crowded building an exponentially increasing number of people start to exit the space.

3: Italy is suffering tremendously. The covid-19 death toll in italy for yesterday alone was 627. Just pause and think about that. It seems that the UK is not far behind.

An appeal to an abstract. I don't know any of those people and I don't care about them in any meaningful way. I care about ~150 people and so do you. If you think otherwise you are lying to yourself.

Italy has a centrally planned healthcare system. It is designed to give people a false sense of security about their health. It is a political tool used by politicians to secure votes. A hospital and healthcare system operating in a free market would have assessed the risks involved and prepared accordingly.

All these facts make it more likely that the second hypothesis is true.

Can you think of a compelling reason why this data is untrustworthy? And you need to do better than to lazily proclaim that China is untrustworthy and an enemy. You must come up with some scenario that explains how the above 3 facts are compatible with your proposed scenario.

The issue of the data has been discussed ad nauseum. I am no longer writing or replying to any of this to convince you. You have identified yourself as an enemy. My purpose is to convince others that we are currently in a theater where someone has yelled fire. We have days to convince people that there is no fire, otherwise a stampede is going to start to break things in a very bad way.

This thread now has about 15 pages of posts that essentially say: You cannot and should not think for yourself. You must have faith in the doctrine of your betters; They love you, keep you safe and know how best you should live your life.

Is this a religious cult?

This is exactly the issue.

Read more history. Your "betters" do not care about you.