Originally Posted by
lazygun37
Did you even look at the plot of the mortality data that you and Mark keep invoking?
I agree. If you tell me who that writer is I will tell them to stop. In the unlikely event you are referring to me, it would be great if you could show me where I've ignored other countries or implied that Italy's raw CFR is typical.
Again, I agree. And I would love to have *that* discussion with you, because it's an important one. They've been able to do this because their initial response was drastic and fast, with loads of early testing. As a result, they have been able to use contact tracing far more effectively. This should give us hope that, if we can suppress the outbreak, we don't have to have restrictions in place forever. But first we have to suppress it, and we're already way beyond the numbers you can contact trace.
As I keep saying to Mark, I don't know where you get the idea that the two are mutually exclusive. If COVID-19 ends being even half as bad as epidemiologists and doctors think it could be (if we don't do more than we're doing right now), then how on Earth are you going to have a functioning economy?
I don't have to copy and past out of a Stats 101 textbook, because I literally teach stats and use it in my research. Could you at least admit that you haven't read a Stats 101 textbook and therefore shouldn't really talk about statistics like CFR?