COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

[mpalios]

I have a very close friend who has MS. He's high risk. 40yo with 3 kids and a wife. They self quarantined starting about a week ago and will continue for at least 2 more weeks. He took the advice of his specialist (Dr). Wish more would/could do this.

AND there's probably a place for some guidelines to help folks not get sick. But I don't know where that line is.

They're doing it for you own good. To keep you safe. Since you are not capable of this yourself. Trust them. You don't really need to work, after all. There is nothing more important than safety.

[abduality]

They're doing it for you own good. To keep you safe. Since you are not capable of this yourself. Trust them. You don't really need to work, after all. There is nothing more important than safety.

Rip, I actually agree with you on the overall mortality (will be in the 0.1 - 1% range; which is just a fact of life). I agree with you that the public at large is irrationally panicked about dying FROM C19.

However, what do you think about the claims that IF left uncontrolled, even at 20% prevalence, C19 it will lead to more hospitalizations and ICU demand than we have in this country. What do you think about the indirect effects on the healthcare SYSTEM?

[Mark Le Comte]

Well, in my Country:
Population 5 million
100 cases
no fatalities (yet)

We are shutting down all non-essential businesses for 4 weeks then re-assessing. People to stay at home, no gatherings etc, working from home if possible but already some increasing redundancy numbers. Supermarkets, gas stations, hospitals/GPs pharmacies remain open.

[ltomo]

Also keep in mind that China is still a somewhat totalitarian state, which means they have much greater direct control over the population. When the CCP orders everyone to stay home, nobody fucking leaves the house. Newsome can only dream of wielding this kind of power.

The Chinese government is completely totalitarian. I lived there for a year. When I taught my students I was forbidden from ever discussing Tiananmen Square, Tibet, or Taiwan. The three T's. Gatherings beyond a small number are illegal without approval. People text and email using codewords because they know their communications are watched. They routinely lock up their own people for speaking out against them. I couldn't watch the Hobbit until it had been out for months because it had to be approved by a censorship board.

[markus1]

Did you even look at the plot of the mortality data that you and Mark keep invoking?


I agree. If you tell me who that writer is I will tell them to stop. In the unlikely event you are referring to me, it would be great if you could show me where I've ignored other countries or implied that Italy's raw CFR is typical.


Again, I agree. And I would love to have *that* discussion with you, because it's an important one. They've been able to do this because their initial response was drastic and fast, with loads of early testing. As a result, they have been able to use contact tracing far more effectively. This should give us hope that, if we can suppress the outbreak, we don't have to have restrictions in place forever. But first we have to suppress it, and we're already way beyond the numbers you can contact trace.


As I keep saying to Mark, I don't know where you get the idea that the two are mutually exclusive. If COVID-19 ends being even half as bad as epidemiologists and doctors think it could be (if we don't do more than we're doing right now), then how on Earth are you going to have a functioning economy?


I don't have to copy and past out of a Stats 101 textbook, because I literally teach stats and use it in my research. Could you at least admit that you haven't read a Stats 101 textbook and therefore shouldn't really talk about statistics like CFR?

If we are talking statistics then seems to me the economy would function just fine with covid. It's appears to be killing about 1% of those infected and a significant proportion of those are old, already sick, and therefore clearly not of working age. What is the % death rate in the population between 18 and 65 seems more relevant in understanding the impact to the economy. Putting the working population out of work and too afraid to leave their houses sounds like a 3rd world war torn country to me.

[Noah Ebner]

Is this being considered? The most vulnerable, of course, are the elderly with pre existing conditions. Anyone know how this works and what the time frames are for immune systems to hibernate?

I feel fairly confident in speaking on behalf of the CDC on this one by saying, no, it absolutely has not been considered.

Consider the following: I can think of few better ways to spread this virus than the plan of 'attack' that they've implemented in California. Everything is closed except for places where few people congregate (restaurants, convenience stores, etc) and supermarkets. I was at the usually very quiet supermarket today in the very sleepy hamlet that I live in and the place was fucking packed. 10 deep at 12 registers and people in every aisle. Studies from Italy concluded that the virus was most virulent in exactly these kinds of conditions. If you're a virus, supermarkets in CA are your wet dream; they have become the prime vector for viral virulency.

So clearly the folks in charge either cannot consider, or do not care to consider, their way out of a wet paper bag. My guess would be the latter. Give the very low morbidity and extremely low mortality rates of COVID19, I'm guessing politicians are only considering what will get them re-elected in a few months when they make these sorts of stupidly near-sighted decisions. What they probably also failed to consider when they panic canceled the whole world is that the economic effects of this political theater will last far longer than November...

[Mark Rippetoe]

Rip, I actually agree with you on the overall mortality (will be in the 0.1 - 1% range; which is just a fact of life). I agree with you that the public at large is irrationally panicked about dying FROM C19.

However, what do you think about the claims that IF left uncontrolled, even at 20% prevalence, C19 it will lead to more hospitalizations and ICU demand than we have in this country. What do you think about the indirect effects on the healthcare SYSTEM?

I think the healthcare system is a single piece of the economic puzzle, along with the energy sector, food, housing, and the services industries. I think it's spectacularly stupid to consider it by itself, as though no other part of the economy is worthy of consideration, or interacts with healthcare. I think the indirect effects of a pandemic on the healthcare system will be dwarfed by the direct effects on the rest of the economy, if it's handled the way these morons are doing it now, in a shameless attempt to cover their own miserable asses from criticism. I think it will be tough on the sick anyway, and will be made incalculably tougher if their families are destitute and they themselves don't have a job or a life to go back to after they heal up. There is talk of a 25% drop in GDP this quarter. Do you have any idea what this means??? This may well be like 28 Days Later without the fast zombies.

And to the nutless political scum and their partners in the media that are letting this happen to us: You will regret this for the rest of your lives.

[Shiva Kaul]

In NYC, doctors expect active cases to peak in about 3 weeks. It took roughly the same duration in Hubei province, after lockdown was implemented. In Hong Kong (since you don't trust mainland China's reporting), restaurants and bars are filling up again.

The bitter pill, by these estimates, is about a month of lockdown - a single billing period for a gym. This is bad news, but it is not economic depression.

[Mark Rippetoe]

The bitter pill, by these estimates, is about a month of lockdown - a single billing period for a gym. This is bad news, but it is not economic depression.

This is a spectacularly stupid comment. You know nothing about business and nothing about people. This post will be here quite a while. Come back to it next month, next year, in 5 years, and feel the regret and embarrassment.

[Soule]

As I keep saying to Mark, I don't know where you get the idea that the two are mutually exclusive. If COVID-19 ends being even half as bad as epidemiologists and doctors think it could be (if we don't do more than we're doing right now), then how on Earth are you going to have a functioning economy?

Can you explain why you think that letting this thing run it’s course while practicing social distancing protocols and letting businesses operate would have nearly the same detrimental effect on our economy as this current lockdown clusterfuck?

You’ve yet to present a convincing argument there. I assume you are being paid full salary still.