COVID19 Factors We Should Consider COVID19 Factors We Should Consider - Page 68

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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider

  1. #671
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    • wichita falls texas june seminar date
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    He probably means Lifetime Fitness. Huge commercial gyms. Maybe owned by that parent company?
    Unrelated to the tv network. Founded in ‘91 i believe by Bahram Akradi. They usually build these huge clubs, but I’m fortunate enough to work in one of their newly acquired unique clubs in downtown austin, formerly known as “Pure Austin”

    My managers love your shit, Rip. I think you’d be shocked at how many members you would see low bar back squatting and pressing in this corporate gym!

  2. #672
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    I think you guys are severely underestimating the scope of the economic meltdown that is coming our way. You're focusing on early projections of GDP drop that various analysts have essentially pulled out of their asses. It is my amateur estimate that they are either doing it out of ignorance, at least the stupid ones, and maybe some of them are throwing up smoke so that their parent companies can dump some of their market positions. Check this out.

    The US GDP is close to 20 trillion dollars. As of now, the US has more than 130 trillion dollars in unfunded liabilities. Fiscal imbalances, if you will, this is basically the cost of healthcare and pension liabilities that are in the pay as you go scheme. The government does not have money to pay for any amount of this, and is hoping that future growth, coupled with monetary and fiscal policies will somehow make up for this unrealistic lack of money. I'm too lazy to look up current numbers for EU member states, but the last I remember, from three or four years ago, it varied from member state to member state, but unfunded liabilities ranged between 250 and 1500 percent of GDP. This is really similar to the savings accounts of people all over the West who are also burdened with mortgages, they are supposed to have some savings and every financial planner appearing on Oprah will tell them they need to save money, but nobody really knows how one is supposed to save money with a dozen credit cards, a mortgage and yearly holidays. Now they don't even have a job anymore!

    As far as monetary and fiscal policies are concerned, many European central banks and EU member states have been running the completely novel experiment of printing money and issuing bonds with negative interest rates. Japan is doing the same thing. As the market gurus say, this may be a good or bad thing, but there isn't enough data to give an estimate, kinda like the Covid19 CFR (I'm actually laughing out loud now). The US Federal Funds rate fares a little better, 1.75 as of now, but just watch it decline in the next few weeks. Now how are these fiscal stimuli that everybody is pulling supposed to be funded? Well, of course, the central banks are gonna be printing money and buying government bonds, since this has proven to be so effective in the past decade, just watch the spectacular growth we have seen.Do the math on what this does to interest rates and currency valuations. Additionally, the EU is suspending an article from the Treaty on the functioning of the EU that prohibits member states from directly subsidising their industries, so it's gonna be a free-for-all spending spree to match the trillions of dollars the US is ready to throw into the pot. The only problem is, there is nobody who can pay for the whole thing, since all the "ammo" (central bankers love this word) is gone, you can't even bill it to a client since the clients (the taxpayers, amirite) are getting summarily fired.

    This macroeconomic shit concerns all of us, because the only reason we thought we had any money up until two weeks ago was because of this central banker game of mirrors. What you have as a direct result of this is that asset prices in the West have shot up to spectacular levels, from real estate to cars to equities, which have all been financed with low interest loans, which we all thought were cool due to the low interest. So, no, business closures are pretty much a non-issue at this point, the functioning capitalist economies were dead in the water the second the virus spread from China. Everything we thought we owned was gonna be worth as much as the rolls of toilet paper people are stacking the as soon the first country defaulted on its loans. As far as our friends from China are concerned, they are running the greatest social experiment of all time, moving a billion people from the countryside to newly constructed monster cities. The premise is simple, they are gonna be paid in peanuts to provide cheap labor for Western companies moving its supply chain to countries where the pesky workers are happy to work for peanuts, because it beats starving to death when state bureaucrats are running agricultural production. The only problem is, they need an annual growth in GDP in the range of six to ten percent for the whole thing to work, and they have been conducting some hard core currency engineering to achieve it. It was working out really well, low currency makes exports even cheaper, and you can always count on good old greed, but since the monetary Ponzi scheme in the West is going bust, that target is proving to be really hard to hit, and these goddamn peanuts are getting ridiculously expensive right now. God only know what the Committee will come up with now, maybe decree a return to pastoral life? We need a Goldman Sachs guy to predict this, it is way beyond my pay grade.

    So we may as well keep the lockdowns in place, because a) this will only make everything move faster; and b) we actually want as many of the generation that presided over this humongous clusterfuck to stay alive long enough to see the effects of their labor on their progeny. I suggest you make peace with all the people you wronged, not because it will help you much in this life, they are gonna be as poor as you, but the only sensible thing to worry about now is karma and future reincarnations. I'm trying to get on Vishnu's good side and have him transport me to some year before paper was invented.

  3. #673
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    Quote Originally Posted by spacediver View Post
    I know this is directed at lazygun, but a lot of your posts cause a similar reaction in my own mind. You seem to be discounting the fact that a pandemic isn't just about people getting sick and dying, but that it can paralyze an economy without any government coercion.
    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    I do? Have you lost your mind? Every post I've made has been about the economy being paralyzed. It's my primary concern, whether the government has anything to do with it or not. Either you or I have apparently dropped acid.
    Fair enough. I guess the discussion boils down to the following:

    1) Is the healthcare system at great risk of being overwhelmed?
    2) If it is, how much social distancing is reasonable (i.e. at what point do you get marginal returns on healthcare at ever greater costs to economy)?
    3) Should social distancing be enforced, or should it be voluntary?

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM View Post
    The government of Sweden, many people's idea of a sensible and compassionate country, has announced they do not intend to implement a lockdown, are permitting mass gatherings, and are encouraging businesses to remain open:

    Coronavirus in Sweden: why the largest country without any lockdown measures thinks its approach will pay off
    This is interesting. I hope there are lessons to be learned, either way.

  4. #674
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrunoLawerence View Post
    I am saying look after your fellow man as well as yourself. You are saying "fuck him as long as i'm good".
    Complete inversion. Go somewhere else if you're going to lie.

    We'll see who shows up to help if the monopolies and regulations are broken and people with knowledge and skills aren't prevented from assisting. I fully expect more to start running away, not just those who left assisted living folks to die in Spain or those who've abandoned their posts in New York hospitals and forced extra shifts on remaining staff. How many of those hiding are going to suddenly step up and put themselves at risk?

    Sometimes people will surprise you, but those who're living fragmented lives, isolated among millions and without real community, and with not even the foresight to have basic preparations in place, aren't likely candidates. It's going to be those who are already out there, who've made it a habit their entire lives, who have the courage and will to continue on. Same as always.

  5. #675
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    HCWs at an NYC hospital are now wearing https://nypost.com/2020/03/25/worker-at-nyc-hospital-where-nurses-wear-trash-bags-as-protection-dies-from-coronavirus/”]trash bags as PPE[/url], because there are zero gowns left. At a nearby hospital, the death of a colleague is blamed on the lack of supplies. They say, “the hospital should be held responsible.”

    Quote Originally Posted by Gerald Boggs View Post
    From the cynical, jaded point of view of my mind, there is no shortage. The hospitals have all the equipment they decided to have on hand and in stock.
    Take whatever philosophical stance you want on the shortage. Hell, you can blame Obama - his administration did not replenish the national stockpile that dwindled following the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Just donÂ’t pretend it doesnÂ’t exist.

    Good news: 39 million N95s were unearthed from distribution channels. That is more than double the amount in the national stockpile, and equivalent to roughly 1 month of 3MÂ’s production. ItÂ’s not nearly enough to cover the shortfall, but itÂ’s a start.

  6. #676
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    The economic hardships will certainly as hell not be temporary. Only a fool looks at 3.28 million unemployment claims in one week and thinks that this is temporary. I would tell you that if you're afraid to go to work in your hospital, get a better job -- but you can't, because of the economic hardships your fear has produced, and it will be quite some time before you can. Meanwhile, wash your hands.
    You've gotta quit doing this, Rip. We've all heard how valuable those beds in the ICU are--last thing we need filling up those precious few slots are burn victims.

  7. #677
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buddy Rich View Post
    Did you hear about the 80,000 Deaths in America? No, I'm not talking about the fear porn headline on Drudge. I'm talking about the 80,000 people who died from the flu in 2017. Where were the Andrew Cuomo's, Bill Deblasio's, CNN's, and MSNBC's then? Why were none of them promoting the total collapse of the American economy because a virus was about to kill 80,000 Americans? Where were the screams for PPE, ventilators and activation of the Military to get control of this angel of death?

    Two answers rise to the top. We had the savior of the world ready to sell in the form of flu shot 2017. Worked real great, right? Couldn't sacrifice that money even though the flu is novel every single year. It wasn't a big election year either. Can't let Trump win again and have Congress go full Republican. Right? Overwhelming rejection of the radical policies pushed by Democrats and RINO's was going to be a reality.

    Better burn the whole country down with corona fear to maintain swamp power instead, right? But swamp power and their useful idiots don't exist, right? Congratulations useful idiots. Just with the Restaurant industry shutdown alone, you killed an estimated $899 BILLION in projected 2020 sales. Nice job.

    You got scared because they told you there was no vaccine and you let them ruin the lives of millions in your own country. Nice job. I continue to ignore everything they tell me I should do. I go to work. I talk to people. I visit every store you and your rulers have allowed to be open. I'm not going to conform to your insanity. Fuck the swamp and their useful idiots. Go to work as you were born to do.
    Or, put another way, this is the punishment we get for not electing Lady Clinton. I am truly astounded by the counting sheep in this thread. Here I thought the Serta mattress company had all of them herded in and gathered up for shearing.

  8. #678
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    Quote Originally Posted by stef View Post
    Sometimes people will surprise you, but those who're living fragmented lives, isolated among millions and without real community, and with not even the foresight to have basic preparations in place, aren't likely candidates. It's going to be those who are already out there, who've made it a habit their entire lives, who have the courage and will to continue on. Same as always.
    Regardless of where you lie on this thread, this is a poignant thought.

  9. #679
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    Is anyone aware of a bureaucrat/public employee who has been layed off?

  10. #680
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    starting strength coach development program
    Some hospitals in NYC are now splitting ventilators, despite multiple medical organizations stating this cannot be done safely with standard equipment.

    https://www.asahq.org/about-asa/news...per-ventilator

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