Economic and social disruption: The potential consequences on the global economy are
already tangible. February 22-28 was the worst week for global markets since 2008 and the
worse may lie ahead. Moreover, some political decisions may be confounded with alternative
motives.
Lockdowns weaponized by suppressive regimes can create a precedent for easy
adoption in the future. Closure of borders may serve policies focused on limiting immigration.
Regardless, even in the strongest economies, disruption of social life, travel, work, and school
education may have major adverse consequences.
The eventual cost of such disruption is notoriously difficult to project. A quote of $2.7
trillion13 is totally speculative. Much depends on the duration of the anomaly.
The global
economy and society is already getting a major blow from an epidemic that otherwise (as of
March 14) accounts for 0.01% of all 60 million annual global deaths from all causes and that
kills almost exclusively people with relatively low life expectancy.
...
This year’s coronavirus outbreak is clearly unprecedented in amount of attention
received. Media have capitalized on curiosity, uncertainty and horror. A Google search with
“coronavirus” yielded 3,550,000,000 results on March 3 and 9,440,000,000 results on March 14.
Conversely, “influenza” attracted 30- to 60-fold less attention although this season it has caused
so far about 100-fold more deaths (15) globally than coronavirus.