starting strength gym
Page 73 of 3004 FirstFirst ... 23637172737475831231735731073 ... LastLast
Results 721 to 730 of 30039

Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #721
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Posts
    1,110

    Default

    • starting strength seminar april 2024
    • starting strength seminar jume 2024
    • starting strength seminar august 2024
    Rumors of a "structure change" of the Federal Reserve have been swirling around the Net for a couple years. A Bloomberg opinion piece (orange man bad) contains the following interesting hint regarding Virus Aid Package just signed into law:

    The Fed's Cure Risks Being Worse Than the Disease - Bloomberg on Yahoo News

    So how can they do this? The Fed will finance a special purpose vehicle (SPV) for each acronym to conduct these operations. The Treasury, using the Exchange Stabilization Fund, will make an equity investment in each SPV and be in a “first loss” position. What does this mean? In essence, the Treasury, not the Fed, is buying all these securities and backstopping of loans; the Fed is acting as banker and providing financing. The Fed hired BlackRock Inc. to purchase these securities and handle the administration of the SPVs on behalf of the owner, the Treasury.

    In other words, the federal government is nationalizing large swaths of the financial markets. The Fed is providing the money to do it. BlackRock will be doing the trades.

    This scheme essentially merges the Fed and Treasury into one organization. So, meet your new Fed chairman, Donald J. Trump.
    Fans of Creature from Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve are watching these developments closely.

    Perhaps there is a reason Trump chose Andrew Jackson's portrait for the oval office.

  2. #722
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    Murphysboro, IL
    Posts
    726

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Kitsuma View Post
    Perhaps there is a reason Trump chose Andrew Jackson's portrait for the oval office.
    That's probably the least of his reasons. Lotta similarities between the two. Both were very combative, although Jackson has a significant edge given his several duels and military exploits. They were both despised by the early beginnings of what we now call the swamp. Both had their issues with a marriage or several. Finally, Jackson had his indians and Trump has his Muslims to deal with.

  3. #723
    Join Date
    Sep 2015
    Posts
    63

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Yngvi View Post
    These comrades will receive medals of commendation. If you have done nothing wrong, you have nothing to fear.


    Another week, another excess mortality data set from the EU
    EURO MOMO

    EU excess mortality is still below normal, as is UK excess mortality.

    Italy excess mortality is only slightly above normal. Unless Italy has made it common practice to wait a month before reporting its deaths, we should be seeing a substantially higher than normal excess mortality figure.
    EXTREMELY interesting data. Thanks for posting. Three points of note:

    (1) Delay-adjusted excess mortality for Sweden doesn't show an uptick (they haven't closed down).
    (2) Delay-adjusted excess mortality for Spain doesn't show an uptick (they've been portrayed as particularly bad in the press).
    (3) Delay-adjusted excess mortality for Italy is slightly above normal. Definitely not worse than 2016-2017, however.

    I'd be curious to see this chart in a couple weeks.

  4. #724
    Join Date
    Sep 2019
    Posts
    205

    Default

    Here's a cool article where the author argues for deliberate exposure -- i.e. variolation. I didn't know that the viral exposure dose was so important to the lethality of an infection: Know When To Fold `Em

  5. #725
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Location
    Toronto, Ontario
    Posts
    1,003

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Yngvi View Post
    These comrades will receive medals of commendation. If you have done nothing wrong, you have nothing to fear.


    Another week, another excess mortality data set from the EU
    EURO MOMO

    EU excess mortality is still below normal, as is UK excess mortality.

    Italy excess mortality is only slightly above normal. Unless Italy has made it common practice to wait a month before reporting its deaths, we should be seeing a substantially higher than normal excess mortality figure.

    excess mortality is exactly the sort of figure that can cut through uncertainties around case fatality rates and true infection rates, really glad someone's compiling it.

    One thing I don't understand from the "pooled number of deaths" figure is the green line. It's meant to represent delay adjusted deaths (i.e. how many currently infected will go on to die).

    But that will estimate how many people will die at a future time, so why are they plotting that line all the way back to the beginning of 2016?

    What am I missing?

    One of the darker elements to this whole affair is that surveillance tools are with certainty being developed to help track people's behaviours and statuses. There is a high risk of these tools being abused after the pandemic has finished reproducing in our species.

    Nevertheless, the data is fucking fascinating (assuming it's legit):

    https://twitter.com/TectonixGEO/stat...28347034767361

    And, from Grant Sanderson (3Blue1Brown), who along with Rip, is one of my greatest teachers, a very cool spatial model of viral spread:

    YouTube

  6. #726
    Join Date
    Sep 2015
    Posts
    63

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by spacediver View Post
    excess mortality is exactly the sort of figure that can cut through uncertainties around case fatality rates and true infection rates, really glad someone's compiling it.

    One thing I don't understand from the "pooled number of deaths" figure is the green line. It's meant to represent delay adjusted deaths (i.e. how many currently infected will go on to die).

    But that will estimate how many people will die at a future time, so why are they plotting that line all the way back to the beginning of 2016?

    What am I missing?
    If I understand their methods section correctly (which is confusing AF), the system is tracking the number of deaths reported over a particular week. The adjustment, therefore, is to correct for the fact that not all reports are coincident with the time of death. For example, during Christmas holidays you might see very few deaths reported because offices are closed for most of the week; and in the subsequent week the death toll may jump because of the backlog.

    This is important because the surveillance system wants to track the true underlying variations in mortality, and smooth out artefactual variations due to administrative complexity.

    So the adjustment applies to all time-periods, not just future ones.

  7. #727
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Location
    Toronto, Ontario
    Posts
    1,003

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by abduality View Post
    If I understand their methods section correctly (which is confusing AF), the system is tracking the number of deaths reported over a particular week. The adjustment, therefore, is to correct for the fact that not all reports are coincident with the time of death. For example, during Christmas holidays you might see very few deaths reported because offices are closed for most of the week; and in the subsequent week the death toll may jump because of the backlog.

    This is important because the surveillance system wants to track the true underlying variations in mortality, and smooth out artefactual variations due to administrative complexity.

    So the adjustment applies to all time-periods, not just future ones.
    Makes perfect sense, thanks for condensing that together (I hadn't seen the methods section, but after reading it, yea, not the most well explained!).

    So delay adjusted deaths can apparently mean two things: the first (relevant to the euromomo data) is attempting to model the actual time of death based on reported time of death, and the second basically tries to compensate for the fact that some people who are infected at time T will go on to die (and if you take your estimate of case fatality risk at time T, you need to take these future deaths into account).

    So, looking at the data, it's undeniable that across Europe as a whole, there's been lower excess mortality this flu season (which seems to be a trend over the last 2-3 years).

    I'll be very curious to see this data in a month from now, to see if that second spike appears.

    Nevertheless, there are some worrying figures coming out of Italy, Spain, UK, and New York.

    Do we have historical data on peak daily influena related deaths in any of these regions?

  8. #728
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Location
    Yucaipa
    Posts
    110

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM View Post
    The government of Sweden, many people's idea of a sensible and compassionate country, has announced they do not intend to implement a lockdown, are permitting mass gatherings, and are encouraging businesses to remain open:

    Coronavirus in Sweden: why the largest country without any lockdown measures thinks its approach will pay off
    How come none of you are singing Sweden's praises right now? Are you all salty now that the term "socialist paradise" is quite literal and can no longer be bandied about as a pejorative?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jovan Dragisic View Post
    But yeah, I'm completely with you that what we are seeing now is a repeat of the Roman collapse, but farcical (see what I did there?), since we can now, among many other things, follow the opinions of the mob in real time.
    I can assure you, Jovan, that I am the only one on this forum who caught the reference (e.g., see above). I'll take the farce over the tragedy, for what its worth...

    Also, I snapped a photo of a woman in her 70s in a wheelchair at the MVD in Phoenix today. She wasn't wearing any PPE at all and had her wheelchair pressed right up against the counter, way past the "social distancing" red line. This woman almost single handedly restored my faith in humanity.

  9. #729
    Join Date
    Jul 2019
    Posts
    1,366

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by spacediver View Post
    excess mortality is exactly the sort of figure that can cut through uncertainties around case fatality rates and true infection rates, really glad someone's compiling it.

    One thing I don't understand from the "pooled number of deaths" figure is the green line. It's meant to represent delay adjusted deaths (i.e. how many currently infected will go on to die).

    But that will estimate how many people will die at a future time, so why are they plotting that line all the way back to the beginning of 2016?

    What am I missing?

    One of the darker elements to this whole affair is that surveillance tools are with certainty being developed to help track people's behaviours and statuses. There is a high risk of these tools being abused after the pandemic has finished reproducing in our species.

    Nevertheless, the data is fucking fascinating (assuming it's legit):

    https://twitter.com/TectonixGEO/stat...28347034767361

    And, from Grant Sanderson (3Blue1Brown), who along with Rip, is one of my greatest teachers, a very cool spatial model of viral spread:

    YouTube

    As abduality said, there is a methods section. My interpretation was the same as his. We need to watch it for a couple more weeks to confirm.

    The reason it goes back to 2016 (I believe they have data back to 2009 somewhere) is because it is just a general excess mortality tracker that was created long before the current pandemic.


    Of more interest related to increased use of tracking tools:

    Watch the recent interviews of Bill Gates. Do his answers match the recommendations here: Event 201 Why not?

    In October 2019, an organization supported by the Gates Foundation conducted a pandemic exercise with global leaders and executives called event 201. The exercise featured a corona virus with similar properties Sars-Cov-2.

    I am speculating this Microsoft initiative may be the reason his answers do not match:

    ID2020 | Digital Identity Alliance
    NEC and Simprints join forces with Gavi to extend vaccination coverage with biometrics | Biometric Update
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/we-need...ion_major_pos5

  10. #730
    Join Date
    Feb 2019
    Posts
    107

    Default

    starting strength coach development program
    Some more interesting reading

    From 2013 to 2017, Italy consistently has a higher influenza-attributable excess mortality compared to other European countries. especially in the elderly:
    Investigating the impact of influenza on excess mortality in all ages in Italy during recent seasons (2013/14–2016/17 seasons)

    Italian ICUs are regularly overwhelmed by seasonal flu
    October 2018 - Milan, intensive care to collapse due to the flu: 48 seriously ill patients have many operations postponed

    And another round of modelling has been published this week by Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya, professors of medicine at Stanford University. They concluded that about six million Americans could already have the virus, suggesting a death rate of 0.01 per cent, one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1 per cent.
    Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •