COVID19 Factors We Should Consider COVID19 Factors We Should Consider - Page 81

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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider

  1. #801
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    Quote Originally Posted by mpalios View Post
    Can you please give the source the the 35% and 450%? Not because I don't believe you, but so that I can cite the source if needed ("saw it on a strength board" doesn't hold water...).

    I also think in addition to suicide/death, you're going to have a spike in divorces...broken families...etc. now, I'm not a gloom/doom guy, you can't scold those who are extreme on one end (everyone will die of coronavirus), and be extreme on the other (everyone is getting a divorce, and turning to suicide). The reality of what will happen, either way, is in the middle (IMO).
    If you become too trusting of me, I might get sloppy and make mistakes. I read several papers. Here is one: https://www.tfah.org/report-details/adsandmillennials/ It quotes the opioid increase as 500%. I did see %450 somewhere that I can no longer find.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jovan Dragisic View Post
    My guess is, the US government, like all other governments all over the world, is preparing for a quarantine that will last significantly longer than is being led to believe right now..
    Some of us have been saying this for a while now. My guess is social unrest will be what breaks it eventually.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaimi Kuenzli View Post
    I'll be keeping my eye on Virginia now. They just announced a shutdown until June 10th: Virginia Governor Ralph Northam - March

    Imagine telling every working (or currently unemployed) body in your state that they're fucked, for 70 days.
    Imagine telling them they are fucked, AND the government is coming to take your guns AND you must be at home while they do it AND you may not gather to protest these actions.

  2. #802
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    This one may be a better source for number and info on deaths of despair and how they are tied to recessions or economic damage: Long-Term Trends in Deaths of Despair - Long-Term Trends in Deaths of Despair - United States Joint Economic Committee

  3. #803
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gerald Boggs View Post
    To be fair, and mind you, I don't like this piss-ass, liberal, anti gun, governor, the order is less draconian then it sounds. Here's a newspaper highlighting some of it.
    Open or closed: How Governor Northam’s stay-at-home order affects you | 8News
    Gerald, how many small businesses can be closed for 70 days and survive? Who decided what was essential and what was not?

  4. #804
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ramus View Post
    This may have been posted before; an interview with Dr John Ioannidis of Stanford University.
    YouTube
    Half an hour into this. So far, very good interview.

    Surprised nothing about the high transmissibility of the virus has been discussed (yet). That seems to be an important part of this story, and affects the (temporal) death rate independently of case fatality risk.

    I do hope that reason reigns over both panic and pathological skepticism, and that communities take this opportunity to watch closely, collect relevant data, and adapt decision making in order to optimize outcomes. As Ionnidis says: "we need to think smart"

    (e.g. communities that have younger, healthier populations may not have to enact such extreme social distancing measures, and may not need as much in the way of medical supplies).

    We'll learn a lot over the next few days. In particular, I'm curious to see the daily death rate in New York.

    I think death occurs 2-3 weeks after infection

    The social distancing measures in New York seem to have kicked off properly on March 14th, which was ~2 weeks ago.

    Best case scenario is that the peak death rate has just passed.

    We're gonna need to wait 2-3 more days to be more confident, but here's a glimmer of hope:

    Imgur: The magic of the Internet

    If the peak indeed was yesterday, then the state may have saved itself from an even bigger shit storm by acting when it did.

  5. #805
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yngvi View Post
    Some of us have been saying this for a while now. My guess is social unrest will be what breaks it eventually.
    I think it will either be broken by the virus receding on its own or a vaccine being developed.

  6. #806
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Just out of curiosity, what do you do for a living?
    Why is that relevant? Just to be clear, I think over 1 month of lockdown is not tenable, either. 2 months is just not doable.

  7. #807
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gerald Boggs View Post
    To be fair, and mind you, I don't like this piss-ass, liberal, anti gun, governor, the order is less draconian then it sounds. Here's a newspaper highlighting some of it.
    Open or closed: How Governor Northam’s stay-at-home order affects you | 8News
    I understand what it means for daily life, we're living it right now here in WA. My concern is with people losing hours or actually being laid off. And the businesses who don't have patrons anymore.
    Over here our state gov *might* loosen things up after April 8th. We're only 2 weeks in and already feeling it. If someone told me to keep it up for 8 more I'd tell them to get their head checked.

  8. #808
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Gerald, how many small businesses can be closed for 70 days and survive? Who decided what was essential and what was not?

    I agree, this is wrong and completely unnecessary. A lot of restaurants, bars, and social event venues are not coming back. I was just clarifying that the entire state was not shut down. Criticism of the Governor's actions are deserved, but shouldn't be exaggerated. A lot of places that have already shut down, have done so locally or by their own choice and in response to the fear mongering, not from any order of the state.

    Oddly, my sales are about the same as last year with income up 19%. I won't really know how this all plays out until summer.

  9. #809
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    Quote Originally Posted by abduality View Post
    Yup. For the politicians, there's zero incentive to NOT being draconian -- especially when the masses are clamoring to give up their liberty. This is strong leadership, they say.
    Strong leadership. Even today, the geezers mourn the loss of Stalin's strong leadership. I am discovering to my amazement, even in nearly all-red Southern Illinois how many would-be informeller Mitarbeiter just itching to snitch to the Stasi's.

  10. #810
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yngvi View Post
    This one may be a better source for number and info on deaths of despair and how they are tied to recessions or economic damage: Long-Term Trends in Deaths of Despair - Long-Term Trends in Deaths of Despair - United States Joint Economic Committee
    The paper you linked seems to draw the opposite conclusion (absence of a link from deaths of despair to economic trends):

    Finally, it is worth emphasizing how challenging the trends in this paper are for theories that explain rising “despair” by referring to either economic trends or social capital trends. It is very difficult to find such trends that improve over the 1970s and 1980s, then worsen after either 1990 or 2000.
    Also, the recent rise in “deaths of despair” appears to be driven almost entirely by opioids, starting in 2000 and rising steadily through boom and bust. I think there are other factors here besides recession.

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