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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #1161
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    Nothing alarming as of the England & Wales figures up until 27 March 2020.
    The latest week 13 figures for Influenza and pneumonia are not too dissimilar to the 5 year average.

    Source: Number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and risk in the UK - GOV.UK

    Fig: The number of deaths involving COVID-19 and "Influenza and Pneumonia" increased compared with the previous week
    Number of deaths registered by week, England and Wales, 28 December 2019 to 27 March 2020

    Notes 1. Figures include deaths of non-residents.
    2. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.
    3. Estimates for 2020 are provisional.
    4. The ICD-10 definitions are as follows: COVID-19 (U07.1 and U07.2), Influenza and Pneumonia (J09-J18).
    5. A death can be registered with both COVID-19 and Influenza and Pneumonia mentioned on the death certificate, therefore a death may be counted in both categories.
    Unit Number of deaths

    Week no. / All deaths - 2020 All deaths - 5-year average / Influenza and pneumonia mentions - 2020 / Influenza and pneumonia mentions - 5-year average COVID-19
    1 12254 12175 2596 2775 0
    2 14058 13822 2994 3427 0
    3 12990 13216 2686 3299 0
    4 11856 12760 2427 3028 0
    5 11612 12206 2267 2789 0
    6 10986 11925 2045 2654 0
    7 10944 11627 1978 2551 0
    8 10841 11548 1945 2539 0
    9 10816 11183 1863 2410 0
    10 10895 11498 1813 2413 0
    11 11019 11205 1853 2326 5
    12 10645 10573 1841 2120 103
    13 11141 10130 2090 1983 539

  2. #1162
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frank_B View Post
    I think I was with your frame of thought until a day or two ago. Then I realized something. Let’s take NYC: They’ll be on lockdown till, I don’t know... let’s say June 1st. Then things in the busiest city in America start moving again. Eventually, flights will open back up. And, now let’s say some asymptomatic asshole from another country coughs on a subway hand rail. The whole thing starts all over again. What do we do? Just keep shutting the city and the country down time and time again? Do we just repeat the same process until everyone gets it anyway?! We’re just delaying the inevitable.

    How about this... How about we let those under 55 with no discernible health conditions have a CHOICE. That’s the vast majority of America’s workforce. You’re over 55 or have a chronic health condition? Stay home. You can go out if you like, but you’re “forgiven” (let the bureaucrats work out what that means) if you stay home. Let the rest of us go out and build herd immunity. Do some of us die? Yeah... But then again... They’d have probably died anyway, Just six months down the road when their furloughed infection finally came back to haunt them.
    You have to remember that it was our terrible response to this pandemic at its onset that led us here. South Korea and the United States both had their first reported case on the same day. However, they are not currently under quarantine. Why?, expansive testing at the beginning of the outbreak and the ability to contact trace. We knew this was coming back in December, but we didn't take it seriously. Testing was delayed and poorly administered, therefore it was impossible to contain it. This is a failure of the current administration's response to the pandemic. Once the number of new cases is close to zero, your ability to trace the contacts of those who are affected will become feasible and only those who need to be quarantined will be. But you are right, if we do start to get this under control and we fail to continue with testing we will most certainly be back to where we started until a vaccine is made available.

  3. #1163
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrunoLawerence View Post
    Once the number of new cases is close to zero, your ability to trace the contacts of those who are affected will become feasible and only those who need to be quarantined will be. But you are right, if we do start to get this under control and we fail to continue with testing we will most certainly be back to where we started until a vaccine is made available.
    But I'm the dumbass?

    Here are the costs of your hysteria, just starting now:

    Authorities: Illinois man's COVID-19 worries prompt murder-suicide | News Headlines | kmov.com

  4. #1164
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    But I'm the dumbass?

    Here are the costs of your hysteria, just starting now:

    Authorities: Illinois man's COVID-19 worries prompt murder-suicide | News Headlines | kmov.com
    Yes, you don't seem to grasp the concept that I was speaking in generalizations and not absolutes. I'm not expecting it to actually reach zero, but at some point it should reach a level where you are able to contact trace those new cases that do show up which simply isn't feasible at this time. You know, the same type of generalizations you yourself make when someone asks you how much weight they should be able to lift given their body weight.

  5. #1165
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    Give us a general number, and your projected date that we may all be permitted to return to our lives as we see fit to live them.

  6. #1166
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jovan Dragisic View Post
    I even predict several new Ickes, a whole new market is opening, decentralized paranoia. Paranoia for the enlightened American or European gentleman, a product of higher education with a distrust for the accepted lies of the scientific community and their cronies in power, a love affair with his own intellect
    This describes at least one fitness organization (not Starting Strength).

  7. #1167
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    And once again, NYC data is interesting: Daily Counts:

    COVID-19: Data - NYC Health

  8. #1168
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Give us a general number, and your projected date that we may all be permitted to return to our lives as we see fit to live them.
    My generalized number is exactly 1.7895235841258 cases per week over a period of 3.255414 weeks. That number also only applies to a single county located in one of the 50 states, you can decide which one. (this is typically how you respond to this type of question yourself, correct?). However, this is what epidemiologists use statistical modelling for, which I am not pretending to be. If we had better testing at the onset and people adhered to the recommendations it would end much sooner, see South Korea's response vs ours.

    If you don't want to adhere to the recommendations and keep insisting that others shouldn't either, that's cool. My hospital can then be filled beyond capacity, the quarantine will last longer, and other will no longer have a life left to live. This appears to be what you are arguing for.

  9. #1169
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    Exactly. All you've got is myopic ER/hospital administrator bullshit. Meanwhile, hospitals across the country are empty, cancers go undiagnosed and untreated. And millions of jobs are lost permanently. Address that or you will be deleted.

  10. #1170
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Exactly. All you've got is myopic ER/hospital administrator bullshit. Meanwhile, hospitals across the country are empty, cancers go undiagnosed and untreated. And millions of jobs are lost permanently. Address that or you will be deleted.
    If you are not in one of the hot spots, you are correct. These hospitals are empty as non-emergent procedures are being cancelled and people are not coming in to the hospital with other routine concerns. Hospitals are giant petri dishes and infections can spread rapidly. I personally have a separate pair of shoes and change clothes before leaving the hospital on a normal day as I would prefer to not take the MRSA and pseuodmonas home with me (prior to the pandemic). Do you know how many cases of the simple flu are spread throughout the hospital normally? What do you think would happen when a new virus is introduced with no available vaccine? Is your solution to just let this go unchecked and run rampant in the community without the quarantine? That is how the hot spots start. Do you really think it would be safer for those with pre-existing conditions to be coming into the hospital after this has spread throughout the community unchecked and the number of cases inside the hospital has decreased?

    The economy will eventually recover. Yes, some jobs will be lost. However, there is also a good chance many of those jobs if not more would have been lost if we let this go unchecked. People won't be going to the store if people are becoming sick and dying. Even if you do become ill and survive, medical expenses will be incurred. People have no sick leave or savings. People will become bankrupt and lose their jobs just as they do now with other illnesses. Do you have a plan for that?

    This is not a binary choice between the economy and people's health. You will not save the economy by risking peoples health/lives. There is no good option here. The fastest way to get back to living your life is to limit the spread, continue vigorous testing, and eventually get a vaccine in place. If we can limit the spread and continue with testing we should be able to restart the economy prior to the vaccine. However the longer we drag our heals and not adhere to recommendations the longer this lasts. Then yes, you are right and you will have more problems where cancers will go diagnosed and people will ignore warning signs of heart attacks, etc, creating even more problems than we already have.

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