COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

[Gerald Boggs]

#1 - They (NY) just may be ahead of VA of things time wise. Remember about 3 weeks ago when Italy first started looking like hell on earth, and everything was still fine in NY? Like that.

See the difference?
VA is a joke compared to NY or NJ density wise....and just in overall population in general.
And VA doesn't anywhere NEAR the mass transit system NY/NJ does.
And I don't mean any of this in a negative way against VA.

NY was 7 days first case before VA. I think you have discounted the volume of traffic both US and overseas, DC/North Virginia and the Norfolk area experiences. I'm actually surprised by those areas low numbers, I thought/hoped DC/NOVA would be a wasteland by this time. Oh well, wishful thinking :-)

Didn't take it that way, just figured you for a Yankee.

OK, turns out I exaggerated, no football on the beach unless you already live together. Been reading the FAQ, and must say, parts of the order are odd. Like barbers and salons are closed, but home visits are OK.

[ltomo]

But this is all based on the assumption that, without the attempt to reduce the number of deaths, the economy would not crash. What I want to know -- and have asked you several times now: do you honestly think that in the midst of this sort of epidemic, the economy will not crash entirely on its own? By your own assumption, you are talking about an epidemic that will kill 2 million people and therefore hospitalize several times more than that (i.e. a significant fraction of the population), all in the space of a few months. Let's not even worry about overload on hospitals and how that will cause higher mortality rates. Just based on those numbers alone, you think people will just go on with their lives, i.e. go to work, eat in restaurants, go to the gym?

Multiple people have addressed this issue, myself included. Don't bag on Rip for dodging issues when you're doing the exact same thing.

The economy would not tank if the news media and government treated this like H1N1 or a bad bout of the flu, which is essentially what it is. There would be some reduced business in certain areas, retail and restaruants might be down, but there would be no danger of a recession. The people most at risk are old people. All the old people I know who are worried are staying home. They weren't doing much producing for the economy anyways.

The working-age people I know are chomping at the bit to get back to work and get their kids back in school. They've watched the news, done their own research, and are unconvinced by talking heads on the television. A very large, silent group in this country does not spend its days glued to the news. They are tired of this, and these types of shenanigans guarantee more people like Donald trump will be elected in the future.

The idea that a nationwide, mixed market health care industry would be overwhelmed by this thing is absurd. New York and large metropolises might struggle for a week or two, but that comes with the territory I'm afraid.

[lazygun37]

Lazy: I don't care if the death count in NYC is twice the average.

Then why suggest without evidence that it’s exaggerated?

[George Christiansen]

If we knew that, without the attempt to reduce the number of deaths, the economy would not crash,
But this is all based on the assumption that, without the attempt to reduce the number of deaths, the economy would not crash.

On one side we have some pretty shitty guessing about a novel virus and on the other hand we have a ton of reliable data about what has happened in the past based on economic factors like unemployment and such.

You assume that without this government sponsored panic driving people to hospitals that people would even notice the deaths that are so far a rounding error in overall deaths.

You assume that even though people are not even close to the delusional 90% compliant with SIP orders claimed on this board and even though the myriad of ways that people too stupid to change their glove and mask or stay 6' apart even when attempting to comply has saved lives rather than the buildup of herd immunity and warmer weather.

I assume that anyone who is scared of getting this thing now and wants to wait four years for a reliable vaccine can hide out and be completely unaffected by the level of virus being spread among the people who would rather take the risk, while also benefit from having more of an economy to sustain them and to eventually step out into later.

I assume that all the people who are clearly not following martial law lite orders would happily go back to work, which would be better for the economy even though some people would certainly be spooked and stay in hiding and that would certainly have an economic cost.

It isn't save live or don't choice and it isn't crash the economy or don't choice.

I have no doubt that a sensible plan where hot spots are genuinely quarantined and travel from there forbidden and where those at high risk were simply warn, but left to risk getting killed off if they wish would still hurt the economy, but not even close to the current actions have.

[Mark Rippetoe]

Let me get this straight:

• People did not freak out completely during an epidemic that -- without the need for any social interventions -- killed 12,000 people in one year.
• Therefore they will clearly also not freak out during an epidemic that -- with massive social interventions in place -- will kill 60,000 people in one month.

That's.... interesting.

This is fucking pointless.

[peng]

kind of related. Bill Gates AMA from 3 weeks ago: I’m Bill Gates, co-chair of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. AMA about COVID-19. : Coronavirus


Answering "What changes are we going to have to make to how businesses operate to maintain our economy while providing social distancing?"

The question of which businesses should keep going is tricky. Certainly food supply and the health system. We still need water, electricity and the internet. Supply chains for critical things need to be maintained. Countries are still figuring out what to keep running.
Eventually we will have some digital certificates to show who has recovered or been tested recently or when we have a vaccine who has received it.

[LuciusSulla]

I think we’re missing the geopolitical aspects of this. While everyone in the West is locked down, China is opening up again. A crisis they caused is now their opportunity. Here in Australia the government has had to make it clear that Australian businesses currently on their asses are not for sale at knock down prices to Chinese companies, because YES they are already trying this on. The lock down has created a gap into which China, oblivious or uncaring of its own COVID 19 casualties, is rapidly moving into. It might be this virus which sees America pushed into number 2 position, which is an extremely worrisome prospect.

[Mark Rippetoe]

The question of which businesses should keep going is tricky. Certainly food supply and the health system. We still need water, electricity and the internet. Supply chains for critical things need to be maintained. Countries are still figuring out what to keep running.
Eventually we will have some digital certificates to show who has recovered or been tested recently or when we have a vaccine who has received it.

What is this "we" shit?

[FlamingoDeFranc]

The CDC has their own peroragatives. CDC "disclaimers" hide financial conflicts of interest - Lown Institute

Aside from all of the pharmaceutical commercials played out, those companies also have a vested interest in the media outlets and have their own ways of controlling the narrative. Big Pharma - Drug & Device Companies, Lawsuits & Facts

And now there are questions on the validity of the current death toll by Covid19.....if we even have to question it or defend it, then the integrity is in question. And when the integrity is in question we need better proof before we continue to keep the entire world shut down.

[Rob Waskis]

The picture that's already emerging internationally is that the correct response is that which places like South Korea and New Zealand have deployed: drastic early and immediate interventions with massive testing, quarantining and contact tracing. Their examples seems to show -- so far at least -- that these responses allow early suppression, following which normality can be restored much earlier and without nearly as much economic damage.

So is this the answer to the questions I asked you this morning (that you never addressed)? The only answer is martial law, ankle bracelets, movement tracking, etc.

Another question for you that you will probably ignore: are you ok with the government telling Walmart what they can and can not sell?

Walmart, Costco, Target are banned from selling 'non-essential' items such as clothing and electronics in parts of the US | Markets Insider