The Outcome or The Process?

by Mark Rippetoe | February 20, 2024

“What should I be squatting?” – or deadlifting, or pressing, or benching is a very common concern among novice lifters. To an extent it's a valid concern, because everybody wants to know how they're doing, and the weight on the bar is the only valid way to judge strength training progress. If you're not lifting more weight, you're not getting stronger.

But their question is always, “How much weight should I be squatting on October 15, 2024?” And the only possible answer is, “You should be squatting the weight that is generated by the process of going up 5 pounds a workout until October 15.” It is the process that dictates the number, not the number that dictates the process.

And even that will not be exact, due to the nature of human existence. We get sick, we have wrecks, we lose our jobs, our lovers stab us in the ass, our gyms burn down, we get accused of Insurrection, our parents die, aliens steal the atmosphere – things like that will always interfere with the process. These things are beyond our control, and only the most steely of heart can train under all adverse circumstances. Most of us are not made of adamantium, there will be holes in the process, and the outcome of the process is therefore not perfectly predictable.

What is certain is that you will be stronger than you are now if you are in general control of the process. If you show up for 95% of your workouts, if you incrementally increase the loads in a reasonable way (“5 pounds” is a euphemism for a small manageable incremental increase), and if you eat and sleep as physiologically necessary for recovery, you can project a rough estimate of the numbers that should be obtainable by October 15 – and it will probably be wrong, but still in the ballpark.

But really, what difference does it make? Unless you are a competitor in a meet on October 15 who needs to do a qualifying total for a subsequent competition, the number itself does not matter. The trend of the numbers matters. If you have been stuck for 3 weeks, you are not doing the program, and if the process is not followed it cannot generate the numbers.

Properly applied, the program always works, every single time. The process of stress/recovery/adaptation is built into your DNA – in fact, that's what DNA is for: adapting the organism to its environment. If you subject an organism to a change in its environment that is manageable and provide for the recovery from that stress, adaptation occurs so that the organism does not succumb to the stress.

Yes, it is in fact that fundamental a process – damn near a physical law – and we are merely taking advantage of it by carefully and correctly manipulating stress and recovery to facilitate adaptation to the production of more force. The very Stuff Of Life is at our disposal here, if we just learn how to use it. Granted, there are variations in what the correct application of these principles looks like, depending on age, size, sex, access to rest and food, and the magnitude of the stress itself. But, correctly applied, the process has the same outcome for everybody, even though the numbers will vary.

Asking me what you should be squatting on 10/15/24 is like asking me what you're going to have for lunch that day. I have a general idea, but there may be a new restaurant open by then. The only thing we can say for sure is that you should be squatting 5 pounds more than you squatted on 10/13.