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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #1671
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    Quote Originally Posted by wiigelec View Post
    And to conclude with something that is not an ad hominem, would you have any inclination towards discussing any of the contrary data that has been presented?
    At the risk of turning this into a serious discussion: I have been trying to do that the entire time -- i.e. look carefully at the data people cited in support of their conclusions. Now, I've obviously not been able to look at literally every post that's been made, and I've definitely prioritized instances where problems or errors were just blatant.

    But -- and I mean this seriously -- if you point me to the best contrary data set in your view, I will take an open-minded and careful look at it. And if I think it's solid and supports your conclusion, I will say so. And either way I'll explain my reasoning, so you'll be able to vet it.

  2. #1672
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    Quote Originally Posted by abduality View Post
    The so-called "prediction" models should be an embarrassment to those who built them. It boggles the mind how anyone could defend them.

    The officially sanctioned IHME model is a joke. Set aside the fact its death projections were revised from 240K to 60K within a matter of days. Just look at its uncertainty bounds. I mean, how is it useful? For tomorrow, it's prediction for nationwide hospital bed demand ranges from 13K to 181K...right, let me plan across two orders of magnitude.
    Just to be clear, are your criticisms also directed at the imperial college model?

  3. #1673
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    Just another way they're going to manipulate the data. The article mentions they want to categorize between 'deaths' and 'probable deaths'. Easy to see how that can get confusing for these wizards. If there's a will there's a way. And they have a will to keep the narrative rolling.....

    Coronavirus: Why has NYC death toll suddenly surged? - BBC News

  4. #1674
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    I've obviously not been able to look at literally every post that's been made
    You asked about an “unchecked” outbreak in response to criticism of the Imperial College model which was answered with cited data to which you provided a straw man response that was countered and you have yet to again respond. I’ll leave it up to you to locate the appropriate posts if you are indeed interested in discussing...

  5. #1675
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rob Waskis View Post
    I can't tell if you're joking, or if you're a Lazytroll37 sock puppet, or if you're serious.

    The numbers I posted come from the WHO Sitreps. They are labeled "Total new deaths". They offer the following caveat for cases: "Due to differences in reporting methods, retrospective data consolidation, and reporting delays, the number of new cases may not always reflect the exact difference between yesterday’s and today’s totals. WHO COVID-19 Situation Reports present official counts of confirmed COVID-19 cases, thus differences between WHO reports and other sources of COVID-19 data using different inclusion criteria and different data cutoff times are to be expected."

    Interestingly, I did exactly as you suggested and clicked on the link you provided. When I did, the peak of the Tidsserie: Avlidna per dag chart was 4/7/20 at 90. This is obviously quite different from 114 and thus invalidates the entire premise that Sweden has not locked everything down but is not experiencing exponential growth in their death rates.

    I'm glad that we've gotten these terribly important clarifications out of the way.

    My apologies, I think there's been a misunderstanding. I was just trying to help you and everyone else understand the COVID19 death rate in Sweden in closer detail.

    Anyway, here's an interesting website that contains a statistical detailing the weekly death rate in Sweden from 2015 up until 2020.

    Statistics Sweden to publish preliminary statistics on deaths in Sweden

  6. #1676
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yngvi View Post
    Yeah, I heard about that one. Guess only a crazy person would question the government, it just wants to help.

    Quote Originally Posted by Yngvi View Post
    Careful, the AMA and Bill Gates say defunding those bureaucrats would be dangerous: Bill Gates says Trump's decision to halt WHO funding is 'as dangerous as it sounds'
    Yeah, if it's "as dangerous as it sounds" to me, I'm not at all concerned. I'm sure there are on-the-ground type medical professionals in the organization who do good work (especially if tales that they were recommending travel restrictions in the early days are true). But I do not trust everyone above them sitting at a desk making decisions (especially if the tales that those travel restriction recommendations existed and were overruled and suppressed are true). When he announced that de-funding I was thrilled.

  7. #1677
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  8. #1678
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    Looks like 4,000 criminals released from LA County Jails today... and gun shops are now closed (again) there.

  9. #1679
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    The fact that everyone is still trying to compare covid-19 to a regular flu season in this thread is absolutely depressing. This pandemic has already killed as many people as a typical flu season in about half the time WITH dramatic social interventions! When I last responded here there were ~13K deaths. Now there have been nearly 30K deaths and growing. That was 1 week ago! Yes, the original model (which was based on if the virus ran through the country without interventions) overestimated the number of deaths. But as was mentioned, those models were what was expected to happen if we did nothing. The interventions are working. If the interventions were lifted, would you really want to go to a movie, concert, or large sporting event anytime soon?

    Is now the time to open the country back up? I would agree that the timeline for this should be based on where you live and some areas are closer than others. Does rural Montana require the same constraints as NYC? Probably not. However, proper protocols need to be put in place before this happens. We need appropriate testing so contact tracing can be performed, which is not happening. What we are left with is an administration that did not take this virus seriously at the onset. Established poor procedures and protocols which allowed this to spread rapidly. We have an administration who wanted to promote propaganda and falsehoods. Oops, it turns out hydroxycholoroquine isn't all that effective against the virus based on the most recent studies. We have an administration who is too worried about blaming others than developing solutions. We are now attempting to defund the World Health Organization?? WTF?!? When did the WHO become the enemy? The United States is doing far worse than most other countries when it comes to dealing with this. Instead, we have a President who is more concerned with putting his name on paper stimulus checks (likely delaying when people will receive them) to score some political points for the election. What episode of the twilight zone is this?

    The lack of leadership and piss poor response we have had to this pandemic is going to do nothing more than prolong it, which will do far further damage to the economy in the long run. So maybe some of the folks that I was arguing with have a point. We should simply have done nothing and let this thing run its course, costing possibly millions of lives. Given this country's lack of leadership we will be digging ourselves out of this for a long time after other countries have recovered. Most of the world will probably end up with a travel ban on Americans if this keeps up. I guess that is how we are making america great again.

    Quote Originally Posted by RKC View Post
    Looks like 4,000 criminals released from LA County Jails today... and gun shops are now closed (again) there.
    I guess that would be a failure of the criminal justice system if we released 4000 inmates convicted of nonviolent crimes and they all turn violent after their release.

  10. #1680
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cody Annino View Post
    Could be. Let's not forget that the US no doubt pissed off the PRC when there was bi-partisan resolution from Congress in support of the Hong Kong protests. Personally, I'm of the belief or Intelligence Community fomented those protests to bring additional pressure on the PRC during trade negotiations last year. This belief is based mainly on how quickly those protests died down after the trade agreement was settled.

    War by other means.

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