COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

[k_kws]

Coronavirus: Mar 3, 2020

This is excellent. I shall share it.

And tell people how stupid the media is about COVID. We all could use a little less hysteria around here.

[Kitsuma]

...after all, the whole population should be tested...

IPB

As an aside, what happens to the 2-3% mortality rate when the whole population is tested? Math happens and the mortality rate drops below 1%...perhaps even .05%.

Am I wrong? Or are the experts (CDC / Who / MSM) pretending to fail when they push the 2-3% mortality rate? Could this possibly be political?

[Matt James]

I think anybody who's following this seriously understands that the mortality rate, as it stands now, is based on very incomplete data, i.e. the most serious cases. That's pretty much par for the course for any emergent pathogen. As this plays out, the true R0 will likely be quite a bit higher than current estimates, and the true mortality rate will probably be quite a bit lower. Same thing happened with SARS. Not to mention that there's a really good chance that, given enough transmissions, the virus will mutate to be less deadly (although there's some evidence from Asia that this can also lead to reinfection with this particular bug).

Mild or asymptomatic cases are a known unknown here. You still calculate R0 and mortality based on known numbers, though.

[jfsully]

As an aside, what happens to the 2-3% mortality rate when the whole population is tested? Math happens and the mortality rate drops below 1%...perhaps even .05%.

Am I wrong? Or are the experts (CDC / Who / MSM) pretending to fail when they push the 2-3% mortality rate? Could this possibly be political?

The head of the CDC agrees with you.

COVID-19 Mortality Rate May Be 'Considerably Less Than 1%'

[muntz]

Did Trump Fire the US Pandemic Response Team?

Look, the current administration pushed out or at the very least allowed the pandemic team to quit did not replace them.

Trump even admitted it and said, it'd be easy to just "hire them back."

[Yngvi]

... (although there's some evidence from Asia that this can also lead to reinfection with this particular bug).

Look into the anal swabbings that led to this conclusion, then decide if the evidence is believable.

[Gerald Boggs]

On one hand we're being told not to panic buy and hoard. And on the other hand here's what the New York Times just printed "Prepare your family, and communicate your plan about evacuations, resources and supplies. Experts suggest stocking at least a 30-day supply of any needed prescriptions. Consider doing the same for food staples, laundry detergent and diapers, if you have small children." If you haven't already planned for the inconveniences that can sometimes come, then the only way to quickly build a 30 day supply is to buy a lot all at once, which sounds a lot like panic buying. Of course, if you've used common sense, then you already have a well stocked pantry.

[muntz]

The head of the CDC agrees with you.

COVID-19 Mortality Rate May Be 'Considerably Less Than 1%'

So, look, while a lot of the numbers are estimates, this may give you an idea of the serouslness of this pandemic:

The Spanish Flu of 1918 infected 1/3rd of the world's population with a mortality rate of 2-3% and it was estimated to have killed more than 25mm people. Today, the world's population is more than 4x that of 1918. So, if 1/3rd of teh world's population gets infected, then a .05% mortality rate is still pretty, pretty, pretty bad.

[Kitsuma]

[jfsully]

So, look, while a lot of the numbers are estimates, this may give you an idea of the serouslness of this pandemic:

The Spanish Flu of 1918 infected 1/3rd of the world's population with a mortality rate of 2-3% and it was estimated to have killed more than 25mm people. Today, the world's population is more than 4x that of 1918. So, if 1/3rd of teh world's population gets infected, then a .05% mortality rate is still pretty, pretty, pretty bad.

That would mean it would kill about a million or so people worldwide this year. That’s close to the same number of people killed this year by tuberculosis. I’m not saying that isn’t bad, but when’s the last time you saw a news story about tuberculosis?