So the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) claim is that the Earth's average global temperature has increased about 1° C since the start of the industrial revolution, because of humans - mostly white males, of course - spewing donaldtrumpdioxide into Gaia's perfect ecosystem, thereby threating all life on the planet.
Sure, there are countless problems with this line of "reasoning," but let's just focus on one basic but central point: What does average global temperature even mean?
As someone with a degree in geophysics from UCBerkeley, obtained way back when chicks-with-sticks didn't compete in women's sports, and uttering "scientific consensus" would have made you the laughing stock of the department, I for years have been wondering what the hell average global temperature even means. The Earth's ocean/atmospheric system is a far-from-equilibrium coupled chaotic dynamical system, with varied and variable energy throughput, so what in the blazes does an average global temperature physically mean, and even more elusive, what do microscopic changes in this pseudo-metric physically mean ... you know, in the real world?
A number of years ago I came across an article published in The Journal of Non-Equilibrium Thermodynamics titled: Does a Global Temperature Exist? It was very satisfying to read because it covered and confirmed EXACTLY the problems I was bringing up with alarmists - a true exercise in futility.
Here is a link from the Neil Bohr Institute: https://www.fys.ku.dk/~andresen/BAho...obalTexist.pdf
The TLDR version is this:
Abstract
Physical, mathematical, and observational grounds are employed to show that there is no physically meaningful global temperature for the Earth in the context of the issue of global warming. While it is always possible to construct statistics for any given set of local temperature data, an infinite range of such statistics is mathematically permissible if physical principles provide no explicit basis for choosing among them. Distinct and equally valid statistical rules can and do show opposite trends when applied to the results of computations from physical models and real data in the atmosphere. A given temperature field can be interpreted as both ‘‘warming’’ and ‘‘cooling’’ simultaneously, making the concept of warming in the context of the issue of global warming physically ill-posed.
The article is interesting if that's your thing. But some basic points are that:
- Non-equilibrium systems don't have an "average" temperature; it's a meaningless concept from the get-go.
- There are - like genders - an infinite number of averages you could define - arithmetic, geometric, etc.. There is no physical basis for choosing one over another, so it's whatever your little heart fancies, but different choices lead to different outcomes, this one making the Earth appear to be getting hotter, that one making it appear to be getting cooler.
- The same random choice exists for the time frame used to define "climate" (currently being 30 years). Pick a different time series, get a different answer. Oceans will boil away, or we're plunging back into the Quaternary Ice Age's coldest range ... hey, whatever you happen to identify with today. It's all good, bro.
- Don't even get me started on how "average global temperature" is somehow accurate to a 1/10th of a degree, and that 1/10th of a degree changes can be measured. And, um ... let's see some error bars, if you don't mind.
- And assuming these precision measurements, what does a 1/10th of a degree change physically (read: thermodynamically) mean when the difference between the hottest and coldest spots on Earth is about 150° C?
I could go on and on and on.
Life is short and precious, and arguing with idiots is the worst possible way to squander it. But still, I get so sick of being fire-hosed with this stupidity that it makes me want to go out there an commit some micro-aggression.