COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

[TonyE]

Nevertheless, 21 deaths / 1140 reported cases is not encouraging. That high of a ratio suggests testing isn't widespread. And testing is critical to efficient and strategic containment measures.

Here in Scotland (and the rest of the UK for that matter) they are not actively testing anyone outside hospitals. If you think you have it, you are told to ring the NHS 24 helpline for advice, stay at home for 7 or 14 days and that is that. Someone might come out and test you at a later date. Only if you are an at risk population, and symptoms worsen considerably, would you be admitted to hospital and they will test you there.

A senior government official said the other day that the number of actual cases could be between 5,000 and 10,000. That's a pretty wide estimate.

We're up to 35 deaths now.

[tallison]

Germany - for a host of reasons including early, decentralized testing - looks to have the most accurate numbers - but to compare apples to apples you have to calibrate for length of time since initial community spread. All the same, you can see a much lower fatality rate than the chicken-littles are scaring each other with. Multiplied by the population of the U.S., it still ain’t pretty.

[tallison]

Plus there is a difference in the death rate in a situation where the treatment infrastructure is adequate and the one when it is overwhelmed. So, again, rate of spread is critical given the best numbers as they currently look. The right measures that one takes depend a lot on the criticality of the situation, so, first and foremost one needs sufficient testing for accurate numbers (including good samples to project asymptomatic/underreported cases in the general population - normal science, in other words which can factor in typical human behavior on these fronts).

[Slow Uncle Joe]

It's not panic that is overwhelming Italian intensive care units. It's Wuhan flu patients with pneumonia who can't breathe without respirators. There's not enough respirators, and they have to let some die. This virus CAN do terrible things. It doesn't HAVE to if we act. The last thing I read from the Trump administration was pretty good, looks like they're doing a lot of the right things. Mobilizing industry to make what we need, tests, ventilators, etc. Hopefully they can just tear up whatever bureaucracy and regulation that gets in the way of what needs to be done. The CDC leadership needs to go the way of Admiral Kimmel. Also the USA has an enormous capacity for biomedical research, which needs to drop testing cosmetics (for example) and start [DEL]making P-38s[/DEL] testing treatments. And of course we need to back off from our fellow human beings, give the some room, and not breathe their air. I'd honestly rather go hungry for a couple days than stand in a line at Costco. I think this can be a short and successful war.

I don't watch TV, I try to read and listen to very smart people who understand the numbers, the biology, and the history of epidemics. This is a very serious threat that CAN kill hundreds of thousands, maybe millions with bad luck, but doesn't have to.

[Jorosi]

This may be relevant to the discussion. While not concerning covid19 specifically, it does detail the federal governments plan in the event of a biological pathogen/threat, plus lots of other interesting contingencies.

Obviously we have no way to know if the person responding is legit or not, given the fact that they would have no real reason to lie about this stuff, I’ll choose to believe them. Also, this was months in the past, before all the current happenings.
YouTube

I’ll warn you, these reddit videos on YouTube can be a dark rabbit hole to fall into..

[Mark Rippetoe]

We're up to 35 deaths now.

Deaths have soared again!

This may be relevant to the discussion. While not concerning covid19 specifically, it does detail the federal governments plan in the event of a biological pathogen/threat, plus lots of other interesting contingencies.

Obviously we have no way to know if the person responding is legit or not, given the fact that they would have no real reason to lie about this stuff, I’ll choose to believe them. Also, this was months in the past, before all the current happenings.
YouTube

I’ll warn you, these reddit videos on YouTube can be a dark rabbit hole to fall into..

I'm not going to watch this shit. Give us the summary.

[Jorosi]

It’s mostly what you would expect, it’s all about containment. Closing borders, identifying and isolating the infected until they are recovered or expire. Curfews and quarantines to prevent further spreading.

Given the fact that we aren’t at the point of national curfews and total closed borders, I take it to mean that this isn’t as big a threat as is being portrayed. If it was, we would have been all over it sooner with more drastic measures.

[Mark Rippetoe]

Given the fact that we aren’t at the point of national curfews and total closed borders, I take it to mean that this isn’t as big a threat as is being portrayed. If it was, we would have been all over it sooner with more drastic measures.

This is a terribly naive assumption -- that our government is actually capable of an accurate assessment of the data (despite the fact that the data is complete shit), and would then act with absolutely correct measures designed by selfless heroes working only for the benefit of The People. You must be 12.

[CommanderFun]

At this point it's looking like the economic damage stands to outstrip the actual death toll. Indefinite business shutdowns are not gonna go well. If it advances to curfewing I don't know how they even expect anything to work. There are jobs people can work from home. There are a lot of absolutely critical jobs that people cannot work from home.

[Geedubu]

I don’t see or hear anyone talking about the possibility that we have been exposed to this for some time. Doesn’t it seem plausible that this thing has been around since before November 2019. That is when the first known reported and tested case was recorded in China. Must have had at lease several hundred cases before this guy hit the hospital right. Seems reasonable to me this thing has been all over the world and was confused or mixed in with the more common flu and other sicknesses and untested. Now that we are testing and counting deaths shits hitting the fan- bet thousands of us have already had it thinking it was just the normal course of things or have it and have no symptoms. I know it doesn’t solve anything but thought it was good for thought- wish you all good health and some ease in the coming future- now go Squat!!