COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

[David A. Rowe]

You think they'll let Ukraine do as they please in Russia until the weather pushes them out?

I'm aware of the proverbs re attacking Russia in Winter.

I don't see how this extends to leaving a fully stocked air base with no drone defenses & sacrificing conveys of vehicles just for the sake of using up Ukranian ammunitions / slowing down their advance by a matter of hours.

Nuance is important. People who have been riding Putins d this whole time acting like this is business as usual / all going perfectly to plan is just. Not genuine to me.

It's not that it's all going accordingly. It's that Russia has always fought wars of attrition. The problem has always been running out of Ukrainians who can fight.

[Jason Donaldson]

You think they'll let Ukraine do as they please in Russia until the weather pushes them out?

I'm aware of the proverbs re attacking Russia in Winter.

I don't see how this extends to leaving a fully stocked air base with no drone defenses & sacrificing conveys of vehicles just for the sake of using up Ukranian ammunitions / slowing down their advance by a matter of hours.

Nuance is important. People who have been riding Putins d this whole time acting like this is business as usual / all going perfectly to plan is just. Not genuine to me.

Gotcha - thanks. Others here are of age, and may speak for themselves, of course, but no, I don't attribute the classic Russian ablation of soil and souls tactic to any sort of Putin mastermind plan. I'd say it's more a matter that Russia has historically been able to get away with all kinds of blunders and a certain careless approach simply because of their geography, size, weather, etc. It's just generally worked that all Russia has to do is wait and stall against any incursion, so they systemically don't have to be as worried about them, or get as excited about them as a smaller country differently situated would be.

So no, it's not like Russia just lets them do what they want until they're worn down, then comes back and whoops them, all Rocky Balboa style. But since they DO have a lot of room to mess up like this, all of the irrational exuberance that Ukraine's push means that Russia is doomed to fall and burn or some such is wishful thinking, to put it mildly.

I still don't anticipate a resolution where Ukraine regains Crimea and returns to where (or what) they were before this all started. This will probably end with a bigger Russia and a smaller Ukraine. Russia will internally be much as it has been all along, and Ukraine will be changed for the foreseeable future. As head of a household with deep personal ties to Ukraine that go back a lot longer than this situation, it pains me to say that, but that does seem to be the way it's heading.

[David Roberts]

Smokey, are you familiar with the old saying about Russia's two best generals, Mud and Winter? It's proverbial how Russia has repeatedly given up men and land to resist incursion until seasonal weather and its effects strangle out the invading forces. I think that's what Mr. Rowe and Mr. Roberts were getting at. (cf. Napoleon and Hitler)

You are right on point!

"Come in to my parlor, said the spider to the fly".

2024 redu of the Charge of the Light Brigade during the battle of Balaclava in 1854 and Russian/China supported battle at Dien Bien Phu in 1954. The stage is set, the battle field is being prepared.

You can bet that every inch of the territory captured by the Ukrainians has been registered for targeting. The Russians have been goading the Ukrainians to split their forces to weaken the defenses in the Donbas. By feinting an incursion towards Sumy, then engaging toward Karkiv the Russians got the Ukrainians to take the bait. Subsequently what looked like an open avenue to Kursk proved to be an overwhelming temptation for NATO, Ukraine once again took the bait further diluting defensive strength in the Donbass. Mission accomplished- Russian progress in the Dombas is now accelerating and the Kursk region has become a killing field where NATO equipment and Ukrainian soldiers will be destroyed. Putin will spare no expense, human or material.

"Our side", the side we are paying for- NATO- is being led by a senile US President, DEI generals, and a cocaine cowboy President of Ukraine. They are no match for Putin.

Underestimating your adversaries is a fatal mistake and no one should underestimate the Russians or Putin.