COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

[spacediver]

A whole lot we don't know about the Wuhan Flu. We DO know it can overwhelm hospitals, as it has done so in China and Italy, and threatens to do so in Washington State and other places. I don't think the Swine Flu ever did that.

I wonder why.

Same question went through my mind this morning (if the swine flu infected so many, how come our health care system didn't collapse even though extreme social distancing measures were not taken?).

Did a little digging, and turns out that not only was a vaccine able to be delivered within a few months, but about 30 percent of ppl (in particular those over the age of 60) already had partial immunity due to prior exposure to similar viruses.

Also, as far as I can tell, the case fatality rate of swine flu is about 0.02 percent, which is an order of magnitude or two lower than what covid-19 appears to be, so hospitals wouldn't have been experiencing the same stress levels.

[Mark Rippetoe]

Maybe this is relevant:

Army brought in to guard hospitals and supermarkets in UK fight against coronavirus – The Sun

First sentence: It comes as the death toll in the UK soared to 21 and plans were announced to isolate people over the age of 70 for four months.

The death toll in a nation of 66 million people SOARED to 21. This is an interesting use of the media.

[Nockian]

Maybe this is relevant:

Army brought in to guard hospitals and supermarkets in UK fight against coronavirus – The Sun

First sentence: It comes as the death toll in the UK soared to 21 and plans were announced to isolate people over the age of 70 for four months.

The death toll in a nation of 66 million people SOARED to 21. This is an interesting use of the media.

Hardly a mention of the grooming gangs though.

[CommanderFun]

Pretty sure I already caught this thing and my immune system put the smack down on it’s candy ass.

Just squat the virus away.

I'm thinking I had something real similar toward the latter portion of last year. It consisted of a wicked cough and a fever. It was definitely something out of the ordinary.

[johnst_nhb]

Maybe this is relevant:

Army brought in to guard hospitals and supermarkets in UK fight against coronavirus – The Sun

First sentence: It comes as the death toll in the UK soared to 21 and plans were announced to isolate people over the age of 70 for four months.

The death toll in a nation of 66 million people SOARED to 21. This is an interesting use of the media.

We’re beyond the point of no return with this crap now aren’t we?

[Gbraddock]

Maybe this is relevant:

Army brought in to guard hospitals and supermarkets in UK fight against coronavirus – The Sun

First sentence: It comes as the death toll in the UK soared to 21 and plans were announced to isolate people over the age of 70 for four months.

The death toll in a nation of 66 million people SOARED to 21. This is an interesting use of the media.

Holy hell it SOARED...to 21! LOL at the theatrics here.

This initial media hysteria will only be surpassed by The Monday morning Quarterbacking job that the main stream media will emoloy closer to November in the aftermath. None of us need wager a guess as to who handled this all wrong in their eyes!

[spacediver]

Maybe this is relevant:

Army brought in to guard hospitals and supermarkets in UK fight against coronavirus – The Sun

First sentence: It comes as the death toll in the UK soared to 21 and plans were announced to isolate people over the age of 70 for four months.

The death toll in a nation of 66 million people SOARED to 21. This is an interesting use of the media.

Nevertheless, 21 deaths / 1140 reported cases is not encouraging. That high of a ratio suggests testing isn't widespread. And testing is critical to efficient and strategic containment measures.

[Mark Rippetoe]

And the number of unreported/untested/asymptomatic cases is quite likely 10x that number, while we're pretty sure of the deaths. So, do that math too.

[spacediver]

And the number of unreported/untested/asymptomatic cases is quite likely 10x that number, while we're pretty sure of the deaths. So, do that math too.

Indeed, although it's also true that some proportion of infected folks who are currently alive will die, so there's a lag effect that needs to be accounted for. Some studies have tried to take this into account (e.g. here and here), but there's still so much uncertainty.

But yea, I get the sense that case fatality rates are initially overestimated due to the math you allude to.

Really, it seems the only way to get a reliable estimate of case fatality rate is by measuring antibodies in the general population after the pandemic runs its course.

Another thing to consider - the more virus there is out there, the greater the chances of an "unfortunate mutation" that might hit us in a second wave next winter (this is Phil Mason's speculation)

[Yngvi]

It looks like nearly all of the response protocols were put into place shortly after the 2009 Swine Flu epidemic. But, many stupid mistakes were made.

The writers of the protocols from about 2009-2014 somehow only considered the possibility that a flu virus would cause a future pandemic; The protocols we are following for Sars-Cov-2 are actually influenza protocols. I wish I had realized this fact sooner.

...The media panic promotion response, however is not explained by the above realization.